Welcome to the first-ever Badger Herald Oscar pool. When I first heard that the staff was going to be making our picks in print, I suggested a "Glengarry, Glen Ross" scenario where first place would get a Cadillac, second place would get a set of steak knives and third place would get fired. For whatever reason, I think my bosses ended up deciding a Starbucks gift certificate was more appropriate. Whatever.

For me, there is very little upside to actually making my picks in print. If I win, then it just means I beat a group of Herald staffers at something that, by all rights, I know more about than anybody else on staff. If I lose, it means I'm horrible at my job and I will be put through financial hardship, mainly because I have made a large number of irresponsible side-bets with my competitors.

On to the picks:

Best Picture:

Who Will Win: "Babel"

This is a legitimate three-horse race between "Babel," "Little Miss Sunshine" and "The Departed." The whispers this week seem to be that "Little Miss Sunshine" is ready to pull away, but I'm not convinced, especially when you look at the fact that co-directors Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris didn't score a nomination. Supporters have pointed out that the older Academy voters (always an important contingency to lock up) responded well to the movie, but such thinking underestimates how well "The Queen" played with the AARP set. In the end, I'm just not convinced it has the heft of a Best Picture winner: Sure, everybody liked it, but at any point during "Little Miss Sunshine" did you ever think, "Wow, I'm watching the best movie of the year?" I thought not.

"The Departed" was the early frontrunner, but at this point I just feel like it's run out of steam. After the ecstatic early reaction, the movie really got put through the wringer, mainly over Nicholson's performance and those jarring final ninety seconds in Matt Damon's apartment (I firmly believe that had Scorsese not ended his movie on the shot of that fucking rat silhouetted against the Massachusetts statehouse, "The Departed" would be a clear-cut favorite). I just don't sense any real excitement for the movie among people with whom I've talked.

All of this brings us to our final contender: "Babel." Despite lousy initial reviews and no wins at any of the Guild awards (usually pretty fair indicators of Oscar success), I think "Babel" will ultimately pull off a win because it's the safest choice on the board. It's big, political (but not too political), and has a lot of name actors doing grunt work. Also, for what it's worth, the producers and screenwriters I've talked to are in love with this movie, presumably because they were moved by Alejandro González Iñárritu's message that if you ever go to another country, the local police will shoot you.

Who Should Win: "The Departed"

You know how you get in a relationship and everything is going great for the first few months, but then you start to get panicky because things seem to be so easy, so you start looking for faults because you're worried about things moving too fast? That's what has happened to "The Departed," and "Babel" is that sketchy girl with the lower-back tattoo who is just waiting to screw things up for you.

Who Really Should Win: "The Good Shepherd"

Best Actor:

Who Will Win: Forest Whitaker, "The Last King of Scotland"

This is not going to be as close as people think. Forest Whitaker is going to win, and it will be easier than some are predicting. For the last few weeks, pundits desperate to drum up some interest have been suggesting that Whitaker — a legitimate frontrunner since early September — might be upset by former heartthrob and current tiny-old-man Peter O'Toole. Here's the thing these people are forgetting: Everybody in Hollywood hates Peter O'Toole. He is not a very nice man. On the flip side: Everybody in Hollywood loves Forest Whitaker. He is a very nice man. Also, his performance is better.

Who Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio "Blood Diamond"

Not because I actually thought his performance in "Blood Diamond" was all that good, but rather because I am still shocked Warner Bros. didn't have the stones to push him harder for his work in "The Departed." Consider this a protest vote.

Who Really Should Win: Matt Damon, "The Good Shepherd"

Best Actress:

Who Will Win: Helen Mirren, "The Queen"

Lately, I've been trying to think if there was anything Helen Mirren could do to keep her from winning for "The Queen." I've concluded that unless we find out she is actually a man, thus disqualifying her from the Best Actress category, she is set. Since we're on the subject of "The Queen," I want to test out an idea on you guys: Wouldn't the performance have been much more interesting if we had Gary Oldman playing Queen Elizabeth? I mean, is there a British actress over 50 who can't play Queen Elizabeth? For me, that whole movie was like watching somebody shoot fish in a barrel. I could think of ten other actresses who could have nailed that role. Why not give Oldman a crack at it? He would have been at least as good as Mirren, and it would have made the movie a lot more interesting, especially if he just started talking like his character from "True Romance" at random intervals throughout the picture.

Who Should Win: Kate Winslet, "Little Children"

Like Jack Lemmon, Kate Winslet has an effortless way about her on screen that is easy to overlook. For too long, I have been guilty of taking her for granted. But this year, she really hit me — she's the only one of these nominees who actually had to do serious acting. Mirren was doing an impersonation, Streep was playing a cartoon character and Judi Dench and Penelope Cruz were both playing characters they'd played before. Winslet always works from a blank slate and for that, we should all be grateful.

Who Really Should Win: Kate Winslet

Best Supporting Actor:

Who Will Win: Eddie Murphy, "Dreamgirls"

This is going to be a lot closer than people think. In fact, I was almost tempted to slip Jackie Earle Haley or Alan Arkin into this spot, but ultimately, I think the votes of producers and directors are going to be enough to help him hold on. But if I get something wrong — other than Best Picture — it is going to come in this category. Also, I've been hearing that actors are really gravitating toward Wahlberg, but he's likely to split votes with Haley.

Who Should Win: Mark Wahlberg, "The Departed"

I've devoted more energy to trying to explain the brilliance of Wahlberg's work in "The Departed" than of any other single performance this year. In October, I not-so-jokingly threatened to fight critics who said they "didn't get" his performance, a common complaint when the picture was first released. Last month, I encouraged him to come to the Oscar ceremony in character. All kidding aside, though, when it comes to supporting performances, Wahlberg's work reminded me of John Cazale in "The Deer Hunter." It's not that they played similar characters, but rather because they both nailed down a certain character type unique to a particular region with such clarity, you forgot they were acting.

Who Really Should Win: Mark Wahlberg

Best Supporting Actress:

Who Will Win: Jennifer Hudson, "Dreamgirls"

I think I knew this woman was going to be in pretty good shape when people in the theater began bursting out into applause after her songs. Also, she has a weak, weak field of competitors to go up against. I will say this, though: Don't underestimate the "Babel" wave. Adriana Barraza is lurking.

Who Should Win: Abigail Breslin, "Little Miss Sunshine"

Whatever. I'm not crazy about any of the nominees in this category. At least Breslin made me laugh a few times.

Who Really Should Win: Mia Kirschner, "The Black Dahlia"

Since I have nothing to say about any of the other nominees in this category, let me talk for a moment about Kirshner's performance. First off, I think "The Black Dahlia" is a horrible, reprehensible movie that pretty much validated every criticism about Brian De Palma. What made it all the more painful was that Kirshner's performance as murder victim Elizabeth Short was as heartbreaking and emotive as anything I've seen in years. To be humiliated by De Palma and emerge from his glorified snuff film — dignity intact — is the acting achievement of the year.

Best Director:

Who Will Win: Martin Scorsese, "The Departed"

You already know this.

Who Should (Really) Win: Scorsese

I will say that it might be nice to have Alejandro Iñárritu swoop in and take this award, if only because it might make Lou Dobbs' head explode.