Wisconsin’s voters can expect a sense of importance this week, as presidential candidates and national media outlets clamor for their attention before the state’s primary Feb. 17.
Many believe Wisconsin matters more than ever as the state’s primary shapes up to possibly be the contest that decides if Kerry becomes the inevitable nominee, or if the race will burst wide open before Super Tuesday March 2.
With wins this week in Virginia and Tennessee, Sen. John Kerry (Mass.) continues to keep his campaign locomotive rolling with 12 wins in 14 contests. A loss next week for former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean or Sen. John Edwards (N.C.) could mean following Gen. Wesley Clark’s example of bowing out of the race.
Edwards and Dean are currently dashing around the state, hoping to win votes and secure a victory in a state that is a must-win. In recent days, Dean’s campaign strategy has focused almost entirely on Wisconsin.
“Dean’s stance in Wisconsin is not desperate, but a realistic evaluation of his standing in the race,” Shira Rosa, chair of Students for Dean, said. “He needs Wisconsin to win.”
This newfound position as a ‘do-or-die’ contest in the selection of a Democratic presidential nominee results from the state legislature’s decision to move the date of this year’s primary from the middle of March to Feb. 17.
Because of the nature of the nomination process, states with earlier primaries are considerably more important to the candidates, who hope to ride through the remaining primaries on a wave of momentum created by early victories and close finishes.
Early and important state primaries force national campaigns to focus more time and energy on state-specific issues, according to Charles Franklin, University of Wisconsin professor of political science.
However, he said, “No individual state can control all the issues,” adding that bringing national attention to the state is “good for the ego.”
Historically, decisive political contests are nothing new to Wisconsin. Wisconsin voters launched future president John F. Kennedy on his way to securing the Democratic nomination in 1960.
In the 1970s, other states grabbed some of the prestige and attention in a “wild push-and-shove scramble to move up their primaries,” Don Kettl, University of Wisconsin political science professor, said. “[But] national party leaders worked out a quiet compromise to ensure that Iowa and New Hampshire remained first.”
This year’s date-change again puts Wisconsin near the front during primary season, although regulations of the Democratic National Committee and the state of New Hampshire prohibited Wisconsin from grabbing elite status in the hierarchy of primary states. New Hampshire law schedules its primary one week prior to any other primary, regardless of date.
Don Eggert, co-chair of Students for Kerry, explained that though he believes Kerry will win Tuesday’s primary, it is more crucial of a win for other candidates.
“It is more important to other candidates to have a strong showing in Wisconsin. John Kerry has already proved himself,” Eggert said. “For the other campaigns it is more of a life-or-death situation.”
Although Dean and Edwards will likely stay in the race until March 2, without a Wisconsin win, both will have to face a Super Tuesday vote with Kerry seemingly running away with the contest.
