In a nationwide survey conducted Feb. 11-16 by the Pew Research Center, 45 percent of Americans expressed a positive impression of the field of Democratic candidates, up from 31 percent in January.
“Any time there is a one-sided flow in information, as is the case when there is a competitive primary with the incumbent president sitting in the background, the party in the news is going to get a boost,” University of Wisconsin political science professor Charles H. Franklin said. “If I’m a republican, I’m not too worried, but [the findings] do show that it will be a close race.”
The survey found the two remaining major candidates in the Democratic field, Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., and Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C., receive a favorable rating by approximately two-thirds of the public, among those polled.
Interest in the Democratic primaries as a whole has also increased, with 29 percent of Americans claiming to pay close attention to the race, up from 16 percent in January.
The surge in the popularity of the Democratic field coincides with a tumble in the public image of President Bush. When asked to describe Bush in one word, equal numbers of respondents chose a negative answer to a positive response, with the most frequent negative reply being “liar.”
“Bush has been shooting himself in the foot,” Franklin said. “The situation in Iraq is increasingly disturbing for the Bush administration, the economy is turning up in some ways but not in others, and his forecast of job growth appears to have been a large over-prediction.”
As criticisms about Bush’s performance have arisen, the president’s job approval rating has declined, currently standing at 48 percent, the lowest point of his presidency.
“Although lower than before, Bush’s ratings still aren’t that bad,” Franklin said, noting presidents that win reelections are usually on an upward trend. “The real problem is the downward trend they exhibit. Bush’s ratings peaked after Sept. 11, 2001 and have gone steadily downhill since, spiking only when the war in Iraq started and with the capture of Saddam Hussein.”
Franklin used Ronald Reagan in 1984 as an example of the importance of upward trending. Although Reagan’s ratings throughout his first term hovered in the low 40 percent range, they climbed as Reagan faced reelection, leading to a landslide victory.
Despite mostly positive findings, a majority of Americans, 56 percent, still believe the war in Iraq improved the long-term security of the United States and a small majority, 51 percent, maintain Bush will win the general election in November.
State chairman of the College Republicans, Angela Frozena, admits to paying attention to similar surveys but says the findings shouldn’t be interpreted as a definite forecast of how the election will play out.
“Just like the bounce a candidate receives after gaining his party’s nomination, it’s natural for candidates involved in a primary to benefit,” Frozena said. “Poll numbers now aren’t necessarily indicative of what will happen in the general election.”
