The most recent NFL offseason had many fans holding their breath in fear of losing the upcoming season to a lockout.
After a long and grueling offseason, the owners and players finally came to terms on a new labor agreement. But after just four weeks into one of the most highly anticipated seasons in recent memory, many of the leagues top teams may be wishing the lockout had never been lifted.
There’s been much turmoil at the top of the standings during this NFL season. Teams like the Colts (0-4), who lost Peyton Manning for the majority of the season, have a valid excuse for their rough start. Others like the Steelers, Jets, Eagles and Falcons can only blame themselves for their early season woes.
If the playoffs started today, only two of last year’s AFC playoff teams would make the postseason. The NFC would see even more drastic changes, with only the defending champs from Green Bay making the postseason. Last year’s postseason teams weren’t necessarily “one-year wonders,” and most of them are actually perennial contenders who make the playoffs nearly every year (New England, Indianapolis, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, New York Jets, Green Bay, Philadelphia, New Orleans and Chicago). Through week four of this season, last year’s playoff teams have a combined record of 24-24. A record of .500 is very subpar considering they’re most of the top NFL teams.
Four games will not decide the outcome of a season, but that number does make up a quarter of the regular season games. By this point in the season, the division frontrunners typically begin to become more apparent. If the conference leaders continue their early season success, be prepared to see an almost entirely new cast of teams playing into January.
Here’s an idea of how the playoffs would look if the season ended today: Buffalo and Houston would both have first round byes in the playoffs.
Wait…did I just say Buffalo and Houston would not only be in the playoffs, but also have first round byes? Unbelievable.
The remaining AFC teams would include New England, Baltimore, Tennessee and San Diego. It’s tough to imagine two teams from the AFC South making the postseason and neither of them is the Indianapolis Colts.
In the NFC, Green Bay and Washington would hold first round byes. Maybe Rex Grossman wasn’t crazy when he said the Redskins would win the NFC East.
On second thought, lets not get too carried away quite yet. The rest of the NFC squads would include New York, San Francisco, Detroit and Tampa Bay. Detroit hasn’t even thought about the playoffs since its last appearance in 1999. San Francisco hasn’t been relevant since the Jeff Garcia and Terrell Owens days, and Tampa Bay is supposed to be an upcoming team that’s overshadowed by the Saints and Falcons in a tough division.
It’s much too early to use the popular “if the playoffs began today” phrase, though it does show the balance of power in the NFL is beginning to shift. Younger teams like Detroit, Buffalo, Tampa Bay and Houston are beginning to turn the corner. They’re giving themselves a legitimate chance to make a run at the playoffs.
Seeing many top teams underachieve while underdogs are atop the standings is what makes this NFL season so odd. With the exception of a few teams like Green Bay and Baltimore, it seems as if the NFL has seen a 180-degree turn from commonly held preseason expectations. It’s refreshing to see new teams emerge, but it’s surprising to see so much change at one time.
It must be restated that we’re only approaching the fifth week of the NFL season. There is much football to be played, and the playoff teams will probably look much different in January than they’d look today. Teams like the Steelers, Jets, and Eagles are too talented and have too much pride not to stay competitive the rest of the season.
If they’re still struggling at the midway point in the season, then they have real reason to panic. It’s simply too early in the season to make any conclusions, but the surprising results after the first month of the season cannot go unnoticed.
