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Whoo-ah! Fall movie forecast — Al Pacino style

Is there a more sacred rite of passage in the field of entertainment journalism than the fall movie preview? The answer, of course, is no — unless you count getting to write the generic "Why is the box office down this year" or "Who is driving Paramount to hell in a hand basket this week?" columns, both of which have long been the lifeblood of any idea-starved entertainment writer.

Last summer, I handed out quotes from "Almost Famous" to preview the summer movie season. That seemed to go fairly well, so this year, I've decided to hand out quotes from Al Pacino characters to get us ready for the five most intriguing subplots that will surround this year's fall movie season.

Nothing says Oscar season like an Al Pacino character giving you advice, and since he doesn't have a movie coming out this fall, I took it upon myself to search for the most illuminating pieces of advice from his 30-plus year filmography. I was further motivated after reading the highly impressive new Lawrence Goddell book "Al Pacino: In Conversation with Lawrence Goddell," a book which, as the title cleverly hints at, contains transcripts of Pacino's illuminating interviews with UCLA professor Lawrence Goddell. Normally, I wouldn't recommend you pick up a star-approved book full of loosely organized interview transcripts, but this is the exception. Really interesting stuff. All right, on to the movies.

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"Don't ask me about my business, Kay." — "The Godfather" (1972)

For Paramount head Brad Grey, who, in only six months, has managed to make his predecessor, Sherry Lansing, seem calculating and brilliant by comparison. From getting caught up in the Anthony Pellicano scandal within a month of taking over the company, to his bizarre decision to chase away the studio's only consistent performer in Tom Cruise and his cash cow franchise. Now, somehow, Grey has managed to stumble like a child into a whole new set of problems.

Even though he's the CEO at Paramount, he is still listed as a producer of Warner Bros. Oscar tentpole "The Departed," which he worked to set up when he was still working with Brad Pitt at their production company Plan B. Now, there is a very legitimate chance that he could be standing up on a stage in March, accepting an Academy Award for another studio.

I can tell you this — there is no way Sumner Redstone is going to let this stand, especially since he apparently has decided that the best way to spend his semi-retirement is by acting like Harvey Keitel's character from "Pulp Fiction," cleaning up all the little messes his associates create. This is the guy who just a month ago launched a lightning-strike operation and executed Viacom president Tom Freston in his bed as he slept (or maybe just had him fired, depending on whom you believe). A month before that, he did his own wet-work and fired the biggest movie star on the planet and sent him away crying to Redskins owner and demonic elf Daniel Snyder. Redstone has to have something in the works to neutralize this situation. Some friendly advice to Grey: you might want to have your wife start up your car in the morning for the next couple months.

"A wiseguy never pays for his drinks." — "Donnie Brasco" (1997)

While I really wanted to give this to Robin Williams and Mel Gibson, I'll show some restraint. The best advice about being a man that Pacino's Lefty Doyle has to offer goes to the uber-masculine duo of Ridley Scott and Russell Crowe for their curious decision to reunite for the first time since "Gladiator" to make "A Good Year," which has rightly been called a Y-chromosome remake of "Under The Tuscan Sun." (Remember that one? I wouldn't have either, except for the fact it's on HBO about six times a day.) Look, the world needs jerks. This is why Russell Crowe is so important to us. He's the last true misanthrope in a town full of do-gooders. We want to dislike Russell Crowe. Any movie that actively tries to make us like him is a tactical mistake. And this movie looks like a big mistake.

"It's who I am, Gail, it's what I am. Right or wrong, I can't change that." — "Carlito's Way" (1993)

After the inevitable heartfelt interview with Generic Morning Newswoman, Mel Gibson and Disney still have to deal with the fact they've got "Apocalypto" coming out, his latest movie in a language nobody understands. And it doesn't have a built-in audience the way "The Passion of the Christ" did. Even if he hadn't given into his Smirnoff-chugging, Israelite-hating inner demons, this one was looking to be in trouble.

