NL West
1) San Diego: The Padres may be the most-improved team in baseball this season. The addition of Brian Giles, one of the game’s most productive players and best clubhouse guys, is enormous. Ryan Klesko and Phil Nevin are always good, and Jay Payton and Ramon Hernandez will help, but the success will come down to a very talented but unproven young staff.
2) San Francisco: Gone are mainstays Benny Santiago and Tim Worrell, and the Giants may have more trouble than they imagine filling their shoes. With Robb Nen back on the disabled list, San Fran has no reliable closer for the early-going. AJ Pierzynski could be a big part of the team, but will be switching leagues and pitching staffs. Jason Schmidt is good, but needs to get healthy quickly.
3) Arizona: No two players in baseball this year will have more on their shoulders than Randy Johnson and Brandon Webb. With Miguel Batista and Curt Schilling jumping ship in the offseason, and the D-backs’ still a mediocre offensive team (even with the addition of Richie Sexson), Webb and Johnson hold their team’s 2004 fate in their hands.
4) Los Angeles: The story this season for the Dodgers, as always, is going to be told by the pitchers. With Brian Jordan, one of the few Dodgers who could be counted as a positive force gone, Paul Lo Duca, Adrian Belte and Shawn Green will have to have big comeback seasons for the offense to be a factor at all. The pitching staff should be good, with Jeff Weaver a good comeback candidate.
5) Colorado: The Rockies hope to have finally found a pitching staff that can get the job done at Coors Field. Shawn Estes is this season’s opening-day starter, with Jason Jennings and Joe Kennedy to follow in the rotation. Shawn Chacon is the new closer. Offensively, it’s still Todd Helton’s show, and Vinny Castilla is back for another go-round.
NL Central
1) St. Louis: Albert Pujols, Edgar Renteria, Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds give the Cards best young core to their lineup in either league — both offensively and defensively. The biggest concern for Tony LaRussa and company will be the starting rotation. Matt Morris is coming off of a down year, and Woody Williams has arm issues. Either Chris Carpenter or Jason Marquis will need to step up.
2) Houston: Roger Clemens and Andy Petitte are huge additions to an already-decent rotation, but the defection of Billy Wagner may prove to be the ‘Stros’ most meaningful offseason transaction. Houston goes from having the best ‘pen in the game to having one where every player (led by Octavio Dotel) will be asked to step into a new role.
3) Chicago: Mark Prior is probably the best young player in the game, but he’ll start the season off on the DL. He pitched a lot of innings for a young hurler last year and, if time shows that his arm didn’t handle it, the Cubs may have an all-new curse on their hands. Greg Maddux and Derrek Lee are both nice additions, but there are still issues in the pen and in the lineup.
4) Milwaukee: Ned Yost and company hope that trading their best player — Richie Sexson — will make them a better team overall. Run production falls on the shoulders of Geoff Jenkins and Wes Helms, and new additions Junior Spivey and Ben Grieve will look to find the form of years past. 2004 may be make or break time for RHP Ben Sheets.
5) Pittsburgh: The Pirates sold most of their decent players off at the end of last year, leaving them with mainly youth to field this season. Raul Mondesi and Jason Kendall are both decent, proven players, but probably won’t be able to make the kind of impact the Pirates need. A player to watch will be Kris Benson, back from injury and promptly on the trading block.
6) Cincinnati: Ken Griffey, Jr. is hurt already … big surprise. If the Reds can find a taker, he’ll be gone as soon as he can walk. Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns are two of the most promising young hitters in the game and lead a potentially potent lineup, and with Cory Lidle penciled in as the opening-day starter, the Reds will need every bit of offense they can get.
NL East
1) Philadelphia: Last year, the Phillies added Kevin Millwood to anchor the rotation, and Jim Thome to beef up the offense. This season, they’ve added Billy Wagner to solidify the bullpen. RHP Brett Myers is a future stud, solidifying a rotation that includes Randy Wolf, Vincente Padilla and Eric Milton. Jimmy Rollins and Pat Burrell look to rebound from disappointing 2003 seasons.
2) Florida: Even without Pudge Rodriguez, Ugie Urbina and Derrek Lee, the fish are plenty talented. Juan Pierre and Luis Castillo are still at the top of the order, and budding superstar Miguel Cabrera joins Mike Lowell, Jeff Conine and Hee Seop Choi (acquired for Lee) in the middle of the order. Josh Beckett is ready to shine, and A.J. Burnett is back in action.
3) Atlanta: The 12-time defending division champs will have a much different look in 2004, as Javy Lopez, Greg Maddux and Gary Sheffield are a thing of the past. Bobby Cox will depend on Andruw and Chipper Jones, Rafael Furcal and Marcus Giles for offense. J.D. Drew hopes a change of scenery leads to a clean bill of health.
4) New York: The other New York club made some big-name additions of its own, signing Mike Cameron to play center and Japanese import Kaz Matsui at short, sliding speedy youngster Jose Reyes over to 2B. Mike Piazza’s move to 1B begins this season. He and second-year man Jason Phillips will share the C/1B duties.
