“The Republican-controlled Congress put off dealing with the debt ceiling before adjourning in October, preferring not to force members to vote on the politically sensitive issue of adding to the national debt before the November elections.”

Well, obviously.

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Historically, second-term presidents tend to take a more restrained approach, as they begin to care about their legacy. Bush’s first term, however, was marked by ambitious foreign and domestic agendas that drove wedges through the electorate (as we saw last night). And Bush can now count on a decisive majority in the Senate as well as the House for support in pursuing his legislateive goals. And finally, Bush, in his acceptance announcements, has claimed that a “broad mandate” has been given to him by America, the half of it that voted for Kerry notwithstanding. It will be interesting, to say the least, to see which path Bush chooses in the next four years.

It’s unlikely that Bush will pursue a constitutional amendment on gay marriage. The current piecemeal approach of banning gay marriage on a state by state basis through ballot initiatives met with a great deal of success last night, and support for state legislative attempts to ban is also running strong. It’s unlikely that Bush would manage to summon sufficient support (2/3 of both houses of Congress, or 3/4 of state conventions) to effect a ban on gay marriage at the federal level.

Update: Nevermind.

The biggest issue on everybody’s mind right now is the Supreme Court. C.J. Rehnquist is battling thyroid cancer, and he’s not the only justice who’ll likely have to quit soon for health reasons. Part of Bush’s message was a call for restrictions on women’s rights to abortion, couched in the language “values” and “faith”. If Bush is able to nominate a sizeable chunk of new justices, it will give rise to a Court that may very well be receptive to overturning Roe v. Wade or at the very least revisiting the issues raised in it. In that case, the fate of Roe—and its effects on the Republican coalition—will be the defining narrative of Bush’s second term.

News is that he has called President Bush to concede and will do so before the American public within the hour. He very well could have drawn this election out, using CNN’s “too-close-to-call” proclamation as ammo to turn Ohio into the Florida of 2004. But such would only serve to more bitterly divide the nation, and a quick concession will help the healing begin at once.

The Democratic Party has a lot of issues to resolve in the coming days and months. Their leader in the Senate has been sent packing, the popular vote indicates that Bush will set an all-time record, eclipsing Reagan’s tally from 1984. But the best way for the Democrats to start that rebuilding process is to put this election behind them, and Mr. Kerry truly does the nation a favor by not delaying that task.

It is in America’s best interest to have fierce opposition and quality debate on both sides of all issues. Ergo, a strong Democratic Party is essential. And John Kerry has proven today that he has that essential interest of America at heart.

Popular vote: Kerry 54% Bush 46%

Damn near a tie in Ohio and Florida.

WI goes to Kerry 51% or closer.

MN and MI stay Democrat, so does Pennsylvania.

Ohio ends up in Republican hands after bitter fight, FL in the Democrat camp (they will not lose that state this time around).

This is fun! Not only will you surely be wrong, but you get to guess! Please, post comments, I would love to hear other people’s views.

This race will come down to Ohio and Florida. Both started out as pink-to-light-red for Bush, then trended toward Kerry late in the game, and now it’s anybody’s guess as to which way they’ll go. There are plausible electoral vote scenarios for either candidate winning by taking at least one of these two, but if either candidate takes both states then he’s got it in the bag. Florida is more important to Kerry—if Kerry takes Ohio but loses Florida, he’ll have a much rougher time of it. Bush could plausibly win with either state, but Florida with its 27 EVs is the sweeter plum.

Both campaigns know the critical value of these states, and have traded bitter accusations about each others’ attempts to GOTV. Judging by the recent legal action regarding voter intimidation in OH and voter fraud in FL, I’d say the Bush camp’s fingers are stickier.

Look for a 1-2 point margin in Kerry’s favor in the popular vote.

Final prediction: Lawyers. Everywhere.

