Republican candidates are leading Democrats in almost every possible matchup for governor and Senate races, according to a survey released Tuesday by Wisconsin Public Radio and St. Norbert College.
The survey of 400 Wisconsin residents showed Republican gubernatorial candidates Mark Neumann and Scott Walker are essentially even, with Neumann having support from 23 percent of those polled and Walker 24 percent.
When matched against Democratic candidate Tom Barrett, polling indicated one of the Republican candidates would receive the majority of votes.
For the United States Senate race, Russ Feingold holds a lead of 3 percent over any Republican challenger, except for Tommy Thompson. If Thompson does decide to run, the survey showed he would beat Feingold 45 percent to 33 percent.
Incumbent politicians also received low approval ratings. According to the survey, only 25 percent of Wisconsin residents would vote for their incumbent legislator in the U.S. House of Representatives.
This reflected a trend of overall dissatisfaction with state government officials, as only 32 percent of people approved of the way the State Legislature is doing its job. Gov. Jim Doyle also faced a decrease in voter support, with an approval rating of 34 percent, only half of what he had when he took office in 2003.
While some may see these results as a recall on a Democratic-controlled legislature and governorship, this may not be the case, said Wendy Scattergood, assistant professor of political science at St. Norbert and an analyst for the survey.
Scattergood added all incumbents faced similar decreases in approval ratings, no matter what party they belonged to.
“There’s a lot of fear and a lot of distrust going on about incumbents,” Scattergood said.
In Scattergood’s opinion, the disapproval of incumbents has a lot more to do with current economic conditions than what side of the aisle they sit on.
According to the survey, 54 percent of Wisconsin residents consider the economy and jobs the most pressing issue for Wisconsin. Coming in second was budget, deficit, debt and taxes, which 24 percent of people surveyed thought were the biggest problems facing the state.
Other problems considered priorities for the state included government ethics, education, health care and the environment.
Scattergood acknowledged some additional factors may have affected the results, like conducting surveys over landlines. This may have excluded certain groups who exclusively use cell phones, like students and other young adults.
In addition, the use of landlines to conduct the polling could have also excluded data from individuals without access to a telephone, including low-income individuals and families.
Another factor that may have affected the poll, according to Scattergood, was that it was conducted the day after the controversial health care reform bill was passed.
Despite these potential problems, Scattergood said the Wisconsin Survey remains one of the most accurate tools for gauging public opinion in the state and capturing a “snapshot in time”.
“In the last election, our poll was the closest of any poll, including the national companies,” Scattergood said.