A University of Wisconsin scientist is challenging recent rumors of a national autism epidemic, pointing to a new study on special-education trends.
The study was conducted by Paul Shattuck, a researcher at the UW Waisman Center, in response to a set of statistics released by the U.S. Department of Education that startled citizens across the nation.
The statistics — which span from 1992 to 2002 — reveal a more than 15,100 percent increase in autistic children in Wisconsin, according to Shattuck, who called such a conclusion "ridiculous."
Shattuck instead attributed the tremendous increase in autism to a change in the classification system of special-education children.
"My hope is that this research helps people put these numbers in perspective and see them for what they are — and are not," Shattuck said in an e-mail. "Most people don't realize that autism was not added as a separate reporting category until the 1990s."
Department of Education spokesman Jim Bradshaw concurred, adding that Congress did not formerly require the department to collect statistics specific to autism but rather to group the classification with other disorders like mental retardation and learning disability.
Because of the addition of an autism category, the number of diagnoses relating to some other behavioral disorders have decreased while cases of autism have increased, Shattuck said, calling the shift a process of "diagnostic substitution."
Though he did not use the same scientific terminology, Bradshaw agreed this process has contributed to the dramatic increase.
"It wasn't until about 1994 or so that we had most every state on board, as far as reporting autism statistics," Bradshaw said in an e-mail. "Better identification is obviously an important factor in the upward trend."
However, Shattuck also said the increase cannot entirely be attributed to diagnostic substitution, adding this exact amount is difficult to determine due to other newly introduced categories besides autism in the 1990s.
"I don't think we'll ever be able to say for sure whether autism did or did not truly increase during the 1990s given the available data," he said.
Despite the enduring mystery, many people of the medical community point to Shattuck's research as a positive step toward promoting public awareness of autism.
But according to UW associate professor of pediatrics Christina Iyama-Kurtycz, the actual success of the research will depend on the public's reaction.
"If this is a spur to look into … more research, that's good," she said. "But if it makes us hysterical and paranoid about immunizing our kids … that's not a good thing."
Iyama-Kurtycz added she is pleased with Shattuck's research, as it will help dissolve the notion there is a national autism epidemic.
Shattuck agreed his purpose is not to fuel the media-driven hysteria surrounding autism but rather to put the data into perspective and encourage positive change.
"I hope my work will bolster efforts to justify improving our nation's investment in public-health infrastructure, which is quite inadequate when compared to other wealthy nations," he said.
