Two recent polls of Wisconsin voters predict divergent results in the upcoming election for president.
A Capitol Times/ Milwaukee Journal Sentinel poll shows Bush has 45 percent of responders’ support, Kerry has 33 percent and Nader has 4 percent. However, results may be conflicting. A St. Norbert College poll for Wisconsin Public Radio shows Kerry at 46 percent, Bush at 40 percent and Nader at 8 percent.
In regards to the polls, UW professor of Political Science Charles Franklin explained the results demonstrate the split-even cut in Wisconsin between the two candidates.
Due to the margin of error in polls, one would expect such differing results.
“There is a four-and-a-half- to five-point error in both polls. As just a purely technical thing we are looking at a 10-point spread,” Franklin said. “I would split the difference and say Bush has a slight lead. It’s probably pretty close. The right conclusion is that we’re undecided right now, and that’s probably the biggest finding.”
Don Eggert, chair of Students for Kerry, agreed many voters remain undecided and may be taking a break from politics for a while.
“Everyone knows that Wisconsin [results were] close, and it could be close again. The people supporting Sen. Kerry think it will be close,” Eggert said. “But it’s so early and people have a lot of other priorities right now. I’ll be interested in the numbers in October.”
Vice-chair of Students for Bush, Jessi Schober agreed it is too early to tell who the unsure voters will vote for. She said many of the events yet to come in the political race will determine which way fence-sitting voters will fall.
“I think one thing that’s going to be huge is the debates. To see the candidates going head to head…you will see people making a decision,” Schober said.
Franklin also noted at this point in the political game, the exact wording of questions used in polls could have a large impact on who is viewed to be in the lead.
“It matters if you give [voters] a list of candidates or a choice,” Franklin said. “If you have to rack your brain for the name of the candidates, it will be a disadvantage for Kerry since presumably everyone would know who Bush is at this point.”
Franklin said there could be differences in polling results, because results depend on which candidates were included in the poll and also because random errors may reflect poorly on the institutions conducting the polls.
“There is a question of who did you select for the poll. In one case they might be a sample of adults and the other might be likely voters,” Franklin said. “It could just be a pure fluke in the poll, but it’s also an embarrassment to the pollsters that they don’t agree.”
Schober said she thought the polls tell the public one important thing about the polling process as well.
“Voters have to remember not to believe everything they’re told by these polls. You just shouldn’t believe everything you see in the media,” Schober said.
