My buddies called me a foolish optimist when I said the 2009 Wisconsin football team would be much improved, and according to the national media, my nine- or 10-win preseason prediction, despite a visibly weak schedule, was way off base. But five weeks into the season, Bret Bielema and his boys are meeting my high expectations, and now I’m getting shout-outs in Mike Bleach’s columns. Life is pretty good.
I knew this team would come into 2009 with something to prove, and they have certainly shown improvement, but I must admit, before the season started, I circled tomorrow’s Ohio State game as a loss. I thought OSU would be too strong for this team, too talented for this team, especially at the Horseshoe.
Well, I’ve changed my mind. This team has what it takes to compete with the Buckeyes and a Ohio State victory is far from guaranteed.
Here’s why.
I’ll start by saying that Wisconsin just plays Ohio State tough — every single year. Just ask OSU head coach Jim Tressel and he’ll be the first to tell you. The man with the sweater vest is just 3-3 in his career against UW.
Two seasons ago, UW went into the Horseshoe and held a lead midway through the third quarter. The Badgers were in a position to win that game until it all fell apart in the late stages. It was a disappointing loss, but keep in mind that was the OSU team that ended up playing for the National Championship.
I’m sure most of you remember what happened last season. The Badgers played one of their best games of the season and held a lead late into the fourth quarter only to see Terrelle Pryor lead an 80-yard, game-winning touchdown drive. That OSU team only lost three games last season — all to teams who were ranked in the top three.
So, despite UW appearing severely overmatched, the Badgers hung tough and nearly beat two BCS-bound Ohio State squads.
This year the Badgers aren’t so overmatched. This time, UW brings the best offense in the Big Ten to Columbus.
Guess who leads the conference in points per game? That would be UW.
Which Big Ten team has the highest third-down conversion percentage? Wisconsin. And their 56.3 percent conversion rate is good for third-best in the nation.
What about rushing offense? Once again, it’s the Badgers at the top of the conference thanks to John Clay’s 116.4 yards per game. By the way, in the last four meetings between OSU and UW, the team with the game’s leading rusher is 4-0.
Who has the best red-zone offense? You know, where execution is most important, especially on the road? Yup, you guessed it (or I really hope you did). It’s the Tolzien-led UW offense that is top in the Big Ten, converting 18 of 22 chances into touchdowns. And one more thing — that Tolzien guy leads the conference in pass efficiency, too.
The stats don’t lie — this Wisconsin offense is surging right now and you’re going to need a unit that can score points when traveling to Columbus. Ohio State has the Big Ten’s top defense (though Iowa might have something to say about that) as they are only giving up around 12 points per game.
We will see how potent this Wisconsin offense really is on Saturday, but with the Big Ten’s top running back, top tight end and arguably the top offensive line (only two sacks given up all year), I like their chances against a top-ranked defense.
Now that I’ve made the Wisconsin offense look like the greatest show on turf, it’s time to focus on UW’s defense.
Against a guy as athletically gifted as Pryor, you have got to get a solid performance from the defensive line. We saw the kind of problems Pryor can create in last year’s meeting, and after chasing the 6-foot-6 quarterback for four quarters, the Wisconsin D-line just looked winded. So how do you fix that?
Rotation, rotation, rotation.
Defensive line coach Charlie Partridge was limited to four linemen last season, but this year a nearly 10-man rotation has made a significant difference.
“It just makes a big difference in the fourth quarter to have fresh legs,” Partridge said. “I think the best example of that is the end of the Minnesota game where we rushed the passer as good we as we did all day, and without the rotation, we would not have been able to do that.”
Pryor is going to run. It’s what he is best at, so defensive linemen are going to be more worn out than usual running this guy down. That is why the rotation is so crucial. As opposed to last season’s battle between these two teams where UW wore down on the final drive, Wisconsin will constantly have fresh bodies rushing the passer.
Look, I’m not the only one who thinks the Badgers have a legitimate shot to upset the Buckeyes.
Ever heard of a guy named Barry Alvarez? He’s the man who has a statue outside the gates of Camp Randall. He won three Rose Bowls as UW’s head coach and he brought this football program up from nothing and put it on the map. It’s fair to say this guy knows a good football team when he sees one.
Alvarez, now the school’s athletic director, spoke to the team before practice on Tuesday, and this wasn’t your typical check-in from the AD.
“Everybody was ready to play the game after he talked to us — he got us real amped up,” senior captain O’Brien Schofield said. “He told us how to beat them.”
This type of thing doesn’t happen very often. Alvarez rarely addresses the team when it comes to football as he just oversees the program as athletic director. I don’t ever remember him giving a pep talk to the team in the past three seasons. But even Alvarez sees something special in this team, and he delivered a powerful message to a group of players that have a stiff challenge in front them.
Obviously, the Buckeyes are a talented squad and a win in the Horseshoe doesn’t come too often. But Wisconsin has beaten very good Ohio State teams before and they can do it again. I’m not making any guarantees, but the Badgers have the firepower on offense to hang with a stout OSU defense, and they now possess a new and improved D-line that is better suited to defend Pryor.
Will the Badgers topple the Big Ten’s perennial powerhouse in their own stadium and take a gigantic step toward a conference title in the process?
I believe this team has all the necessary components to do just that.
Max is a junior majoring in journalism. He knows the Badgers. He can be reached at [email protected].