New polling results show Gov. Scott Walker is five points ahead of his Democratic opponent Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett in Wisconsin’s upcoming June recall elections, a difference from previous polls which showed Barrett and Walker neck-and-neck.

According to a Rasmussen statewide telephone survey, 50 percent of Wisconsin’s likely voters would vote for Walker and 45 percent would vote for Barrett in a recall election. Additionally, the survey said two percent of the state’s likely voters prefer a different candidate, while another two percent remain undecided. Rasmussen is a conservative polling organization. 

The survey of 500 likely Wisconsin voters was conducted Wednesday and Thursday, the report said. Rasmussen also said the poll had a margin of error of 4.5 percent.

The polling differs with results from a Marquette Law School poll released prior to this week’s primary elections. The Marquette Law School poll results showed Walker leading Barrett 48 to 47 percent among likely voters, while Barrett led Walker 47 to 46 percent among all registered voters. Both of these results fall within the margin of error.

Still, the results showing a dip in support for Barrett may not indicate a substantial change in favorability toward him, University of Wisconsin political science professor John Coleman said in an email to The Badger Herald. He said the polling may just reflect the closeness of the race.

“Polls operate within margins of error of a few points, so someone moving up or down a couple points across various polls is no surprise,” Coleman said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if the next poll that came out had Gov. Walker ahead by five points, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it had the race tied.”

Coleman also said he does not see any direct correlation between Barrett’s recent win as the Democratic candidate for Wisconsin’s upcoming recall election and his lower favorability in the Rasmussen poll results.

UW political science professor Barry Burden said in an email to The Badger Herald variation in results between the newly-released Rasmussen poll and the Marquette Law School poll probably has little statistical difference.

However, he said the two surveys used different interviewing methods, with the Marquette Law School poll using live interviews and the Rasmussen poll relying on recorded voices to conduct the interviews. This may have an effect on who responded to the survey, Burden said.

“Averaging these and other surveys, it seems safest to conclude that Walker has a slight lead,” Burden said.

Regardless of poll results, Walker and his campaign team are “confident … voters will reaffirm the decision they made a year ago,” Walker’s spokesperson Tom Evenson said in an email to The Badger Herald.

The Barrett campaign did not return a request for comment.

Of the publicly available polls since January, Walker has been ahead in four and Barrett in three, with a gap between the candidates ranging from one to six points, Coleman said.

“This points to the value of not treating any one poll as the definitive story,” Coleman said. “It’s better to look for patterns.”