If you’re reading this in your 9:55 class, then you’ve got about 24 hours left to complete your NCAA bracket. If instead, you’re reading this in a 2:30 power lecture because you didn’t get up for your early class, then you’re like me and have even less time to finish it.
Jordan went over his initial bracket thoughts Monday and a now older, wiser, 22-year-old Bleach (his birthday was yesterday) gave you the tips you need to win your pool. But there might be one last question on your mind before putting the finishing touches on that bracket (you hope) will win you enough money to finally pay rent and stop eating Ramen for a month:
What do you do with Wisconsin?
There’s always the problem of being too much of a hometown fan; how far can you have UW going in the Dance before your friends start accusing you of being blinded by Bucky love?
Well, if you’re bold, you can have them going to the Final Four — and here’s why.
The Badgers got a No. 4 seed, which is certainly appropriate. Had they done better in the Big Ten tournament, they might have bumped themselves up to a No. 3 seed, but uh… whoops. Anyway, unless a terrible case of food sickness takes out enough starters that Ian Markolf and Wquinton Smith have to see significant minutes, Wisconsin should cruise past Wofford into the second round.
From there, UW can make a strong case to get into the Sweet 16, whether you think the win will be over public school athletes or the trendy upset Ivy League-ers.
It’s not too much of a stretch to get the Badgers into the second weekend of play. In fact, it would be a disappointment not to see the matchup that is less cut-and-dry than it might look –Kentucky versus Wisconsin.
I’m sure a Kansas-Kentucky championship is probably what everyone (and by everyone, I mean CBS) wants to see. But should the Wildcats face the Badgers in the Sweet 16, Bo’s Bunch will be a tough out for a number of reasons.
Wisconsin is third in the overall Pomeroy Ratings, behind Duke (No. 1) and Kansas (No. 2). The Badgers are 13th in adjusted offensive efficiency at 116.5 points per 100 offensive possessions and seventh in adjusted defensive efficiency at 87.3 points allowed per opponents’ 100 offensive possessions.
More importantly, UW ranks higher than Kentucky in both, with the Wildcats coming in at 10th defensively and 18th offensively.
The Badgers also have proved they can beat top teams, both in conference and out — remember the convincing win over Duke and the early season win over Maryland?
Don’t forget to factor in the team succeeding without Jon Leuer for nine games and the team’s lack of turnovers, as well as the Badgers’ scoring defense, which ranks No. 4 in the nation.
Something else to consider is the style of play.
Kentucky’s roster is certainly more talented than Wisconsin’s, nobody will argue that. But the Wildcats like to run and keep the tempo fast, while we all know the Badgers will take their sweet time. As Bleach pointed out yesterday, the teams that are more comfortable slowing a game down and dictating the pace — like UW — often find success.
Factoring in Wisconsin’s experience can play a role as well.
UK’s youth was on display in its closer-than-necessary win over Mississippi State in the SEC tournament final. Of course, its talent was also apparent as John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins helped ensure the win.
But faced with an uncomfortably slow game and hypothetically (gasp) being down by more than a few points, will the young guns rise to the occasion, or could UW’s veteran calmness secure an upset win?
In an interesting note, ESPN’s game predictor tool compares matchups in a number of factors, including an AccuScore play-by-play simulation of a game between the two teams, giving a percentage of times each team won the contest over 10,000 simulations or so.
In those simulations, Wisconsin won 54 percent of the time. How about that.
I’m not the only one who backs the idea of Bo Ryan getting back to at least the Elite Eight. CBS Sports’ Jon Rothstein thinks Wisconsin is Kentucky’s biggest obstacle to getting to Indianapolis, citing the experience the Badgers have in their seniors. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi is with me too, with the bracketology guru going as far as to call the upset in favor of UW.
Of course, Lunardi’s opinion can be taken with a grain of salt; I’m pretty sure he had the Badgers as a No. 5 seed last Monday and then, after watching them lose to Illinois in the Big Ten tournament quarterfinals, bumped them up to a No. 3 in his final projection.
Obviously, in the case Wisconsin does beat Kentucky, it would have to play another game to get to the Final Four, most likely against West Virginia.
The good news there is the Badgers won an impressive 63 percent of the simulations over the Mountaineers, for what it’s worth. Should that matchup take place, and UW shuts down Da’sean Butler, the Badgers can celebrate the 10-year anniversary of their last Final Four by making another one.
The smart money is on Kentucky making the Final Four. They’ve got the right combination of defense, offense and NBA-level talent to do it. Chances are that even if UK has its hands full with UW, the Wildcats still come out on top — I’m not calling the upset, just giving you reasons it could happen.
But if you’re in a deep bracket pool and are looking for a solid dark horse, you could do a lot worse than the Badgers.
Adam is a junior majoring in journalism. If you end up winning money because you picked the Badgers, you can send him your belated thanks in April to [email protected].
