Every year, exceptional college football players slip into day three of the NFL Draft, with some never proving worthy of an early-round pick. Others make the general managers who passed on them regret their decisions. New York Jets fourth-round pick and Wisconsin alumni Braelon Allen is shaping up to be the latter.
Allen, 20, is the youngest player in the National Football League and became the youngest player in NFL history to score multiple touchdowns in a game during the Jets’ 24-17 win over the Tennessee Titans in Week two. Through three weeks, the Fond du Lac, Wis. native ranks second among rookie running backs in yards per carry at 5.1 and rush yards at 96 while leading all rookie tailbacks in receiving yards at 45. Allen was the 11th running back selected in the 2024 NFL Draft.
The Week 2 feat wasn’t the first time Allen’s drawn national attention for playing beyond his age. Allen reclassified coming out of high school, playing his freshman year at the University of Wisconsin as a 17-year-old. In that season, Allen rushed for third most yards in the Big 10 and averaged 6.8 yards per carry.
It’s rare to see players as young as Allen in the NFL, as the league operates under a rule that states players must be at least three years removed from high school to be eligible for the NFL Draft. Allen’s reclassification made it possible for him to be drafted and play most of his rookie season prior to his 21st birthday in January.
While Allen looks to already be an NFL-caliber running back, it’s tough to imagine a better landing spot for him than the Jets. In New York, Allen is the thunder to starter Breece Hall’s lightning. The speedy Hall wears down opposing defenses for the hard-running Allen to exploit. Allen’s complementary running style allows for the Jets to deploy him in opportune spots and constantly keep him on fresh legs.
In addition, the Jets overhauled their offensive line. This offseason they turned a group that ranked last in the NFL according to analytics site NFL Lines, into a unit Pro Football Focus ranks sixth through three weeks. The changes included selecting Olu Fashanu of Penn State with the 11th overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft, signing All-Pro tackle Tyron Smith and guard John Simpson and trading for veteran tackle Morgan Moses. New York’s push to improve in the trenches wasn’t just to set up the run game, but to keep their four-time MVP quarterback Aaron Rodgers safe.
Rodgers-led offenses have proven to be a gold mine for running backs, and in recent years, shown to be capable of supporting multiple running backs. In each of Rodgers’ final two seasons in Green Bay, the team had two running backs rush for more than 700 yards. Going further in the past than Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, Rodgers had RB tandems of Jones and Jamaal Williams, and Eddie Lacy with James Starks. Comparing Hall and Allen to the Packers’ tailbacks of the past isn’t apples to apples, but the historical precedent of RB success in Green Bay bodes well for Allen in 2024 and beyond.
Being selected by the right team is imperative to a player succeeding in the early years of their careers. In the case of running backs, that statement may be even more accurate. As of August 2022, the average NFL career length was 3.3 years. For running backs, that number dwindles to 2.57 – the shortest average career span of any position. It begs the question, will Allen’s premature entrance to the NFL result in an early exit?
There isn’t a clear answer but studies have shown that running back production falls off as their career carry total increases. In 2021, Pro Football Focus examined running back’s rush yards over expected and found a clear decrease after 1,500 career carries. The good news for Allen is that his complementary role to Hall shouldn’t result in an excess of carries. Even if he were to be a workhorse back, it’s also not a guarantee that Allen will abide by PFF’s findings.
There’s been two recent, notable outliers to the standard career progression for running backs: Todd Gurley and Derrick Henry. The two ball carriers fall on opposite ends of the spectrum of RB longevity. Gurley sustained a torn ACL in college, and although he made a full recovery and topped 1,000 yards in three of his first four NFL seasons, Gurley was pushed out of the league before he hit the 1,500-carry mark due to arthritis in his knee. Henry’s career took a drastically different route.
In high school alone, Henry toted the rock 1,397 times. In college, he rushed 603 more times. And now, through 122 career NFL games, Henry has 2,086 carries. In 2024, he’s still going strong, averaging five yards per carry across three games. Many attribute Henry’s longevity and success to his massive frame. Allen, measuring 6-foot-1 and 235 lbs at the NFL Combine, has a body type that falls between that of Gurley and Henry. However, the rookie was compared to Henry during the pre-draft process, which while mostly meaningless, could be an indication of a lengthy and fruitful career for Allen.
Nobody knows what the future holds for Braelon Allen, but in just three weeks of professional action, he’s become a household name and established himself as a key contributor to a team with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations.
