SPORTS
Bubble teams hoping not to pop
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by Michael Poppy
Thursday, March 2, 2006
With March now here, the NCAA tournament bracket has become a little more predictable.
Some teams are locks, some are NIT-bound or out of postseason play completely, and every other team is on the infamous bubble, hoping it won't be popped before selection time.
Come selection time, there's always the debate nationwide of how many bids each conference will receive and who is the most deserving.
While the only certain thing come selection time are the automatic bids for every conference and that Penn will probably be the first team in, considering the Ivy League is the only conference without a tournament, Hoops America will attempt to make the tournament brackets a little more clear.
ACC
Locks: Boston College, Duke, N.C. State, North Carolina
Out: Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Clemson
On the Bubble: Maryland, Florida State, Virginia, Miami
The ACC's bubble teams have a slim chance of getting into the tournament with the down year it's having — at least compared to years in the past. Florida State may be in the best position after a big win over Maryland, and games against Duke and North Carolina to end its schedule. The conference tournament will be huge for these teams trying to drift into the tourney on a bubble.
Big East
Locks: Connecticut, Villanova, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Georgetown, Marquette
Out: South Florida, DePaul, Rutgers, Providence, Louisville, St. John's, Notre Dame
On the Bubble: Syracuse, Cincinnati, Seton Hall
Now with 16 teams, the Big East's NCAA tournament selection situation will be interesting. Sure, the committee says it doesn't select the teams conference by conference, but, regardless, how many bids the Big East receives will be a hot topic. Syracuse and Cincinnati will probably sneak in, giving the conference eight teams. However, Notre Dame's case is interesting. Even though the Fighting Irish are near the bottom of the standing, they have been in every game and only lost each by a slim margin. If they make some noise in the Big East tournament, Notre Dame could seemingly make a case to possibly sneak in as a low seed.
Big Ten
Locks: Michigan State, Ohio State, Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin
Out: Purdue, Northwestern, Penn State
On the Bubble: Michigan, Indiana, Minnesota
With a big win over Michigan State this past weekend, Indiana helped its tournament hopes the most. Throughout the disappointing losses and Mike Davis controversy this season, the Hoosiers find themselves back in the tournament mix. As for the other teams, Michigan most likely is in while you can't spell "Minnesota" without "N-I-T."
Big XII
Locks: Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma
Out: Baylor, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Kansas State
On the Bubble: Colorado, Texas A&M, Nebraska
Texas A&M and Nebraska's tournament resumes aren't looking too strong, and Colorado's bubble is close to being popped after a huge loss to Nebraska and tough games at Kansas and Iowa State left on the schedule.
Pac-10
Locks: UCLA, Washington
Out: Oregon State, Arizona State, Washington State, Oregon, USC, Stanford
On the Bubble: Arizona, California
The Pac-10 is maybe the most disappointing conference by far this season. UCLA has really taken advantage of Stanford and Arizona's mishaps and is the only respectable tournament team from this conference. Washington hasn't exactly been stellar, but Brandon Roy has been able to put the Huskies on his back thus far. Closing out the season at home, Arizona should be able to assure itself a tournament spot, and Cal will probably make it as well, provided they pick up a win or two in the Pac-10 tournament.
Southeastern Conference
Locks: Florida, LSU, Tennessee
Out: Georgia, South Carolina, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Auburn
On the Bubble: Kentucky, Alabama, Arkansas, Vanderbilt
The SEC has had a so-so year this season. Tennessee and LSU have really come through behind some young players, but Florida has fallen as of late after starting the season at 17-0. It appears as if Kentucky will be in the tournament, and Arkansas has a slight edge on Alabama after coming back from 18 to beat the Crimson Tide last week. As for Vanderbilt, the Commodores really need to make some noise in the SEC tournament to have a shot.
Conference USA
Locks: Memphis
Out: Central Florida, Rice, Tulsa, Tulane, SMU, Marshall, Southern Miss, East Carolina
On the Bubble: UAB, Houston, UTEP
Conference USA took a big hit by losing Louisville, Cincinnati, DePaul and Marquette to the Big East, but even those four teams aren't exactly having stellar seasons. Memphis is a lock, no doubt, and will most likely be one of the No. 1 seeds. Houston has a good shot of receiving a tournament bid with wins over then-No. 25 LSU and No. 13 Arizona. UAB and UTEP might be able to sneak in, but neither have a big win or an outstanding season to warrant a solid chance.
At-large teams
Locks: Gonzaga, George Washington, Wichita State, George Mason
On the Bubble: Nevada, UW-Milwaukee, Bucknell, the whole Missouri Valley Conference, among others
The locks from the non-major conferences are pretty obvious, and Nevada is probably a good bet to be in, as well. UW-Milwaukee should be in, but if it doesn't win the Horizon League, it could get a little questionable. How many teams the Missouri Valley Conference gets in the tournament will be something to watch for — the conference may get up to five with Wichita State for sure and Missouri State, Creighton, Southern Illinois and Northern Iowa all with good chances. That would be potentially more teams than the ACC, Pac-10, Big XII and Conference USA each have.
