Independent Student Newspaper Since 1969

The Badger Herald

Independent Student Newspaper Since 1969

The Badger Herald

Independent Student Newspaper Since 1969

The Badger Herald

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Fantasy baseball: Week 3

I am by no means a perfect person. I say dumb things sometimes, accidentally leave the lights on, and leave the TV volume way too high. When it comes to fantasy baseball, I will never claim to be clairvoyant. I give my best guesses, and I hope most of them will pay off.

But even though I’m not psychic, I can give some advice as the regular season gets into full swing. I’ve played a lot of fantasy baseball over the years, and I’ve made my fair share of mistakes. Hopefully you can learn from my previous bad judgment, and take your fantasy team all the way to a championship.

1. Don’t Overreact

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This is probably the most important thing you can do in fantasy baseball. Keep in mind that it’s a marathon, not a sprint, and you’ll be fine. For example, I have Albert Pujols on two of my teams this year. He went 0 for 5 yesterday, and ground into three double plays. Should I (or you, for that matter) be worried? Hell no. One game does not make a season, and barring injury, Pujols will hit something along the lines of .320, with 40 home runs and 120 RBI. You also need to keep in mind that many players start slowly, such as Justin Verlander. Over the last three years, Verlander has a 6.30 ERA in the month of April, to go along with a 3-8 record. But you’d be crazy to drop him or trade him after a bad April. Verlander usually figures it out after a month, as his ERA for May sits at a sweet 2.67.

2. Don’t make a trade until June

This rule comes with a simple caveat–the only reasons to make a trade before June is if one of your players suffers a season-ending injury, or if another league member blows you away with a desperation deal. Otherwise, I wouldn’t even think about it. Why? You really can’t get a good sense of what your team is missing until June anyway. Remember that you drafted your players for a reason, and you need to give them a chance to prove themselves.

Here’s an example from last year–I drafted Raul Ibanez as my third or fourth outfielder, and he went on to hit an abysmal .221 in April. I dealt him just to get rid of him for a corner infielder that was over-performing. Want to guess what happened? Ibanez went on to hit .283 the rest of the year in a potent Phillies lineup. Learn from this. If you’re making a trade just to make one, you’re going to get burned. 

3. Know when it’s time to say goodbye

This one was the hardest for me to learn. Going into last year, Aaron Hill was one of the highest ranked second basemen after he hit .286 with 36 homers, 108 RBI and 103 runs in 2009. I was convinced Hill could have similar stats in 2010, so I drafted him. He promptly went about his business of hitting .205 over the year, although he did finish with with 26 homers. Normally, a fantasy owner would have dropped Hill and his inability to make it well above the Mendoza line after it became clear Hill’s season was lost. But not me: I kept him for the whole year. I was convinced that Hill’s season was based on bad luck (it was), and that his power numbers meant the average would creep up to .250 by the end of the year (it didn’t). I simply didn’t know when to let go.

Hill was a high pick for me, and I wasn’t willing to cut him even when I picked up the red hot Kelly Johnson off the waiver wire. This applies to any “sleeper pick” you’ve made this year, or even a high draft pick. You may be high on Freddie Freeman or Gio Gonzalez this year, but if it becomes clear it’s not their year, you need to let go. Or trade him to some sucker (like me, apparently) who believes there’s still some potential there– it’s your call.

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