Perfection is a feat we rarely witness. No team plays a perfect game. There is always something that could have been done just a little bit better or a little bit quicker. Perfect seasons are extraordinary but extremely uncommon. It may always be the goal, but it is rarely a realistic dream.
The Green Bay Packers found themselves within one of those fantastical dreams last season sitting at 13-0. But the rarity of such an event finally took over, and the Packers’ dreams turned into nightmares following a first round exit in the playoffs.
As the men in green and gold prepare for another season, thoughts of going undefeated loom in the distance, but those thoughts are altogether unrealistic. And while the Packers may be the Super Bowl favorite, they are getting too much love entering the 2012 campaign.
Likely the most foolhardy claim came from the self-proclaimed “Worldwide Leader of Sports,” ESPN. In the NFL preview issue of ESPN the Magazine, analysts predicted a perfect 16-0 regular season for Green Bay. Only one team in the history of professional football has completed a 16-game season without a loss.
As Tom Brady broke records with Randy Moss catching touchdowns, the 2007 New England Patriots were a glitch in the NFL system. In their quest to become completely perfect, they stumbled in the Super Bowl against the Giants, a team they had already beaten.
They quickly found out why the 1972 Miami Dolphins were the only team to complete a championship season without a loss. It is just too difficult in today’s NFL.
Over the past half-decade, many of the best teams throughout the regular season have not gone on to win the championship. Four of the last five Super Bowl champions were wild card teams from their respective leagues – meaning they needed to win three road games just to advance to the Super Bowl.
The Packers were one of those teams and played great throughout their championship run. But even those Packers tiptoed their way into the playoffs. They needed back-to-back victories to finish the regular season just to claim a playoff bid.
While the next season of 15 victories placed some distance from that wild card squad, the 2011 Packers were nonetheless sent home without any hardware. Finishing the season at 15-1 is certainly special, but 15-1 without a championship ring barely means anything.
And that’s why, without a championship to defend, the Packers should be contenders but not the forgone favorites. Recall that last year, this team gave up the second-most yards ever in a season. I repeat, ever. Although the Packers bolstered their defense through the NFL draft and gained experience last season, it’s hard to imagine the defense approaching the greatness it displayed throughout 2010.
It’s also hard to imagine the Packers offense being as stellar as it was a season ago. Sure, defending MVP Aaron Rodgers is back under center, but who is to say his supporting cast will be any better? Will an aging Jeff Saturday be able to do the things Scott Wells did at center? Is Jermichael Finley finally going to reach his potential as a tight end? And will the running game show up before the temperatures cool down?
All these questions remain, but the preseason gave fans little reassurance that there are any reliable answers.
Many times last season, the Packers were able to beat opponents simply by outscoring them. Green Bay topped 40 points on six occasions, leading the league in scoring (35 ppg) and falling short only to the previously mentioned ’07 Patriots team for most points scored in a season.
At times, the Pack needed every point they could muster, winning five games by a single touchdown or less. A predetermined favorite to take home the Lombardi Trophy should not have to squeeze out a victory against the lowly Vikings and Christian Ponder.
In the end, a win is a win, but if Aaron Rodgers and company are not as brilliant as last season, a few more losses will definitely arise. With an even tougher slate in 2012, it’s almost a sure thing.
You would be hard-pressed to find a sure-thing victory on the Packers schedule before Week 7, when they head to St. Louis. Add in the fact that Chicago and Detroit are bound to improve off their successful seasons in 2011, and it becomes clear the Packers will certainly be tested this year.
Yet the media is dead set on the Packers winning it all. Of ESPN.com’s 16 “analysts,” nine chose the Packers to again hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy, and four more picked them to win the NFC. Sports Illustrated also unveiled nine sets of picks, with the Packers leading the league with three selections.
Vegas has chimed in too, making the “homer” bets that won Wisconsinites money in 2010 much less profitable if they happen to run true. The Packers currently own 11:2 odds on winning the Super Bowl, trailing only the Patriots (5:1) by the slimmest of betting margins.
Considering the stars of their offense and the emerging talent on defense, Green Bay may very well own the best roster in the league, so the media and bookies may be right.
But for how pitiful the Packers looked in their loss to Kansas City during the regular season, or how painful it was to watch them lose it all against the Giants in the playoffs, the future for the green and gold is very indefinite. A division championship and playoff berth sound right to me, but let’s make them work for it first.
Sean is a junior majoring in journalism and communication arts. Do you agree the preseason predictions are a bit too lofty for this Packers squad? Let him know at [email protected] or on Twitter @sean_zak.
