During the offseason, the Reds came out of nowhere to sign Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman, making a statement that they have come to play with the big boys for the seasons to come. Whether he, as well as the Red’s other young players, will perform this year, only they and time can tell.
Offense
The Reds enter the season with a couple promising young bats and are looking to make noise in their division. Jay Bruce, who broke onto the scene during the 2008 season, will look to build on the 22 home runs that he hit last year. At 22 years old and with two 20-home run season under his belt, there is no doubt that Bruce is a legitimate power threat.
Whether he can improve his plate discipline and increase his batting average will determine whether he fits the Lance Berkman or Adam Dunn molds.
Brandon Phillips, a front-of-the-order guy who does a little bit of everything, will start at second base. Phillips hit 20 home runs, drove in 98 RBIs, hit .276 and stole 25 bases last season, and is a good locker room presence. If his production improves this year he could help the Reds make some noise in the NL Central.
Joey Votto, the 26-year-old Canada native, will hold down first base for the Reds, who must have been satisfied with the 25 home runs and.322 batting average that he finished the 2009 season with. Votto might be looking at a breakout season, and if one or two of his teammates can do the same, this lineup will be very dangerous.
Scott Rolen will provide the team with a much-needed veteran presence at third base, and at 34 years old is staying productive by batting .305 last season. Ramon Hernandez, a solid defensive catcher, will continue to start behind home plate. Orlando Cabrera will start at short, and Chris Dickerson and Drew Stubbs will round out the outfield.
Pitching
The Reds do not have the best rotation in baseball, but from top to bottom the rotation is dripping with intrigue.
The first two pitchers in the rotation, Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo, have been pitching together in Cincinnati since 2006, and have developed to be two strong front-of-the-rotation pitchers. With an ace pitching in front of them (the Reds hope Homer Bailey or Aroldis Chapman can be that guy), Harang and Arroyo could be very dominant second and third pitchers in a rotation.
Johnny Cueto emerged last year as a solid starter, as well as a solid fantasy stud. While the 24-year-old struggled at times, in his second full season he won eleven games and struck out 132. He reduced his ERA from the season before and is looking to make the same strides this year.
The back end of the Reds’ rotation features two young, highly touted prospects. Homer Bailey, who has a great baseball name but a terrible pitching name, will begin his second full season in the Red’s rotation. Last season he won eight games while only loosing five, and he struck out 86. This season will play a large part in Bailey’s development, showing whether he really is as good as so many scouts thought he would be.
Provided he can hold onto the job, the fifth rotation spot will belong to Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman. While everyone thought that the Yankees or Red Sox would shell out major money to get Chapman, the Reds emerged as the victors. No one is expecting too much from the (alleged) 22-year-old, but he is supposed to have top of the rotation stuff, and I am sure everyone in Cincinnati is waiting to see what he can do.
Edinson Volquez, who had Tommy John surgery last August, will begin the season on the 60-day Disabled List.
Francisco Cordero, who logged 39 saves last season, will continue as the Reds’ closer.
Prediction
Cincinnati, on paper, has a group of ballplayers that could make some serious noise in the NL Central this year. Unfortunately, paper does not always translate into wins.
If Harang can find his form and if Jay Bruce becomes a serious threat in the middle of this lineup, and of course if Homer Bailey begins to show that he is a stud, then the Reds could challenge even the cardinals at the top of the division.
But three ifs is a lot to overcome.
The Reds make a run every year but always tend to fizzle by the end of the season. If they maintain their poise they can finish second or third in the division.
But the more likely case will be that they beat out the Astros for fourth in the Central, and no closer to making the playoffs.