A poll released Monday shows the gubernatorial candidates are virtually neck and neck, contrasting sharply with recent polls showing Republican Scott Walker leading Democratic Tom Barrett by up to nine points.
Some experts, however, do not think anyone should get carried away by the new polling results.
The poll conducted by the Mellman Group, a partisan Democratic polling company, found Barrett is only two points behind Walker among voters polled in general, and among voters who are familiar with both candidates, the race is tied. The poll reported a four-point margin of error.
These results stand in opposition to results of a recent St. Norbert’s University poll showing Walker polling ahead with up to a nine point lead, with a five-point margin of error.
Charles Franklin, a political science professor at the University of Wisconsin, said while the Mellman Group is well-regarded and the results are most likely true, partisan polling groups are known for engaging in “selective release” polling projects.
Pollsters collect information for clients on a daily basis and tend to wait for a stretch of a few days that represent positive polling results, while choosing not to release polling results from days that were less favorable, Franklin said.
“It’s not that the campaign pollsters are lying or have a super extra good polling methodology, they are simply releasing the data that looks best for their guy and not telling you about the data that does not look good for their guy,” Franklin said.
Another method involves making it easier for respondents to qualify as being likely to vote, rather than undecided, which can sway poll results one way or another. Franklin said when likely voter requirements are loosened, the results tend to sway more toward the Democratic candidate.
The Mellman poll reported remaining undecided voters in Wisconsin appear to be leaning toward Barrett. However, the St. Norbert’s poll recorded more undecided voters as saying they are likely to vote for Walker over Barrett.
The Barrett campaign touted the poll results as evidence the gubernatorial race is not yet completely in the bag for Walker, calling the race still a “dead heat” in a statement.