The Elections Research Center released the results of their fourth 2020 election survey Monday morning, their final poll before Election Day.
The survey, which was conducted in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin from Oct. 13-21, shows that Biden has extended his four-point lead to nine points in Wisconsin over President Donald Trump since the third election survey, conducted from Sep. 10-21. The former vice president holds a 10-point lead in Michigan while he leads by eight points in Pennsylvania.
Professor of Political Science and Director of the Elections Research Center Barry Burden said in an email to The Badger Herald that Trump will do better among voters who cast ballots on Election Day, but it may not be enough to compensate for Biden’s early lead.
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“The share of voters supporting Trump has been holding steady in the low 40s for several months, but Biden has actually grown his coalition in recent weeks to put him at or above the 50% mark in all three states,” Burden said.
Respondents were asked about the most important issue facing the country, opinions about Trump, campaign contact and Judge Amy Coney Barrett’s nomination, according to the Elections Research Center website.
According to Professor of Political Science David Canon, the spike in COVID-19 cases has had the biggest impact on voters.
“We have seen a record number of cases in Wisconsin, breaking records almost every day it seems,” Canon said. “That is the biggest thing that has changed in the outside world in terms of something that could affect the presidential election.”
The Wisconsin Department of Health Services reports the seven-day average for daily cases in Wisconsin Monday was 3,879. According to the CDC, Wisconsin has the second-highest number of cases in the last seven days.
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Burden said the gender gap is also working to Biden’s advantage because his lead among women is substantially larger than Trump’s lead among men.
Results show 57% of women surveyed support Biden and only 37% support Trump. The remaining 6% support neither or are not sure.
The ERC will not have another election poll released before the election Nov. 3.
