Liberal Dane County Circuit Judge Susan Crawford announced her candidacy for the Wisconsin Supreme Court June 10. Crawford will face conservative Waukesha County Circuit Judge Brad Schimel April 1, and the winner will serve a 10-year term, according to Wisconsin Watch. Crawford’s announcement comes after liberal Justice Ann Bradley’s retirement announcement in April.

Crawford has previously worked for the pro-abortion rights group Planned Parenthood, whereas Schimel has advocated against abortion rights, according to Wisconsin Watch.

Bradley’s retirement leaves an empty seat that will determine the court’s balance — which is currently evenly split between three liberal justices and three conservatives, University of Wisconsin professor of political science Alex Tahk said.

“This is a decisive seat, so it’s likely to play a big role in determining outcomes on cases related to all sorts of issues — including abortion,” Tahk said.

In October 2021, the U.S. Supreme Court decision, Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, overturned Roe v. Wade, enforcing a previously invalidated 1849 law, Tahk said.

The Dane County Circuit Court later determined that the law, 1849 Assembly Bill 116, does not outright ban abortion, so some Wisconsin abortion providers have already resumed their services, UW professor of political science Barry Burden said. But, there is still a pending lawsuit in the Wisconsin Supreme Court that asks to fully overturn the law, Burden said.

“[The Wisconsin Supreme Court] will ultimately decide whether a strict version of the 1849 law’s in-place or whether the state is reverting to the policies that were in place before Dobbs — or somewhere in between,” Burden said.

There is some evidence to suggest that supreme courts take public opinion into account when making decisions — whether through noticing prevailing public sentiments or studying survey results, Burden said.

For instance, a 2022 poll from Marquette University Law School found that 58% of Wisconsinites believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases and 35% believe it should be illegal in all or most cases.

But, elected justices are unlikely to completely alter their court behavior based on public opinion, Tahk said. Instead, the most effective way to influence state policy is by voting for justices with a specific ideology, he said.

For abortion-related issues, this Supreme Court election is likely more important than any legislative elections, but its outcome will also have a variety of impacts on the legal landscape of Wisconsin, Tahk said.

“Regardless of which issues you care about … if you care about any part of what Wisconsin law and policy looks like and what happens in our judicial system, then I think you should care about who wins this election,” Tahk said.