While fewer total high school students will be graduating over the next few years nationwide, a greater percentage of the graduates than ever before will be minority students, according to a study released this month.
The March 2008 study was conducted by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, and it showed expected data from 2008-22. According to the study, the Wisconsin public high school graduation rate will decline by more than 8 percent by 2015, although the graduation numbers are expected to increase in the following years.
At the same time, Wisconsin is predicted to have nearly three times as many Hispanic students graduate from public and private high schools in 2022 as it did in 2007. More than 7,800 graduates of the estimated 68,231 high school graduates in 2022 are expected to be Hispanic. Asians and Pacific Islanders are expected to see a sizeable increase in graduation rates in Wisconsin as well.
However, according to a study conducted by the Office of the Provost at the University of Wisconsin in 2004, the changes coming to high school graduating classes in Wisconsin are no surprise.
?[The changes in class makeup] are something we?re aware of, and we?re following trends in the demographics of high school students,? said Tom Reason, associate director of admissions at UW. ?At this point in time there has not been a particular desire or need for dramatic changes in planning [for changes in admissions policies].?
In 2007, nearly 54,500 white students graduated from public and private high schools in Wisconsin. By 2022, the number of whites graduating from high school is expected to be closer to 48,000.
According to the WICHE study, most states, including Wisconsin, are currently at their peak for high school graduation for the next decade. Wisconsin is also one of 10 states projected to have production of graduates slow down five to 10 percent in the next 10 years. This means that colleges will be seeing fewer applicants nationwide and a larger pool of diversity.
Despite the statistics found in these studies, Middleton High School guidance counselor Gale Meyer said the schools are not concerned with graduation rates right now.
?Graduation rates [at Middleton High School] are pretty stable right now. We?re quite concerned about the low rates of minorities graduating,? Meyer said. ?We have often found that low graduation rates can be attributed to economic lines rather than racial lines.?
The study urges everyone involved in education to be aware of the changes facing the makeup of graduating classes today when considering ?curriculum and preparation, the demand for support services, the demand for postsecondary education and affordability.?
According to Meyer, it is programs that are being created now that will contribute to a greater number of minorities graduating in the future.
?We are working with the United Way to create a program that will improve the graduation rates of low-income and minority students. [Having low rates of graduation] for these groups is a difficult problem and one that we face today,? Meyer said.
The change in the demographics of graduating high school seniors is something UW will be paying attention to over the next few years, even though they aren?t anticipating much change to enrollment at the university.
?But it is something we watch very carefully,? Reason said. ?We will be contemplating what impact that may have in enrollment and recruitment.?
