American support for presidents tends to surge during international conflict or crisis, a phenomenon well-documented in the last century that has come to the forefront of national politics in the last 12 years.
The phenomenon is known as the “rally ’round the flag” effect, or simply the rally effect, and, in the last decade, it has polarized public opinion during times of fear and uncertainty.
The poll service Gallup recorded President Bush’s approval rating at 51 percent during the week before Sept. 11, 2001, but showed a leap to as high as 90 percent approval in the weeks immediately following the terrorist attacks.
Bush’s approval rating jumped again from a dip around 50 percent to more than 70 percent after the start of the war in Iraq.
The rally effect is evident in current public opinion polls that rate Bush’s approval at around 70 percent, according to Ken Mayer, professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin.
“There are two things we know about the rally effect. We know that it is real, and it doesn’t last forever,” Mayer said.
The first President Bush enjoyed his highest approval ratings shortly after the Persian Gulf War, but he failed in his reelection attempt 18 months later.
Mayer said in the 18 months between the end of the Gulf War and the 1992 presidential election, the public shifted its attention to a receding economy. When voters thought the elder Bush treated the economic situation apathetically, political analysts say, it allowed Bill Clinton to take the election by focusing on domestic issues.
“What happened to Bush One was the war ended in six weeks and in the next 18 months the public focused on domestic issues. The economy was in the doldrums and the perception was that wasn’t important to Bush,” Mayer said, explaining why the rally effect did not turn into a second term for the first President Bush.
But foreign and domestic realities are not the only factors in determining a president’s popularity. Donald Ferree, associate director of public opinion research at UW, said media often influences public opinion — or at least what the public have opinions about.
“The media effect was not persistent and permanent after the first Gulf War,” Ferree said. “The public changed what they wanted to see the president take care of.”
Ferree said if the public had focused on the economy before the 1991 war instead of after it, the elder Bush might not have experienced such a swift drop in approval in the months leading up to the 1992 election.
John Mueller, who considered the effects of World War II and other international conflicts on public opinion, first popularized the rally effect concept in the 1950s and 1960s.
Since then, theorists have tried to apply various sociological and psychological concepts to explain the phenomenon.
“In times of national crisis there tends to be an up-tick in approval ratings,” Ferree said. “They want to see the president looking like he is being decisive, to reassure themselves. People want to believe he is in control.”
While recent poll data appears to show U.S. public opinion firmly in favor of the war, Iraq has begun to receive sympathy from its neighbors in the Middle East.
Daniel Brumberg, a professor in the department of government at Georgetown University, predicted increased anti-American sentiment in the Arab world in a testimony he gave to the U.S. Congress’s Joint Committee on Arab Public Opinion.
Brumberg said the current President Bush is experiencing a longer-lasting rally effect than his father because the Sept. 11 attacks had a deeper effect on Americans’ consciences.
Operation Desert Storm was designed to liberate the Kuwaiti people from Iraqi oppression, while the current war is a preventative move to prevent further attacks against the U.S. by replacing Saddam Hussein’s dictatorship.
“When people feel less threatened, the rally effect tends to last a shorter amount of time,” Brumberg said. “Many Americans are convinced by Bush’s argument that it is a necessary preemptive measure.”
