When two-term presidents wrap up their tenure in the White House, it is customary for their vice president to pursue the presidency. In 1960, Richard Nixon ran. In 1988, it was George Bush’s turn. And in 2000, Al Gore vied for the presidency.
Four years from now, however, there will be no such run, as Vice President Dick Cheney, 63 and with a history of heart problems, has said he has no intentions of succeeding President George W. Bush.
Filling the void are a number of potential Republican presidential contenders.
Arizona Sen. John McCain, who lost to Bush in the 2000 GOP primaries, is widely seen as being among the top choices. The Grand Canyon State senator is well known for his work with Sen. Russ Feingold, D-Wisconsin, on the sweeping campaign-finance legislation passed into law in 2002. He enjoys broad support, even from some Democrats, and was just re-elected to the Senate by a wide margin.
But McCain’s maverick reputation may have strained some relationships in the Republican Party, Students for Bush chair Jessi Schober says. And he faces another tough opponent in age — the senator will be 72 in 2008.
“I’m afraid in 2008, I’m going to be 2008,” McCain joked during a stop in Madison in September.
Two New Yorkers, Gov. George Pataki and former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, join McCain near the top of the Republican shortlist.
Giuliani, who was one of Bush’s staunchest supporters in this year’s election, has been rumored to be in the running for a spot in Bush’s second-term Cabinet.
The fact Giuliani and Pataki have thrived in the Democratic bastion of New York proves their ability to reach out to moderates, University of Wisconsin political science professor Charles Franklin said.
“[Giuliani] and Pataki are two shoo-in candidates to be near the top if they want to run,” Franklin said.
Schober added Giuliani garners widespread support.
“Giuliani has a rapport with the entire country,” Schober added. “There’s a certain air about him and he has the ability to talk to everybody, be it the working class or with CEOs.”
Voters in the Republican primaries, however, might be leery of the pair’s moderate nature, especially Pataki, and opt for a more conservative candidate, Franklin said.
One such conservative would be Senate Majority Leader, Bill Frist. The Tennessee senator has been an ally of the Bush administration and presides over a growing Republican majority in the Senate. But despite his leadership position, Frist still suffers from a lack of name recognition nationally.
A dark-horse candidate would be California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.
The Constitution requires the president to be born in the United States. But if an amendment would ever successfully change that, now might be the time, Franklin said.
“Now it might have a good chance to be passed, because both parties have plausible non-native born candidates,” Franklin said, referring to Schwarzenegger and Canadian-born Democratic Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm.
Schober cautions that neither party should look too far into the future, because doing so may only set a prematurely determined candidate up for failure.
“I think that four years is such a long time — I want to focus on this presidency,” she said.