Winter lovers who have been disappointed by the amount of snow this winter season — or lack thereof — may be in for some more disappointment, as University of Wisconsin researchers say mild winters like this season’s may be here to stay.
Stephen Vavrus, UW senior scientist at the Center for Climatic Research, said multiple records including Lake Mendota’s ice cover record demonstrates the increase in warmer temperatures during the winter season.
Though Vavrus said there has been some variability in temperature and amount of snow in the past couple winter seasons, variabilities in winter season are not representative of the long term warming trend that is occurring.
Vavrus said this increase is due in part to the increase in green house gases over the past hundred years or so.
The increase in mild winters would also lead to an increase in precipitation. Though there would be less snow, Vavrus said there will likely be an increase in Wisconsin rainfall during the earlier and later winter months of November and March.
But warmer temperatures and high percentages of precipitation could lead to several problems.
“One of the problems with higher rainfalls in the winter … if the ground is still frozen you can get run-off problem and that could lead to flooding,” Vavrus said. “It also hasn’t been proven yet in climate models, but I would also suspect we would see a trend toward more freezing rain leading to problems with icing.”
Michael Notaro, Nelson Institute Center for Climatic Research associate director, said the melting snowpacks in the spring usually provide moisture for the soil and growing season. If there is more rain, it could potentially lead to droughts because there would not be enough moisture absorbed into the soil.
In addition, the lack of snowpacks could also have a large biological impact. Notaro said less snow increases the mobility of deer and causes mallard ducks to migrate south later, creating more pressure on available food sources.
Snow insulates the soil below, creating a subnivean environment for animals to live beneath, Notaro said. Less snow would mean the loss of those protective environments that animals like the snowshoe hare depend on to survive.
“If there’s not enough snow on the ground and it changes because of the sunlight, [snowshoe hares] stand out and they get killed by predators,” Notaro said.
