Former Republican Gov. Tommy Thompson may no longer be the favorite to win Sen. Herb Kohl’s open U.S. Senate candidate, according to a poll that has Democratic candidate Tammy Baldwin ahead of Thompson.

According to a poll paid for by Democracy for America and conducted by Public Policy Polling, Baldwin is now winning 48 to 45 percent, with 6 percent reporting they are still undecided.

The PPP poll confirms an internal poll conducted by the Baldwin campaign, which put Baldwin in the lead with 50 percent and left Thompson trailing with 45 percent. The internal poll surveyed 800 likely voters in Wisconsin between Sept. 9 and 12 and was conducted for the Democratic Party by the Feldman Group, a political research institution.

The PPP poll was conducted between Sept. 12 and 13 and surveyed 959 likely voters. This is the first PPP report in which Baldwin beat Thompson.

The most recent PPP report prior to this, conducted Aug. 22, had Thompson beating Baldwin 49-44 percent.

Both Thompson and Baldwin were deemed “unfavorable” by the majority on the PPP survey when asked, “Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Tommy Thompson / Tammy Baldwin”?

When asked if Baldwin’s lead in this poll was legitimate, Republican Party of Wisconsin spokesperson Nathan Conrad said he could not comment about the poll directly.

“The only poll that matters is the one that will occur on Nov. 6,” Conrad said.

He added that he looks forward to the debate prior to the election.

John Kraus, Baldwin’s campaign spokesperson, said the campaign is optimistic about November and he believes they are moving in the right direction.  

“There have been a lot of ups and downs, and I’m sure there will be more,” Kraus said in an email to The Badger Herald. “We are going to continue to focus on the clear choice voters have in this election. Tammy is committed to working across party lines to meet the challenges we face and move our economic recovery forward.”

In terms of the poll’s potential effects on the race, UW political science professor Ken Mayer said a conclusion cannot be drawn from a single poll.

“This wasn’t really an ‘Internet poll’ of the sort that drives pollsters to distraction,” Mayer said in an email to The Badger Herald. “It was a real poll that was conducted using the Internet, a method that is used more and more. It’s possible that this poll has indeed found that the dynamics of the race have changed.”

Mayer added it may be possible the poll is an outlier, and he suggested voters wait for future polls before making a definitive decision.

Mayer said the internal poll conducted by the Democratic Party may not be able to be legitimized, but the second poll conducted by the PPP and paid for by the Democratic Party confirms the internal poll’s findings, providing the possibility Thompson may no longer be in the lead of the US Senate race.