Ron Johnson, a millionaire businessman from Oshkosh, prides himself on not being a typical United States Senate candidate: he has no prior political experience and does not wish to make a career of being in office.

And in a political climate where it seems many voters are looking for a change from the status quo, the Republican Johnson quickly gained a lot of momentum and a sizable following, in particular from the Tea Party movement.

Coupled with a declining confidence in Democratic policies, the Tea Party and other independent groups have reinvigorated conservative voters by pushing for a return to ultra-conservative principles at all levels of government.

“Ron Johnson is an organic candidate that sprang up out of the people and made the perfect pitch on how he’d get [the county] back on track,”  Andrew Welhouse, spokesperson for the Republican Party of Wisconsin said.

Whirlwind rise to the top

Johnson, president of the plastics company PACUR, officially entered the race for U.S. Senate in May of this year, just days before the Republican State Convention in Milwaukee.

The Republican primary race already consisted of former state commerce secretary Dick Leinenkugel, Watertown businessman Dave Westlake and Middleton property developer Terrence Wall.

But it was Johnson who walked out of the convention with the full backing of the party, not Wall as many expected.

“[Johnson’s] message clearly resonated with both delegates at the convention as well as the people of Wisconsin,” Welhouse said of the overwhelming vote to endorse Johnson at the convention.

Only Westlake stayed in the race to face Johnson in the primary, which Johnson handily won. Leinenkugel withdrew days before the party convention to give his endorsement to Johnson, and Wall bowed out shortly after the convention.

Wall did not offer any endorsement to either Johnson or Westlake.

Change just for change’s sake?

In an earlier interview with The Badger Herald, University of Wisconsin Political Science professor Charles Franklin mused how Johnson’s popularity in the polls seemed to have little to do with Johnson himself but rather a thirst for any Republican candidate to challenge Feingold.

Franklin, the creator of the survey website Pollster.com, also pointed out how Johnson boasts a substantial Tea Party backing even though some of his initial statements went against the ideals of the movement.

“Some irony of the situation is when Johnson met with Tea Party leaders, he said he’d vote for the Patriot Act, which the Tea Party is against.” Franklin said.

And in the Oct. 8 Senate debate, Feingold also pointed out his strong stance in protection of the Second Amendment, concurrent with the Tea Party’s stance, whereas Johnson would favor permits for gun holders.

“There are definitely issues where Russ is closer to the Tea Party ideals than Johnson,” Feingold spokesperson John Kraus said.

However, Johnson campaign spokesperson Sara Sendek maintained that Johnson’s vigorous base of Tea Party support is due to his platform of smaller government and protection of individual freedoms.

“I think that what we see (in the polls) is his message is really speaking to voters,” Sendek said.

Will Tea Party sway the vote?

Feingold, who has held his Senate seat since 1993, has been behind Johnson in numerous polls for many weeks.

“Feingold, in the latest polling, is still viewed mostly favorably and with positive job approval…but if you saw a candidate trailing by nine points (like Feingold), you’d assume he has a 30 percent approval rating,” Franklin said.

But Feingold’s camp did get reason to hope on Tuesday when a poll conducted by St. Norbert College indicated Feingold lagged behind Johnson by a mere two points.

The poll, which sampled 402 likely voters over landline telephones, also showed that of the 4 percent of undecided voters, slightly more leaned toward Feingold than Johnson.

However, because this poll contrasts so sharply with other political opinion polls Franklin did not entirely trust the results.

“[This poll] used a rather small sample size. For a sample size of about 400, the margin of error is usually plus or minus 10 points,” Franklin said. “Until I see a second or third poll showing similar results, I’m going to be skeptical.”

Franklin did say he does not fully suspect a Democratic bias in the poll, as the results of the gubernatorial race match up between Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett and Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker showed a lead for Walker consistent with other polls.

Kraus previously said the Feingold campaign does not see most polls as accurate, as they do not provide an accurate representation of voters under age 30, an age group who mostly supports Feingold.

Franklin said in theory younger voters are typically not included in the polls because few people in that age group own landline phones and they typically refuse to participate in surveys. However, he said the McClatchy-Marist poll conducted earlier this month took cell phone results into account and still showed Johnson with a 7 percent lead.

Franklin added younger people are also typically absent from the polls during midterm elections, which may hurt Democrats who are already struggling for votes.

Franklin also noted the irony of this year’s Senate race, given the fact Johnson is very similar to Feingold’s 2004 Republican challenger Tim Michels, who Feingold defeated for re-election by 12 percent of the vote.

Franklin attributes this switch in places for Feingold to this year’s phenomenon of a supercharged conservative electorate, courtesy of the Tea Party and other groups, coupled with a jaded Democratic base.

The Feingold camp, however, does not see the Tea Party as a threat to their chances.

“The election is not decided by one key group. Tea party voters are just one part of the electorate. I don’t know if they have any more impact than young voters do in elections,” Kraus said.

Welhouse said Republicans are confident Johnson will emerge victorious from the Nov. 2 election.

“I don’t know what Russ can do to change Ron’s momentum,” Welhouse said. “The people of Wisconsin are making it very clear they’re not happy with the Democrats’ direction of the state and the country.”

Due to an editing error, the subhead for this story read “After the group’s endorsement of Johnson…” While many tea party groups support Johnson, there has been no official endorsement. We regret the error.