With apologies to Christmas, Kwanza, Hanukkah, summertime, July 4th weekend, October (my actual pick for best sports month of the year), Mifflin and Arbor Day (don’t even question the awesomeness of this holiday), the first weekend of March Madness is the best weekend of the year.
Four days of non-stop action, upset alerts, buzzer beaters and coaching meltdowns.
For the first time all year, everyone has a team to root for in every game, making it so even soccer moms and drama fanatics can get into the action.
While it is too late to help you with the agonizing pain of selecting your bracket, I can at least tell you what to expect in the upcoming weeks.
1. Expect upsets this weekend
While No. 16 seeds are 0-100 all-time against one seeds, and No. 15 seeds haven’t fared much better with only four wins. Upsets happen in the opening weekend, and they happen in abundance.
The classic 12 over five upset, the very same one the Badgers capitalized on last year, beating No. 5 seed Florida State in the first round, has occurred every year but two since 1989.
Five-seeds are generally underachieving teams from power conferences (Michigan State) or under-seeded teams from small conferences (Temple and Butler). No. 12 seeds are generally teams that did not win their conference tournaments and barely squeaked in as an at-large team. The 12-seeds feel they have something to prove and usually fare well. These intriguing matchups make for some of the best games in the entire tournament and usually provide us with our first couple of upsets.
This year there are several interesting 5-12 matchups, including Butler versus UTEP and Temple versus Cornell.
Also, look to Vegas for some advice on upsets.
Last year, Arizona was actually favored by one point over five-seed Utah, and this year nearly every college basketball expert is picking 13-seed Siena over fourth-seeded Purdue (Vegas somehow has the shorthanded Boilermakers favored by four points).
Sometimes, the “upsets” aren’t really upsets at all.
2. Well-known teams and powerhouse programs will make the Final Four
We all know and admire the story of how George Mason stunned the college basketball world in 2006 making it to the Final Four, upsetting a three-seed, a six-seed, and the first-seeded Connecticut Huskies along the way before bowing out to the eventual champion Florida Gators.
But these kinds of stories are few and far between.
Cinderellas tend to start losing their magic on the second weekend when they face elite teams with size and defensive intensity.
I am certainly not saying that the Final Four will be all one-seeds, which only happened once in 2008, but do not expect anything less than a five-seed to reach Indianapolis.
But the facts don’t lie, and the facts say at least one No. 1 seed has made the Final Four every year except 1980 and 2006, and I do not expect that to change this year.
Additionally, 10 of the last 15 tournament winners have won it before, and all four of this year’s top seeds have won a championship in the last decade.
3. Someone will make a name for himself
A good chunk of the public is unaware of the vast knowledge and the expanse of scouting reports NBA scouts have regarding the prospects for this June’s draft, but those very same scouts will be at home this weekend watching the games just like you and I.
Carrying your team to victory is invaluable in the eyes of NBA scouts, executives and general managers. They will remember the names they learned over the course of the tournament.
Two years ago, a small scrawny shooting guard from tiny Davidson College made a huge splash in the tournament and cemented his place in the NBA.
Stephen Curry’s amazing run in March of 2008 catapulted him into the No. 7 overall pick in the 2009 NBA Draft.
The success Curry had has carried over into the NBA, where he is averaging 16.4 points, 5.5 assists and 4.2 rebounds per game in his rookie season.
Carmelo Anthony provided a similar spark to the Syracuse Orangemen in 2003, leading the Orange to a championship. His one year in Syracuse is something Orange fans will never forget, and it proved to be a coming-out party for one of the best basketball players on the planet.
Success in the tournament goes a long way in guaranteeing a spot in the NBA and will provide a blueprint for what kind of player a NBA team will expect when they draft a player.
Candidates for this year’s coming-out player: Kentucky forward DeMarcus Cousins (Kentucky has a another phenom freshman, what?), Oklahoma State forward James Anderson, and Baylor center Ekpe Udoh (not just here because of his awesome name).
The next few weeks will provide us more excitement than a 55-degree day in Madison in February.
OK, now maybe I’m getting carried away.
Regardless sit back and enjoy one of the few perfect systems remaining today (suck on that, BCS).