Political pundits have been working nonstop for more than a week now to explain the drubbing Republicans received in this year's mid-term election. The usual theories have been floated — the war in Iraq is going horribly; Congress, as exemplified by Tom DeLay and Bob Ney, is corrupt; voters like stem-cell research; etc. — and while any election is far too complex to be digested as the synthesis of any single factor, all of those reasons hold some weight.
Another common-sense rationale for the GOP's demise is its awful record on fiscal responsibility as of late. Like the other theories, this reason was far from the whole picture — exit polls showed it ranking in the mid-card of issues, nestling beside matters such as immigration — but it definitely registered in the minds of some voters at the polls.
As conservatives look to rebuild their lost domain, however, this is the area they must prioritize. The long-term implications of the fiscal recklessness bode far worse for Republicans than any of the other causes of their Election Day bloodying. Iraq? That's a constantly changing issue. Messrs. DeLay and Ney? They're gone. Stem-cell research? It will never be a big enough issue to sway the average election.
A Republican Party known for careless spending, though, is something to really worry about, because it's anathema to the essence of conservatism. If Republicans are ever to succeed at the polls during peacetime, they have to be seen as the party of smaller government. Exit polls from this year remarkably showed that not to be the case in voters' minds — a majority thought Democrats were the party of fiscal discipline.
In the words of Vito Corleone: "How did things ever get so far?"
The short answer, my friends, takes us back to 1994, when the Newt Gingrich-spearheaded Contract with America delivered Republicans a majority in the House for the first time in 40 years. The newly elected majority wasted little time in pursuing the landmark set of reforms, cutting the number of House committees and their staffs, pursuing tort reform and achieving the era's greatest success with the 1996 welfare reform act.
But then, after the Contract with America's day in the spotlight came to an end, nothing notable filled its place on the conservative agenda. Mr. Gingrich himself was out of a job before the end of the decade.
Federal funding began its sharp increase, rising by $296 billion, or 16 percent, between 2001 and 2003. The hike cannot be solely attributed to increased defense funding — a Heritage Foundation study found funding for defense, and the overall response to the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks accounted for only 45 percent of the increase in spending during the span.
All told, from the early days of the Republican majority in 1995 to a decade later in 2005, the federal government upped its spending by 49 percent (adjusted for inflation), according to the Republican Study Committee caucus. Some of the digression was unavoidable — 9/11 and Katrina plopped huge red marks into the budget — but other parts of it — the Medicare prescription drug plan and the infamous Bridge to Nowhere — most certainly were not.
Meanwhile, despite a friendly White House and control of both houses of Congress, Republicans couldn't reform Social Security by allowing for individuals to get a better return on their money with private accounts. It would have cost money in the short term, but long term it would have saved an out-of-control entitlement program.
The Contract with America was null and void.
Unless that 1994 spirit is restored, the Republican Party should not expect to retake control of the House or Senate anytime soon. Issues like abortion and stem cells will always appeal to a dependable group of social conservatives, but they can't win elections alone. They need moderates and libertarians, who, though never completely satisfied with either party, will usually side with Republicans so long as the GOP is living up to its image as defenders of smaller government.
When Nancy Pelosi embarks on her dreams of emulating the failed policies of the European welfare state, there will need to be a credible alternative. Looking at the GOP as it currently exists, it is hard to see one.
After 12 years in power, the GOP cannot count on people to easily forget the budget mess and remember the conservative values for which the party traditionally stands. It will take real action and several years of image rebuilding.
A good first step would be to name Wisconsin's own Paul Ryan as the ranking member on the House Budget Committee. He has been one of Congress's true fighters for pork-barrel reform, seeking to add transparency to the process by requiring clear lists of earmarks to accompany all appropriations bills. He also authored the sadly unsuccessful Social Security Personal Savings Guarantee and Prosperity Act of 2005.
If Republicans allow people like Mr. Ryan to move to the forefront of the party, they'll reconnect with their roots. Conservatism is as strong as ever. The GOP just needs to practice it.
Ryan Masse ([email protected]) is the editorial board chairman of The Badger Herald.
