A panel of experts told a University of Wisconsin crowd Tuesday while it is difficult to predict trends of nuclear proliferation, some existing models can reveal which countries may succeed in producing nuclear weapons.

The panel members — researchers from the University of Illinois, North Carolina State University and UW — said, however, that models currently available cannot definitively determine which country will be the next to pursue nuclear weapons.

“We are a long way from answering the question ‘Who’s next after Iran and North Korea?'” said Andrew Kydd, panelist and UW political science professor.

In his research, Kydd used a variety of methods to evaluate the nuclear threat countries such as India and Pakistan pose to the international community.

Qualitative thinking, quantitative studies, forecasting methodology and game theory are all approaches political scientists use to predict nuclear proliferation, Kydd said. He added, however, there are many unexplainable variants that may not fit within one particular model.

Within these models, researchers examine factors like a country’s political economy, political rivalries they have in the international community and their concept of nationalism. A country with an open world economy, for example, would be less likely to pursue nuclear weapons than a country with a closed economy, like North Korea. These and many other variants all influence the decision to develop nuclear capabilities, Kydd said.

Katy Huff, a UW nuclear engineering graduate student and one of the panel’s organizers, said she thinks the political models researchers use to predict nuclear proliferation are challenging to understand because they attempt to measure abstract things like a country’s nuclear ambitions in quantifiable terms.

“From a technical perspective, I think the technical parts are really easy to model — like where are the materials and who has them (and) for how long do they need to have them before they make a weapon,” Huff said. “I think it’s the political modeling that is the biggest problem for me.”

Although the information gleaned from these analyses cannot necessarily predict the world’s next nuclear hotspot, it can be used to determine other indicators of a country’s nuclear potential.

The International Atomic Energy Agency, which is part of the United Nations, promotes peaceful nuclear research and distributes funds to member countries. Panelist Man-Sung Yim, a professor of engineering at North Carolina State University, said nuclear proliferation analysis models could help the IAEA prioritize its funding based on a country’s nuclear ambitions.

Political models also point to a need for a continuing commitment to decrease nuclear stock globally, starting with the United States and ending with China, said Clifford Singer, a professor of nuclear, plasma and radiological engineering at the University of Illinois.

Singer said the Obama administration’s nonproliferation policy is a step in the right direction but said future administrations need to follow a similar strategy that aims to prevent proliferation.

The ultimate goal, Yim said, is to change the world’s conception that nuclear weapons are a strategic and military necessity.

“We have to create an environment of culture that doesn’t require nuclear weapons,” Yim said.

Until that ideal becomes reality, the panelists said America must be able to function in a world where nuclear weapons exist.