All of this being said, I would love to see Gibson quote this line during his first pre-rehab interview. I mean, if "Apocalypto" is going down anyway, why not do so in a blaze of glory? You'll still be up like, $600 million on your whole endeavor into dead-language-based cinema, so why the hell not?

"Touch me again, I'll kill you, you little sonofabitch! I touch you. Understand?" — “Scent of a Woman” (1992)

Fall movie season means somebody is going to resurrect his or her career and get an Oscar nomination — it happens ever year like clockwork, like Alex Rodriguez choking in a playoff series. My choice this year is Val Kilmer for "DéjàVu." Maybe an Oscar nomination is a little ambitious, considering he is playing support in a movie that looks like a remake of "Timecop," but the movie does look moderately awesome, and Kilmer's been headed back on the right track for a few years now with solid work in "Spartan" and "Kiss, Kiss, Bang Bang." Plus, he's also managed to pull an Alec Baldwin and convince everyone who once thought of him as a jerk that he is, in actuality, only eccentric. This quote just sounds like something he would have said at some point during the '90s. By the way, for everyone who wants to hear the definitive crazy Val Kilmer story, I urge you to check out Chuck Klosterman's new book where he details a visit to Kilmer's New Mexico ranch. I don't want to ruin anything, but suffice it to say, the visit culminates with Kilmer giving Klosterman a poem.

"If it's between you, and some poor bastard whose wife you're about to turn into a widow, brother, you are going down." — "Heat" (1995)

The coolest line from the De Niro and Pacino showdown in "Heat" goes to De Niro himself, who may very well win a Best Director Oscar over his friend and frequent collaborator Martin Scorsese. Scorsese has lost twice before to actors turned directors (in 1980 Robert Redford won for "Ordinary People" and in 1990 Kevin Costner won for — wait for it — "Dances With Wolves"). Now, it looks like De Niro and his CIA epic "The Good Shepherd" is going to be Scorsese's biggest stumbling block in picking up that elusive first Oscar.

Still, you're kidding yourself if you think De Niro is going to roll over for Scorsese. First of all, if Scorsese was so important to him, De Niro wouldn't have dropped out of "The Departed" in order to make "The Good Shepherd." (He was supposed to play the Martin Sheen role.) Secondly, what better way for De Niro to answer the critics who have been slamming his artistic integrity over the last couple of years than by winning best director? If anything, this will be fun for the inevitable Larry King interview two nights before the Oscars where Scorsese will ramble on for hours like an old man on a park bench about how much he loves De Niro, and then they bring on De Niro via phone and all he says is "Umm … Martin … he's a good friend. Good friend. Good director … good director," followed by 10 minutes of awkward silence and throat-clearing on Bobby D's end of the phone. De Niro getting interviewed never fails to crack me up.

"The inches we need are everywhere around us. They're in every break of the game, every minute, every second. On this team, we fight for that inch. On this team, we tear ourselves and everyone else around us to pieces for that inch … because we know, when we add up all those inches, that's gonna make the fucking difference between winning and losing!" — "Any Given Sunday" (1999)

This one's for the Weinstein Brothers, who this winter are going to be launching their first Oscar campaign at their new company. Personally, I could see Harvey Weinstein delivering this speech to a group of terrified staffers. And really, it perfectly illustrates the Weinstein approach to winning Oscars. Scrap for everything, and maybe you'll hit the home run. And they need a good year — since leaving Miramax, things have ranged between horrible and apocalyptic for the brothers Weinstein. Their golden goose this year is going to be Renee Zellwegger for her work in "Miss Potter," which should be great because, really, who doesn't like Renee Zellwegger? Oh, wait, everybody doesn't like Renee Zellwegger. Face it, if your name isn't Helen Mirren, you're not winning Best Actress this year. You can take that to the bank.

Ray Gustini is a sophomore majoring in English and journalism. Want to talk movies with him? E-mail him at [email protected].

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