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Gridiron: BCS top 2 intact; who’s No. 3?

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Also by Derek Zetlin:

Gridiron: BCS top 2 intact; who's No. 3? (November 29, 2007)
Cinderellas fly under national radar (November 1, 2007)
GRIDIRON - No sure bet this year in Heisman race (October 25, 2007)
GRIDIRON: Senior quarterbacks show potential (October 18, 2007)
USC loss keeps upset train rolling (October 11, 2007)

by Derek Zetlin

Thursday, November 29, 2007

Thirteen weeks of the 2007 college football season have passed; now only one remains. Week 14 will determine conference champions and shore up the BCS picture. Following an LSU triple-overtime loss to Arkansas last Saturday, the BCS championship — after weeks of chaos and controversy — has squared itself up, with a clear-cut No. 1 and No. 2: Missouri and West Virginia.

Or has it?

It’s true, few will argue the Tigers and Mountaineers deserve the top two spots. But what happens if either team loses this Saturday? Missouri takes on Oklahoma — the only team to beat it this season — and West Virginia battles Pittsburgh. Should either team lose, who is poised to take its spot to play for the title? Let's take a look at the candidates:

No. 3 Ohio State (11-1)

Key Wins: at Purdue, at Penn State, Wisconsin, at Michigan

Key Loss: Illinois

The Buckeyes put up an impressive résumé a sub-par Big Ten this season. All four of their key wins listed above occurred when each of those teams were ranked in the AP Top 25. A loss at home against Illinois hurts, but because of the Illini's success this season, it wasn't devastating.

The lack of a Big Ten Championship game hurts the Buckeyes in terms of strength of schedule. However, it would only be a rematch against Michigan, a team Ohio State beat just two weeks ago in the Big House. The Bucks didn't play anyone worth noting out of conference, but four wins against ranked opponents speaks for itself. Should either Missouri or West Virginia lose Saturday, Ohio State will be in position to play for the national title again this year.

No. 6 Virginia Tech (10-2)

Key Wins: at Clemson, at Virginia

Key Losses: at LSU, Boston College

Because Miami and Florida State played as poorly as they did this season, the ACC was mediocre at best when compared to the other powerhouse conferences. However, while Ohio State was beating up on Akron in Week 2, the Hokies were traveling to Baton Rouge to take on then-No. 2 LSU, which begs the question: Should Virginia Tech be penalized for a loss against a top-tier team, when it could have scheduled a game against Kent State (another Ohio State opponent)? Had the Hokies done that, they'd be sitting pretty in the BCS standings, and a win Saturday would guarantee them a spot in the title game. Now they're on the outside looking in, staring the Eagles in the face for the ACC Championship and an automatic BCS entrance. While the Hokies take on Heisman hopeful Matt Ryan and BC, the Buckeyes will be sitting in their living rooms watching, rooting for the Eagles, because should the Hokies win convincingly, they could make a case for leapfrogging No. 3 Ohio State.

No. 5 Kansas (11-1)

Key Win: at Kansas State

Key Loss: Missouri

A one-loss season in the Big 12 is always impressive. But if there's a way to make it as unimpressive as possible, the Jayhawks did it this year. KU avoided Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech on its schedule this season, making schedule that much weaker. Its scenario is very similar to Wisconsin's last season, when the Badgers finished 11-1 without playing Ohio State or beating a ranked opponent. Kansas did beat Kansas State on the road when the Wildcats were ranked No. 24, but that's it; its four non-conference games were nothing to brag about. The Jayhawks' chance to prove to the nation that they are for real escaped them last Saturday night when Missouri dismantled them on national television. Kansas had a miracle season and should play in a BCS bowl, but there's no way they can surpass Ohio State (or Virginia Tech, should they beat BC) as the next in line, without winning its own division and earning a spot in the Big 12 Championship game.

No. 7 LSU (10-2) and No. 9 Oklahoma (10-2)

Both teams will be playing in their respective conference championship games Saturday, but with two losses each, neither has a realistic chance at landing a spot in the national championship game. A win for either team will give them an automatic bid to a BCS bowl game, but because Ohio State's season is over with just one loss, neither team deserves to pass the Bucks with a win Saturday.

No. 12 Hawaii (11-0)

Not even an undefeated season is good enough for the Warriors to play for the national championship just based on the fact that the WAC is so weak. In the future, Hawaii will have to play at least two top-notch non-conference games if it wants to qualify to play for the national title. That said, should Colt Brennan and company get by Washington Saturday, they should earn an at-large bid into a BCS bowl game; if Boise State can beat Oklahoma in last year's Fiesta Bowl, Hawaii could do some damage against a legitimate opponent as well.

Others that fell victim to tough non-conference schedules:

No. 14 Tennessee (9-3)

With the SEC as competitive as it is, why on earth would the Vols schedule an opening game at California? Fortunately for UT, they were able to salvage the SEC East title, meaning a win against LSU will give them an automatic BCS bid. However, a fourth loss will hurt them in terms of a non-BCS bowl bid. Considering its conference schedule, Tennessee's risk vastly outweighed the reward when scheduling a game against Cal.

No. 15 Illinois (9-3)

Because the Big Ten is now wide open below Ohio State, the Illini must be kicking themselves for scheduling a Week 1 matchup against Missouri. Granted, no one knew the Tigers would be this good this season, but at 10-2 Illinois would have a Rose Bowl appearance all but locked up should either Missouri or West Virginia fall Saturday. There's still an outside chance that they will play in Pasadena come January. However, since the Rose Bowl is no longer exclusively Big Ten versus Pac-10, nothing is certain.

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Anonymous (November 29, 2007 @ 4:56pm):

Hawaii probably isn't a top-tier team, but it seems as though the BCS teams want to keep it that way. The Warriors had Mich. St. booked to go to Hawaii this year, they backed out having to pay $250K to do so. Michgan was approached about playing their opening game against Hawaii, they chose App. St. instead (that really helped them, huh). USC was also given the opportunity to play Hawaii, either at home or on the road. They too wanted nothing to do the Warrior's prolific passing game and a chance at an embarrasing out of conference loss. Hawaii probably isn't #1, but nobody wants to give them that opportunity either.

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