Both Kerry and Bush were quick—and rightly so—to condemn bin Laden and his message, dismissing it as a terrorist threat which America would not bow down to. And yet, bin Laden’s tape was no mere threat. By having the message broadcast right before the election, bin Laden seeks to place himself once again on the world stage, reminding all observers that he is a shaper of world events and a force to be reckoned with. (Military analyst Daniel Benjamin argues that his message is directed more at Muslims worldwide than to the US, thereby hoping to reinforce his self-styled role as a leader of international Islam and attracting more followers to the cause of jihad.)

That bin Laden has been able to do this speaks to the fact that his is still very much alive and uncaptured. And yet the Bush camp is claiming this as a boon to Bush’s campaign, arguing that anything that puts terror in the minds of voters will remind them that Bush is the better candidate to protect America. Some (such as FOXNews’ Neil Cavuto) have even argued that bin Laden is trying to help Kerry get elected.

This form of thinking is simply obtuse. It is hardly to Bush’s credit that bin Laden is still free and able to broadcast messages of terror three years after Bush committed himself to tracking him down and capturing him. And if bin Laden prefers any candidate, it’s Bush, not Kerry. The wingnuts have been trying to push the “terrorists-love-Kerrry” conceit for a while, but it’s not sticking. Bush is far more valuable to bin Laden. He is a polarizing figure in the Muslim world and his pursuit of a radical foreign policy in the execution of the “war on terror” only provides further justification—in the minds of radicals like bin Laden—for a militant Islamic crusade against the West.

The fact that the Bush camp claims that the bin Laden message will boost his campaign points to the fundamental ineptitude and cynicism of the Administration. It’s taken three years, and we’re no closer to capturing bin Laden. Not that we’re trying very hard. The fact that Bush could point to this tape as proof that America needs his continued leadership highlights Bush’s use of an interminable War on Terror as a political trump card—so long as the terrorists are out there, we need to delegate ever-increasing power to the President to track them down.

Bush is not an effective leader when it comes to terror. He presided over one of the greatest intelligence failures in US history and failed to prevent an attack that claimed more than 3,000 lives. He has tried to assume the mantle of a Great Leader simply by shrouding himself in the dust of masonry and corpses at Ground Zero. This latest message from a hale and healthy Osama bin Laden only further illustrates his ineffectiveness.

Ah, but the catch is, most of the addresses do exist, or they’re simple data entry errors. I love it, massive voter fraud by Democrats is…transposed address numbers.

Or if you can’t disqualify them, lie to their faces. This particular bit of ridiculous propaganda being floated around downtown Milwaukee is reprehensible.

Now the GOP refutes they have anything to do with this loathsome flyer, but they have said that this group, the Milwaukee Black Voters League, will be helping run their election day challenges.

So it’s clear. The GOP cheats, lies and steals and then points the finger at Democrats as playing dirty pool.

It’s clear who has their hands dirty in this election, and it isn’t the Democrats.

A few points that should be emphasized:

1. If you’re in line before 8:00PM, you have the right to vote and cannot be turned away.

2. If you are eligible but not registered, you may register at the polls by signing a certification form and either providing proof of residence (such as a recent item of mail) or having another voter vouch for you.

3. If you have moved to Wisconsin within ten days of the election, you have the right to vote for President and Vice-President.

4. If you make a mistake on your ballot, you may request up to three replacements.

Be assertive, and if you encounter any problems call the Election Protection hotline at 1-866-OUR-VOTE.

[update] “Madison Assistant Fire Chief Carl Saxe told AFP that at least 80,000 people were in the main crowd, while, at least 20,000 more were trying to get in on sidestreets, making the rally the biggest event in Madison’s history.”

The survey indicated violence accounted for most of the extra deaths seen since the invasion, and air strikes from coalition forces caused most of the violent deaths, the researchers wrote in the British-based journal.

The most common causes of death before the invasion of Iraq were heart attacks, strokes and other chronic diseases. However, after the invasion, violence was recorded as the primary cause of death and was mainly attributed to coalition forces — with about 95 percent of those deaths caused by bombs or fire from helicopter gunships

Also available on Yahoo!.

UPDATE:

U.S. District Court Judge Susan Dlott has ended a Republican-led challenge to the eligibility of 35,000 voters (largely minorities) in Ohio.