While Lebanon lost one of the greatest leaders in its history on Monday, Lebanon’s neighbor Syria is perhaps the party set to lose the most out of the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.

Prime Minister Hariri was assassinated by a car bomb in the heart of the Lebanese capital, Beirut, on Monday that also killed 13 others, including his bodyguards. Mr. Hariri is widely regarded as the “rebuilder” of a country destroyed by a civil war that lasted from 1975 to 1990. As he was instrumental in reaching the peace agreement that ended the war, he led the country for many of the years following. His large network in the business world and diplomatic arenas encouraged significant investments and construction in the war-torn country.

While Lebanon has witnessed numerous political assassinations over the years, some using car bombs and others less gruesome methods, Hariri’s assassination stands out on many different levels. Not only was it particularly violent — a large bomb in the heart of the crowded capital at a least expected time, but also it targeted Lebanon’s most beloved politician and businessman, “Mr. Lebanon,” as he is often referred to. The significantly destabilizing effect the assassination is likely to have on Lebanon leads to the belief that the attacker(s) are a party least concerned with Lebanon’s well-being, perhaps even seeking to destabilize it.

Shortly after the assassination took place, many rushed to blame Syria for it. Syria has many interests in Lebanon and very close relations with the Lebanese administration, including some 15,000 troops in the country — the U.S. has 117,000 troops in Europe — and significant cooperation between the two countries’ intelligence establishments.

A few weeks ago, the UN Security Council passed resolution 1559, advocated by the U.S. and France, which called for a withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon. Syria, and many in Lebanon, including the president and several prominent politicians, rejected the resolution which they viewed as unwelcome meddling in their internal affairs. Mr. Hariri, however, has recently become a vocal critic of Syria’s influence over Lebanon, including the military presence, though he enjoyed special relations with Syrian officials and businessmen alike that serviced his large business network.

Those who blamed Syria for the assassination surely have several, however naively transparent, justifications.

Irrespective of who actually committed the crime, it appears Syria will suffer as a result, particularly its relations with the West, namely the U.S. and France. However, the simplicity of the connections to Syria and the spontaneity in which fingers were pointed should have another indication: the Syrians are not behind Hariri’s assassination, even if they had a reason to, as such a blatant move is political suicide.

Syria has a vested interest in a stable Lebanon, even more so nowadays as the relationship between the two countries has been put under the microscope with the passage of UNSCR 1559. It is not in Syria’s interest that this relationship is put under scrutiny, let alone international investigation.

The hawks in the Bush administration, particularly those with strong ties to the Israeli security establishment such as David Wurmser and Douglas Feith, have long advocated a regime change in Syria, a toppling of the government along the lines of the Iraq invasion. Though their assessment often contradicted that of the CIA and the State Department, who viewed Syria as an essential partner in the fight against Al Qaeda, their hawkish policies have so far remained on paper, the latest events likely to bolster their position.

As it is abundantly clear that the U.S.-Syrian relations are the most likely candidates to suffer in the aftermath of Hariri’s assassination, it becomes hard to believe that Syria has any involvement in the incident, especially given its tradition in avoiding confrontation, particularly with the U.S. Indeed, it is most probable that a third party, one who has a primary interest in harming the U.S.-Syria relation, stand covertly behind the attack. It is also unlikely that the perpetrators are Lebanese, given the harm such an attack inflicts on their country.

Fayyad Sbaihat ([email protected]) is a senior majoring in chemical engineering.