With a week to go before the NBA season tips off, most teams are focusing on finalizing their starting lineups and tweaking bench rotations. There have been a few surprises–Phoenix is 1-5, Memphis is 6-0–but most fans are content to pass off any surprises with the perennial “it’s just preseason” mantra. Of course, a closer look at some historical numbers would seem to suggest that the preseason does have some predictive value. Still, with rookies playing extended minutes in place of veterans, starters stuck in rehab and plenty of other experimentation going on, it is admittedly difficult to gauge team success in the preseason.
In the case of the Milwaukee Bucks, that might not be a bad thing. The Bucks currently sit at 3-3 with games against the LeBron-less Cavaliers and a rematch with the Minnesota Timberwolves remaining. They haven’t looked dominant in any game, and were thoroughly outplayed by the Grizzlies last Saturday. While the record is largely irrelevant, the importance of this preseason should not be underplayed.
Milwaukee enters this year with a drastically different team than the one that took the Hawks to seven games last spring. The Bucks return 62.9% of their minutes played from last year in only seven players, including Michael Redd, who isn’t likely to see the court this season. Except for the arrival of Drew Gooden, the starting lineup remains largely intact. But with players like Chris Douglas-Roberts and Corey Maggette on the bench, the preseason offers a critical chance to assess how each player will fit into Milwaukee’s game plan.
Unfortunately, it’s difficult to assess a player’s performance when they are stuck rehabbing injuries, which has been Milwaukee’s problem so far. Andrew Bogut made his preseason debut on Sunday but played only 15 minutes. Corey Maggette and John Salmons have yet to play. As a result, Scott Skiles and the Bucks’ coaching staff have had a difficult time finding the right amount of playing time for each member of this surprisingly deep team. At the very least, this has given players like Larry Sanders and Jon Brockman plenty of opportunity to showcase their abilities and play their way into the rotation.
For what it’s worth, a few questions have been answered. Scott Skiles has indicated that Maggette will be coming off the bench, a role similar to the one he served in Golden State. Keyon Dooling has already carved out his share of playing time and could even be used occasionally at the shooting guard position alongside star Brandon Jennings.
Overall, the offense has been fairly underwhelming. Milwaukee is shooting 41.5% in the preseason and has been outrebounded in every game. This can be at least partially explained by Bogut playing only 15 total minutes, but Milwaukee was a top-five rebounding team in the league last year and just can’t pull down boards this preseason.
Offsetting this has been an even more surprising occurrence: the Bucks have been living at the free throw line so far. Through six games, Milwaukee has attempted 201 free throws–12 percent of what they shot through all of last season! They have also done it without Corey Maggette, the player brought in specifically to help them reach the charity stripe more often this season.
As expected, however, the Bucks’ defense has been able to keep them in games. While Jennings’ shooting remains questionable, he does have 10 steals through six games. Larry Sanders has also appeared a little out of control on the offensive end but has managed to collect nine blocks. In their three wins, the Bucks have held their opponents under 90 points, while in two of their losses they have given up over 110.
What to expect the rest of the preseason
Expect Andrew Bogut to play slightly increased minutes, but probably not more than 25 a game. Don’t expect to see Maggette or John Salmons, as Salmons may not even be ready for the start of the regular season. Expect Ersan Ilyasova to continue drawing fouls against a relatively aggressive and inexperienced Cleveland frontcourt, but don’t expect him to improve his shooting. Expect one more player to be sent packing, since the Bucks need to cut one more player, and expect an exciting season once it finally gets underway.
