If you’re like me, and for the sake of your grades you shouldn’t be, you’ve been spending a lot of your time doing mock drafts at ESPN.com. And while I might not have much of a life, I figure you have better things to do than try to decide if you should take Josh Beckett or Brian Matusz as your last starting pitcher (Hint: When in doubt, take the veteran pitcher on the better team.)
So I’ve decided to share with you my crucial, yes crucial, fantasy baseball draft strategy. It’s called “positional tiers,” and if you want to set yourself up for September glory, it’s a strategy you should take to heart. Love it, cherish it, and tell your friends that it doesn’t work to keep them confused. Remember, psychological warfare is fair game in fantasy baseball.
In short, the positional tiers strategy centers on the idea that at every position, some players will give you about the same level of production. For example, Stephen Drew may give you a better average than Ian Desmond, but Desmond will give you more stolen bases. In the end, it all evens out. But it’s not enough to know which players will produce at the same level; you need to know where players are usually drafted. For example, Drew and Desmond are drafted on average three rounds apart. Unless you desperately need a shortstop, or you have some unreasonable hatred of Desmond, there’s no need to reach for Drew in the 11th round.
Let’s take a look at one of the shallower positions: third base. The top is pretty easy to define: Evan Longoria, David Wright and Ryan Zimmerman. All three of those guys will give you production in at least four categories, and all three will be taken within the first two rounds. After that, things get a little messy.
I have Alex Rodriguez alone in my second tier. Rodriguez will still be a worthwhile pick at third base, but he’s also going to be 35 this year, almost three years past what is usually considered the “prime years” for baseball players. His batting average, stolen base, home runs and run totals have been declining for four years now. If you need a third baseman and A-Rod is available, go ahead and take him, but you need to know going in that A-Rod is now four years removed from his last MVP season.
To be quite honest, my third tier of third basemen scares me more than Justin Bieber’s popularity among teenage girls. After A-Rod, I have Adrian Beltre and Jose Bautista. Both of these guys scare me: Beltre only puts up decent numbers in contract years, and he just signed a five-year deal with Texas. Don’t believe me? Take a look at this: In years prior to Beltre signing a long-term contract, he averaged an AVG/OBP/SLG line of .327/.376/.591, with 94 runs, 38 home runs and 111 RBI. In non-contract years, he hit .266/.317/.442, with 74 runs, 21 homers and 79 RBI. So you’ll have to excuse me for the fact that I’m completely avoiding Beltre this year. If he falls below his average draft spot of No. 36 overall, I might think about it. But otherwise I’ll let another team reap his “benefits.”
Bautista is a whole different story. I’m reasonably sure that Bautista won’t hit 54 home runs in 2011, and if you draft him expecting he will reach even 50 again you’re going to be disappointed. I’m in no way alleging that Bautista’s power isn’t real, but he’s going to be 30 this year and is still in his prime. He may have found his power swing last year, and has a good chance to put up about 30 homers again. But Bautista comes with some risks, mainly batting average. Bautista hit .260 last year, and while that’s nowhere near Mark Reynolds’ atrocious .198, its not a number I’m comfortable with in the fourth round.
After Beltre and Bautista? There’s Michael Young, Aramis Ramirez, Martin Prado and Casey McGehee. These four all come with question marks, and probably won’t come close to matching the production of the top-tier players. Keep in mind that I’ve only mentioned 10 players, so in a 10-team league they will all be drafted.
So when you’re drafting, and you notice that Ryan Zimmerman is still on the board, go ahead and take him, and know that you’re saving yourself some serious third base-related heart trouble. Ranking positions with tiers can and will save your team come draft day. But don’t tell my league-mates that.