Did you hear the one about the longtime U.S. Senator who has consistently high favorability and job approval ratings being in the fight of his political life against a millionaire challenger with no prior political experience?

It’s not the craziest story ever told, but it made many political insiders scratch their heads when Oshkosh businessman Ron Johnson entered late into the Senate race against incumbent Sen. Russ Feingold, D-Wis., and swept ahead by a considerable margin in many polls.

“It’s stunning that the same electorate that favors Johnson by nine points still has a positive viewing of Feingold,” said Charles Franklin, political science professor at the University of Wisconsin and founder of Pollster.com.

And Feingold is not alone. Across the nation, many Democrats – incumbent or not – have found themselves in a tight race against an extremely tough GOP candidate, in a phenomenon commonly referred to as an “enthusiasm gap.”

Origins of unrest

Franklin attributed two main causes of lagging Democratic enthusiasm to a lack of drastic turnaround in the nation’s economy and a growing frustration among the party since the election of President Barack Obama.

“There’s no question the first two years of Obama’s presidency have disappointed Democrats,” Franklin said. “It has a really large burden for Democrats to bear, and one can argue it’s a burden of their own creation for not solving the economic problems or passing popular health care reforms.”

And this Democratic unrest comes at a time when Republican enthusiasm has hit a new high. Franklin credited the party’s new-found zeal to a collective move farther right in the aftermath of the Bush Administration.

“[Those leaders] were basically arguing that when Bush was in power, the party gave away its Republican principles, and they wanted to restore them,” Franklin said. “It’s somewhat surprising to see new leaders come in and dominate the message, and it really has mobilized the grassroots to a remarkable extent.”

But the existence of this gap is still questioned, depending on who you ask. John Kraus of the Feingold campaign said their polling has shown their supporters are “very energized,” and the polls do not account for all voter demographics.

“If there was any enthusiasm gap, it has certainly vanished over the past couple of weeks,” Kraus said. “I think President Obama’s visit (to Madison on Sept. 28) was a real turning point for voters.”

Kraus criticized poll results from sources like Rasmussen Reports as being skewed because they use only automated telephone recordings for their surveys. He said Feingold’s main supporters – like many other Democrats’ supporters – are youths ages 18 to 25 who usually own cell phones instead of landline telephones.

Sarah Sendek, spokesperson for Johnson, said Johnson’s quick ascent in the polls represented numerous voters looking for a change from Feingold and Democrats.

“I’m sure there is disappointment in voters all over,” Sendek said. The policies from Washington, D.C. represent high spending and job destruction. People want leaders who will solve these problems.”

GOP already capitalizing

Franklin cited numerous polls as strong empirical evidence of an enthusiasm gap among Democrats and also independent voters, and said many races nationwide have already seen the effects.

One example of a Republican upset, he said, is the special Senate election in Massachusetts this year to fill the seat of deceased Sen. Ted Kennedy. Conservative candidate Scott Brown initially trailed his opponent, state Attorney General Martha Coakley, but eventually pulled out a victory in a traditionally Democratic state.

Franklin also referenced the big Republican wins in the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races, two states that Obama won in the 2008 presidential election.

“All three of those states voted for Obama…but in all three, more than 63 percent voted for a Republican in those elections,” Franklin said.

And this nationwide trend is also evident in Wisconsin’s races, according to Franklin.

In the Feingold-Johnson race, Franklin remarked how quickly Johnson rose through the ranks of the Republican Party to garner its endorsement at their state convention in May.

Shortly after the convention, polls showed Johnson trailing Feingold by only a few points, though the majority of voters reported not knowing enough about Johnson to have a favorable or negative opinion of him.

“This polling showed, at least in the spring, it was not about an individual’s qualifications; it was about a Republican – whoever the hell he was – against Feingold,” Franklin said. “I’m not necessarily saying this continues to today, but it shows the power of the partisan forces in May.”

Sendek attributed the surge in support for her candidate to voters being tired of career politician Feingold, who is not quite the “independent maverick” he claims to be.

“Feingold’s support of the stimulus and health care bills put him at odds with voters, and they have the opportunity to express their feelings in November,” Sendek said. “I think that when people see Ron, they now have a candidate they’re excited about.”

In regards to the state’s gubernatorial race, Franklin said this same uphill battle faces Democratic candidate and Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett.

The Republican Scott Walker’s campaign has been tapping into Democratic unrest by aggressively working to link Barrett to both Doyle and Obama since Barrett announced his candidacy last November.

“Across the state, there is increasing frustration in Doyle and the fact that Barrett is just a third term Doyle,” Walker spokesperson Jill Bader said. “I think that the failures of Doyle and the Democrats in Madison as well as the overspending by Democrats in Washington have turned people off.”

And on the Senate race, Johnson has been selling himself as a “citizen legislator” who will not make decisions with reelection in mind, a dig at “career politicians” like Feingold who have extensive experience in the political realm.

What’s a Dem to do?

The Democratic Party has been working hard to try to recapture the energy that fueled the previous years’ races, and even Obama has been out stumping for his fellow Democrats, with multiple visits to Wisconsin in particular.

“Certainly Democrats are trying to mobilize their voters…but a lot of Democratic voters are turning a deaf ear,” Franklin said.

But even Feingold has joined other Democrats in distancing themselves from Obama and other unpopular Democrats. In his Oct. 8 debate against Johnson, Feingold highlighted his independent defiance of his own party, in particular how he opposed Obama sending more troops to Afghanistan.

Feingold also reached out to the conservative Tea Party movement by touting his lone vote against the PATRIOT Act and his work in preserving the right to bear arms, a tactic Franklin said could actually hurt him.

“This year Feingold desperately needs base Democrats as well as to win back independent voters,” Franklin said. “I’m not convinced he can motivate the base Democrats when he says, ‘Hey Tea Party! I’m your guy!'”

Franklin also said it is highly unlikely a group like the Tea Party, who are so fired up against liberal ideals, will vote for a Democrat, even one boasting credentials like Feingold’s.

Barrett has also distanced himself from an unpopular Democrat: the outgoing Gov. Jim Doyle. In his debate on Sept. 24, Barrett made a point of telling Republican opponent Scott Walker that he is not the same person as Doyle.

Barrett pointed out how he actually ran against Doyle in the 2002 Democratic gubernatorial primary because he thought he could do a better job than Doyle.

“The real question in these three weeks before the election is if Democrats can successfully convince quite a bit of Obama’s voters that they have to get out and vote,” Franklin said. “If they do, it will become a closer election, but Republicans have an advantage: the party opposed to the president almost always gains seats.”