For Democrats, the 2002 midterm elections were a lesson in political campaigning. The Republicans, led by President Bush, took over control of the Senate and created the first unified Republican government in over 50 years.
The campaign continued to defy historical trends; Bush is the first Republican president since 1902 in his first term to see his party gain both House and Senate seats in a midterm election.
Political scientists attribute much of the success to President Bush and said the prospect of unified government plays well into his reelection chances for 2004.
The effort put forth by the White House is unprecedented when compared to past midterm campaigns. Bush raised more than $200 million with $140 million coming this year alone. He also campaigned in 40 states and visited 30 of them twice. Bush did not campaign alone, but received help from the vice president and members of his cabinet.
Vice President Cheney raised over $40 million and was constantly traveling in the final months making nearly 30 trips. Also, 12 of the 14 members of the Bush Cabinet visited a combined 33 states.
Donald Kettle, a professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin, said despite the Republican’s slim majority margin, the White House set up the president to advance much of his policy.
“They’ve got themselves in an extraordinary position to advance some of their policy ideas,” Kettl said. “The Democrats will have to be in a period of reorganizing, especially for the 2004 presidential election, and that campaign will start in the next few minutes.”
With Republicans now in control of Congress, Bush should have an easier time pushing forward his domestic agenda of tax cuts, a national energy plan and the creation of a homeland security department. It will be these issues and others that will mark the second half of Bush’s presidency, said Randall Lake, a professor of political science at the University of Southern California.
“I think he will pursue the anti-environmentalist agenda; the issue of drilling in the arctic will be back,” Lake said. “His recent comments about what he described as a ‘fair judicial confirmation process’ is code for wanting to make a number of appointments to the federal judiciary. His job across the board will be easier, as will his pursuit in the war against Iraq.”
Although the Republicans hold a majority in the Senate, Kettl said the president might still see opposition when pushing his agenda.
“There are two things that weaken their voters. One is that they still don’t have 60 votes in the Senate, which is needed to shut down a filibuster, and the other is that although they have taken over the Senate, several of the victories were by absolutely razor thin margins,” Kettl said.
Charles Jones, a professor of political science at UW, said Bush would have an advantage in setting the agenda “which had been the source of difficulty for him up to now.”
“He will have a ‘conversational advantage’ now with leaders in both the House and the Senate where they can sit down together and determine what comes up when and that is a tremendous advantage,” Jones said.
Jones said despite the slim majority, Bush might have the nod from some conservative democrats. It is these democrats that will be a vital asset to Bush in the next couple years.
“The Republicans will have to pay attention to [their slim advantage] because 51 to 49 is not a big majority,” Jones said. “On the other hand, you got a whole group of Senators like Zell Miller from Georgia, both Louisiana Senators, and now Mark Prior from Nebraska who is a fiscal conservative even though he is a Democrat who will be freer to negotiate with and join the Republicans on certain issues.”
Bush decided to stay behind the scenes Wednesday.
