November 3
Bush: I won, now pay up
President Bush to ask Congress to raise the federal government's debt ceiling: "The Republican-controlled Congress put off dealing with the debt ceiling before adjourning in October, preferring not to force members to vote on the politically sensitive issue of adding to the national debt before the November elections." Well, obviously. Thanks for reading the Badger Herald Election Weblog.There are currently 1 comments. Want to leave one?
A real mandate (barely)
Bush managed to capture not only the winning share of electoral votes without a Floridesque fiasco (it's unlikely the Democrats will mount any challenges of the Ohio vote count or the status of the provisional ballots), but he's the first president since his dad (in '88) to take a majority of the popular vote. Unlike his last term, Bush now has some kind of electoral mandate, however narrow (as of this post, he only garnered 1 point above 50%). What will he do with it? Historically, second-term presidents tend to take a more restrained approach, as they begin to care about their legacy. Bush's first term, however, was marked by ambitious foreign and domestic agendas that drove wedges through the electorate (as we saw last night). And Bush can now count on a decisive majority in the Senate as well as the House for support in pursuing his legislateive goals. And finally, Bush, in his acceptance announcements, has claimed that a "broad mandate" has been given to him by America, the half of it that voted for Kerry notwithstanding. It will be interesting, to say the least, to see which path Bush chooses in the next four years. It's unlikely that Bush will pursue a constitutional amendment on gay marriage. The current piecemeal approach of banning gay marriage on a state by state basis through ballot initiatives met with a great deal of success last night, and support for state legislative attempts to ban is also running strong. It's unlikely that Bush would manage to summon sufficient support (2/3 of both houses of Congress, or 3/4 of state conventions) to effect a ban on gay marriage at the federal level. Update: Nevermind. The biggest issue on everybody's mind right now is the Supreme Court. C.J. Rehnquist is battling thyroid cancer, and he's not the only justice who'll likely have to quit soon for health reasons. Part of Bush's message was a call for restrictions on women's rights to abortion, couched in the language "values" and "faith". If Bush is able to nominate a sizeable chunk of new justices, it will give rise to a Court that may very well be receptive to overturning Roe v. Wade or at the very least revisiting the issues raised in it. In that case, the fate of Roe--and its effects on the Republican coalition--will be the defining narrative of Bush's second term.There are currently 3 comments. Want to leave one?
Kudos to Kerry
After a campaign that has been largely marked by incivility, dirty tricks and loophole campaigning, credit is due to John Kerry for having America's best interests at heart. News is that he has called President Bush to concede and will do so before the American public within the hour. He very well could have drawn this election out, using CNN's "too-close-to-call" proclamation as ammo to turn Ohio into the Florida of 2004. But such would only serve to more bitterly divide the nation, and a quick concession will help the healing begin at once. The Democratic Party has a lot of issues to resolve in the coming days and months. Their leader in the Senate has been sent packing, the popular vote indicates that Bush will set an all-time record, eclipsing Reagan's tally from 1984. But the best way for the Democrats to start that rebuilding process is to put this election behind them, and Mr. Kerry truly does the nation a favor by not delaying that task. It is in America's best interest to have fierce opposition and quality debate on both sides of all issues. Ergo, a strong Democratic Party is essential. And John Kerry has proven today that he has that essential interest of America at heart.There are currently 1 comments. Want to leave one?
November 1
Am I the Only Wild-eyed Optimist Left?
Well, anyone want to have a little fun? How about a prediction contest? Anyone willing to make one? Popular vote: Kerry 54% Bush 46% Damn near a tie in Ohio and Florida. WI goes to Kerry 51% or closer. MN and MI stay Democrat, so does Pennsylvania. Ohio ends up in Republican hands after bitter fight, FL in the Democrat camp (they will not lose that state this time around). This is fun! Not only will you surely be wrong, but you get to guess! Please, post comments, I would love to hear other people's views.There are currently 5 comments. Want to leave one?
Final predictions
If you want polling wonkery, I suggest RealClear Politics, Slate's Election Scorecard, or Prof. Sam Wang of Princeton's Electoral College Meta-Analysis. My own intuitions: This race will come down to Ohio and Florida. Both started out as pink-to-light-red for Bush, then trended toward Kerry late in the game, and now it's anybody's guess as to which way they'll go. There are plausible electoral vote scenarios for either candidate winning by taking at least one of these two, but if either candidate takes both states then he's got it in the bag. Florida is more important to Kerry--if Kerry takes Ohio but loses Florida, he'll have a much rougher time of it. Bush could plausibly win with either state, but Florida with its 27 EVs is the sweeter plum. Both campaigns know the critical value of these states, and have traded bitter accusations about each others' attempts to GOTV. Judging by the recent legal action regarding voter intimidation in OH and voter fraud in FL, I'd say the Bush camp's fingers are stickier. Look for a 1-2 point margin in Kerry's favor in the popular vote. Final prediction: Lawyers. Everywhere.There are currently 0 comments. Want to leave one?
