After closing out the two west divisions, we now move to the middle of the country. Still moving left to right, we begin with the most western team of the central division, the Houston Astros in west Texas.
Offense
The Astros have a couple strong bats in their lineup, which will ease the burden of both the young players batting behind them, as well as the inexperienced rotation that will be backing them up on the defensive end.
Hunter Pence has been tempting the Astros with his potential for the past couple seasons. In his three full seasons in the majors he has hit 18, 25, and 25 homeruns, but has never logged 100 or more RBIs. He is 26 years old now, and will be looking to establish himself as the best hitter on his team. Look for Pence to have a strong season in Houston.
Carlos Lee will continue to do what he has been doing for years as he holds down the clean-up spot in the Astros’ lineup. Lee has hit .300 or better and brought in 100 RBIs in every season that he has been in Houston.
The only concern with Lee is that his homerun total has been steadily declining since he was traded from Milwaukee. In 2006 he blasted 37 homeruns, compared to the 32, 28, and 26 that he has hit in the years since. For a power bat with a history of weight problems, this can be a very telling sign that the end might be around the corner.
Lance Berkman has been a cornerstone of the Astros lineup since he came into the league over ten years ago. He has consistently hit for his numbers over the decade, and there is no reason to think that will stop this season.
While his stats were down from the beast of a season that Berkman had in 2008, he still hit .274 last year with 25 homeruns and 80 RBIs. He will provide much needed consistency for an inconsistent lineup.
The Astros acquired Pedro Feliz after he was released from the Phillies following their World Series loss. He drove in 82 RBIs last year and should bring his winning attitude with him. Kaz Matsui will get the start at second, J.R. Towles gets his first chance as a full time starter behind home plate, Tommy Manzella will start his rookie season at short, and Michael Bourn will start in center field.
Pitching
Roy Oswalt will begin the season as the Astros’ opening day starter, despite putting up his worst numbers since entering the league in 2001. He only won eight games last year, far off his career average of 15-plus wins per season.
More noticeable is the 4.12 ERA he put up last year, well off his career average of 3.23. Oswalt also threw 25 fewer strikeouts than he has averaged in his time in the majors. This season will provide the answer to the question of whether Roy Oswalt still has the stuff to be one of baseball’s top pitchers.
Wandy Rodriguez takes over the second spot in the rotation, looking to building upon his strong 2009 season in which he won 14 games, struck out 193 and posted a 3.02 ERA. Rodriguez is 31 years old so only he knows if he has enough to for a repeat season. Look for him to step up if Oswalt begins to show his age.
Bud Norris gets his shot as a full time starter in the third spot, Bret Myers will fill in the fourth spot (it is his spot to loose) and Brian Moehler, the 38-year-old in his 13th season looks to prove that he still has what it takes to pitch in the majors.
Provided he is ready for the beginning of the season, Brandon Lyon will take over the closing job after being a set-up man in Detroit. If he falters, Matt Lindstrom will be waiting in the pen.
Prediction
The two central divisions are always the two hardest to predict. The seemingly unlimited potential of the Cubs offense, combined with the balance of the Cardinals and two young teams in the Reds and Brewers makes the NL Central particularly confusing.
It will be hard for the Astros to keep up with the Cardinals as the season comes to an end. If the Cubs can find what they need to put together a strong season then this division becomes even tougher.
Houston would have to overachieve in a serious way to have any shot at the division, or even the wild card spot that is most likely coming out of the west. The Astros are looking at another season in the middle of the central division, and can finish anywhere from second to last depending on their own and their rivals’ play.
I predict a fifth place finish for the Astros, who will at least have the Pittsburgh Pirates to look down on when everything is said and done.