With an appearance in the state capital under John Kerry’s belt and another tentatively set for October, many voters are beginning to wonder if President Bush will continue to steer clear of Madison until Election Day — resigning it as a lost cause too difficult for any conservative candidate to conquer.
“I can understand [Bush] not coming to Madison. There are no votes here and they run the risk of protest,” said UW history professor John Sharpless, adding many Republicans believe local media outlets would bias their coverage of a visit by the president.
“The level of Bush hate in this town is just palpable.”
Sharpless, a conservative who made his own run for political office against U.S. Rep. Tammy Baldwin, D-Madison, in 2000, said the Republican strategy for winning the state’s delegates is to capture the vote in traditionally conservative areas like the Fox River Valley and La Crosse rather than getting GOP political resources “to put down in the middle of the state.”
“They feel if they can capture that vote — and then a spattering across the state — they can win Wisconsin,” Sharpless said, noting, however, that their strategy is far from foolproof. “But they didn’t win the state last time.”
Gore, who visited downtown Madison shortly before Election Day in 2000, won Wisconsin over Bush — albeit by the small margin of 5,708 votes.
Many Democrats contend that Bush’s likely decision to pass over Madison should affect the way students vote on Election Day.
“[Students] should look into the politics of that,” said Rachel Donald, chair of Students for Kerry. “Is he just writing us off?”
In the end, however, Donald says the president’s decision not to put resources into the Madison electorate is his own loss, arguing Bush is losing the chance to convince swing voters here to cast their ballot with the GOP on Nov. 2.
Some experts argue that pouring political capital into capturing the swing vote, which constitutes only a tiny fraction of the entire voting public this election year, would in the end prove a futile effort. Those voters who lean strongly one way or another have already made up their minds and are the ones each party is trying to mobilize on Election Day.
“I think this is a base-driven election,” Sharpless said. “I think a lot of people who are undecided right now won’t vote.”
Indeed, Republicans working on Bush’s campaign admit Madison is not a city where their votes are, and thus will not likely be a magnet for any visits by the president this fall.
“Unfortunately, the truth is, President Bush does have to concentrate where he can win voters,” said Jessi Schober, co-chair of Students for Bush.
But conservatives say Bush is not the only one using a base-driven strategy. Liberals, they claim, are up to the same thing.
“The fact that John Kerry has to come to Madison to shore up his base is an indication of how much trouble he is in here in Wisconsin,” former Republican U.S Rep. Scott Klug said in a statement about Kerry’s visit.
In the end, both sides agree Madison will most likely vote overwhelmingly for Kerry. However, which candidate the swing vote supports in the end remains up for grabs, perhaps also leaving in question both campaigns’ strategy of preaching to the choir.
“I think we will win campus. I definitely think we will win Madison,” Donald said. “But I think conservatives and Nader will have a showing, and not a weak one.”
