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The Badger Herald

Independent Student Newspaper Since 1969

The Badger Herald

Independent Student Newspaper Since 1969

The Badger Herald

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UW experts: Romney safe bet to clinch Wis. victory

Romney_AP

With Wisconsin’s upcoming GOP presidential primary on April 3, Mitt Romney holds a double-digit lead over Rick Santorum, according to polling released Friday, leading experts to agree Romney is a safe bet to win the state.

A new statewide poll released by the Rasmussen Report shows 46 percent of likely Republican primary voters in Wisconsin favor Romney, while 33 percent prefer Santorum. Texas Rep. Ron Paul came in third with 8 percent, with Newt Gingrich closely behind in fourth place with 7 percent.

The poll surveyed 1,000 Wisconsin voters who said they are likely to vote in the Republican primary and was conducted on March 21.

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University of Wisconsin political science professor Kenneth Mayer said he believes Wisconsin may provide Romney the victory needed to secure his position as the Republican nominee.

“Going by the polls, Romney seems likely to win,” Mayer said. “This is part of what looks like the process of him definitively wrapping up the nomination.”

Mayer said the polls show Romney up by about 12 points but added that polling does not always pan out, and a lot can change in a few days.

As for Santorum’s campaign, Mayer said, it’s getting increasingly hard to envision Santorum as the Republican candidate. Ultimately, Mayer said it will become clear that he’s not doing the party any favors by staying in the race.

“The longer that this drags out for the Republicans, the more difficult it is going to be for Romney to recover from attacks made against him and to move forward and solidify a general election footing,” Mayer said.

Mayer added despite the high number of rural voters who would be more likely to support Santorum, the Republican Party is beginning to see the need to stand behind one candidate.

University of Wisconsin political science professor Donald Downs also said Romney would likely be the state’s winner.

“Supporters of Gov. Walker are more likely to vote for Romney,” Downs said. “There will be some that will vote for Santorum, but people think that Romney can win [in the general election], and I think they are right.”

Downs added that because Wisconsin holds an open primary where any registered voter can participate, this would help Romney because independents outside the party tend to favor Romney.

Both Mayer and Downs agree that Romney’s difficulty garnering the conservative vote will be his biggest obstacle to winning the Wisconsin primary. According to Mayer, Romney’s inability to persuade more conservative Republican voters has been the issue that has made the nomination process so lengthy.

Mayer also compared Wisconsin to Ohio, where Santorum lost only by a small margin, and Illinois, where Romney had a sound victory.

“Wisconsin is more like Illinois than Wisconsin is like Ohio,” Mayer said. “There are parts of the state that are very conservative, but Ohio is a significantly more conservative state, even among the Republicans.”

Mayer said if Wisconsin citizens vote as Illinois voters did, Romney is likely to see a double-digit victory on Tuesday.

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