5) Montreal: Optimism is much lower north of the border than in years past. Vladimir Guerrero and Javier Vasquez are the latest Expo talents to move on. The keystone combo of Orlando Cabrera and Jose Vidro are joined by up-and-coming OF Brad Wilkerson and 1B Nick Johnson, as well as the aging Carl Everett.
AL West
1) Oakland: With Mark Redman joining Tim Hudson, Barry Zito, Mark Mulder and Rich Harden, the As have assembled the strongest pitching staff in baseball. However, losing Miguel Tejada will hurt Oakland’s offensive production, and the loss of Keith Foulke leaves the closing duties to Arthur Rhodes, who has never registered more than four saves in a season.
2) Anaheim: An already-talented club got even better with the addition of superstar Vladimir Guerrero. After adding the Guerrero and Jose Guillen, the Angels will move Darin Erstad to 1B. As if Vlady wasn’t enough, Bartolo Colon and Kelvim Escobar join Jared Washburn and Ramon Ortiz in the starting rotation. Garrett Anderson and his picture-perfect left-handed swing is still the key to the Angels’ success.
3) Seattle: The Mariners will spend much of this season proving that they can overcome the offseason losses of slick-fielding, 4-home-run-in-a-game-hitting Mike Cameron to the Mets, bullpen bulldog Arthur Rhodes to the As and formerly great closer Kaz Sasaki to retirement. Eddie Guardado is a good replacement closer, but the Mariners desperately need some of their starting pitchers to rebound.
4) Texas: The A-Rod experiment is over, and the Rangers will move on with Alfonso Soriano, Michael Young, Mark Texiera and Hank Blaylock as their new offensive nucleus. Veterans Brad Fullmer and Brian Jordan were brought in to add to an offense that should score its share of runs in 2004. As always, pitching is a question mark.
NL Central
1) Kansas City: Tony Pena’s surprise squad from last season should be able to hold on down the stretch this time around. Juan Gonzalez, if healthy and happy (two big ifs), should provide a big enough bat to easily replace Raul Ibanez’s. A full season of Carlos Beltran should show that he can produce with the best in the game. Angel Berroa looked like one of the best middle-infielders in the game last year.
2) Minnesota: The spotlight will be on rookie catching prospect Joe Mauer this season, who the Twins liked enough to trade proven-commodity AJ Pierzynski to the Giants. Johan Santana, one of the AL’s best starters after moving to the rotation from the pen last season, is an ace-in-the-making. The jury is out on Joe Nathan, who will be counted on to close.
3) Cleveland: Victor Martinez, Milton Bradley, Travis Hafner, CC Sabathia, Jason Davis and Jody Gerut are all at various points in the process of becoming stars. If a couple of those guys can have decent seasons and Omar Vizquel and Matt Lawton can return to the form of past seasons, the Indians could be a surprisingly dangerous team in the AL Central.
4) Chicago: Chronic headaches Bartolo Colon and Carl Everett are gone, as is much of last season’s underachieving White Sox squad. Unfortunately, with temperamental holdovers like Frank Thomas, Mark Buehrle and Paul Konerko, there’s not much chance of the Sox clubhouse dynamic improving much. Chicago is a prime contender to be one of the most disappointing teams in the majors this year.
5) Detroit: With the additions of Fernando Vina, Ugueth Urbina and Ivan Rodriguez, the Tigers have probably improved themselves enough to not make a run at the all-time loss record again this season. In the rotation, Mike Maroth and Jeremy Bonderman aren’t as bad as their records from last season indicate, and Jason Johnson is decent, but Detroit is certainly not close to good enough to be a contender anytime soon.
AL East
1) New York: The acquisition of Alex Rodriguez and Gary Sheffield gives the Bombers one of the most powerful offenses in baseball history. Despite losing Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens, the addition of Kevin Brown and Javier Vasquez gives the Yankees a solid rotation, while Paul Quantrill and Tom Gordon provide bullpen depth that New York has not seen since the Stanton/Nelson era.
2) Boston: Five-time All-Star Curt Schilling joins three-time Cy Young Award winner Pedro Martinez to form a one-two punch that rivals the Schilling-Randy Johnson combination that led the Diamondbacks to a World Series title in 2001. With the addition of Keith Foulke, Boston finally has a solid closer to complement its impressive starting rotation and powerful offense.
3) Toronto: Carlos Delgado and Vernon Wells lead a potent Toronto offense that ranked second in the American League in runs scored last season (894). Reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Roy Halladay heads a questionable pitching staff that includes a pair of promising journeymen, Miguel Batista and Ted Lilly.
4) Baltimore: Under first-year manager Lee Mazzilli, the Orioles added former MVP Miguel Tejada, former Oriole Rafael Palmeiro and three-time All-Star Javy Lopez to revamp an offense that had just one player knock in 100 RBI last season. Sidney Ponson returns to anchor a struggling pitching staff that will likely be the squad’s downfall.
5) Tampa Bay: With a blazer like Carl Crawford hitting in front of Rocco Baldelli and Aubrey Huff, the Devil Rays may make some noise offensively despite losing Travis Lee. However, with Victor Zambrano (4.48 career ERA) headlining the starting rotation and young closer Danys Baez leading the bullpen, pitching will be a question mark in Tampa.