Come this Thursday, Wisconsin men’s basketball fans are going to witness a litmus test of sorts, with the results indicating whether or not UW is capable of a deep postseason run in either the NCAA or Big Ten tournaments.
This year’s clan of Badgers are a rare breed – one that doesn’t shrivel up after emerging from their burrow that is the Kohl Center – and it’s got me thinking that it could avoid an early exit that so many UW teams went through recently.
For the past few years, any excursion outside the Badgers’ home was a perilous one – be it a neutral site or a true road affair. Under head coach Bo Ryan’s tutelage, Wisconsin is 45-42 (.517 winning percentage) away from home in Big Ten games and 93-80 overall (.528).
That’s a whirlwind of difference when the Badgers are home, where Ryan’s crew has gone 79-7 at home versus Big Ten foes (.919) and 153-12 overall (.927).
Those trends have conspicuously reversed this season. After going undefeated at home a year ago, the Grateful Red has had to watch the Badgers lose four times, with three coming against conference enemies. Meanwhile, UW has amassed an 8-2 record away from the Kohl Center and is 6-2 in true road games this season.
This is one year removed from a team that was much better offensively but still went 7-7 away from home and 5-5 in true road games.
The Badgers are even shooting better away from home, hitting 40 percent from the field in conference road games and 23 percent at the Kohl Center.
Fans may, indeed, want the Kohl Center to be a stadium renowned for its inhospitality, but if I had a choice, I’d choose the trend of 2011-12 over 2010-11. The most important games every year are held outside of teams’ comfort zones, and no home court-dependent team is likely to make a run.
Although Wisconsin’s collective shooting has fluctuated quite a bit during the conference season (sitting in 11th place with a .393 shooting percentage in Big Ten games), the Badgers are nevertheless beginning to look like a tournament-ready team thanks to their road victories and terrific defense.
And we’re about to get a big clue about just how ready they are when they travel to East Lansing to dance with the Spartans.
The number of triumphs Wisconsin has earned on the road this year is impressive – it has more true road victories than any other Big Ten team – but the jury is still out on whether it can march through a few rounds of the NCAA tournament.
The most readily available example: failing to convert a single basket in the last 7:43 of regulation against Minnesota.
The Badgers were lucky it came out even with the Gophers after that catastrophe of a final five minutes and had an overtime period to salvage a win. But such calamities wouldn’t fly against top tier talent or in high-stakes tournament time.
Which reminds me: None of those Big Ten teams the Badgers have beaten on the road this year has a winning conference record. As of this moment, Wisconsin’s most impressive win has come at Purdue, which is 6-6 in the Big Ten and hadn’t lost at home in 26 games before UW arrived.
Illinois, Penn State and Minnesota are decent-enough teams (and places where the Badgers had lost the last time they visited) to be proud of pulling a road win out of, but if Wisconsin isn’t kidding people about their crusading ability, they’ll take down a top-notch team in their humble abode.
The No. 8 Spartans sport a 9-3 conference mark and average more than 10 more points per game than they allow. Their average of 40 rebounds per game is ninth-best in the country.
UW has a defense capable of overcoming MSU, and in going 15 of 17 from the free throw line in overtime against Minnesota, the Badgers displayed the mental finesse necessary to close out a tight game.
That the Badgers have a clear-cut winning road record right now is encouraging for the postseason, but the real deal would be for UW to overthrow MSU at the Breslin Center.
Should Wisconsin fall at the hands of Michigan State (by video review or not), the Badgers can still reassure everyone of their road savviness with a win at Ohio State. But if UW wants a statement win (or a regular season title), there’s no time to wait for that.
Elliot is a senior majoring in journalism. Do you think Wisconsin looks like a tournament team this year? Let him know at [email protected] or tweet @BHeraldSports.
