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Kentucky Derby preview
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Friday, May 3, 2002
Early May is upon us once again. To UW students, that usually means afternoons at the Terrace, upcoming finals and graduation. To fans of the sporting world, though, the first Saturday in May means something else: The Kentucky Derby.
Thoroughbred racing’s showcase event will run for the 128th time on Saturday afternoon at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky. Unlike the past couple of years where there has been a clear-cut favorite, the only certainty for this year’s Run For the Roses is that nothing is certain.
With Point Given last year and Fusiachi Pegasus in 2000, there were “superhorses” that dominated the media coverage. The 2002 field lacks that kind of star power.
Harlan’s Holiday, a horse that hasn’t finished worse than second in 10 career starts, is the morning line favorite at 9-2. That makes him one of the highest-priced favorites in Derby history.
Part of the reason is because the field will include 20 betting interests. In the past, when more then 14 horses were entered in the Derby, some of the lesser contenders were grouped together onto one entry. But a recent Kentucky racing ruling changed that, and this year all 20 horses will be separate betting entities.
There hasn’t been a 20-horse starting field in the Kentucky Derby since 1984. In 1996 and 1999, 20 horses were entered, but not all of them started.
There were a few surprises earlier this week in Louisville. Trainer Bob Baffert, who it appeared would not have a Derby starter this year, ended up with not one but two. Earlier in April, Baffert had taken over as the trainer for contender Derby contender War Emblem and then stunned most of the horse-racing world by entering Danthebluegrassman at the last minute before the post position draw Wednesday.
With 20 entrants and no clear-cut favorite, this year’s Kentucky Derby has all the makings of a classic event. Here is a look at some of the top contenders:
Harlan’s Holiday
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Jockey: Edgar Prado
Odds: 9-2
This horse has done just about everything he can to be the Derby favorite. Back-to-back wins in Keeneland’s Blue Grass Stakes and the Florida Derby at Gulfstream — two of the top Kentucky Derby prep races — have put him in the spotlight. The knock on him is that his times for those races haven’t been very fast; it remains to be seen how much of a factor that will be. Also, with 10 career starts, he is much more experienced than most of the field. However, the Derby favorite has only won once since 1979.
Came Home
Trainer: Paco Gonzalez
Jockey: Chris McCarron
Odds: 5-1
Pundits continue to say that Came Home doesn’t have the pedigree to go the mile and a quarter of the Derby, but every time he is challenged, he steps up. Came Home is unbeaten as a 3-year-old, coming home the victor in the three big prep races at Santa Anita, Calif., and has only lost once in his career. But like Harlan’s Holiday, his times have been under scrutiny. This could be the race that Came Home finally runs out of gas.
Buddha
Trainer: H. James Bond
Jockey: Pat Day
Odds: 5-1
While Bond has had a successful career as a trainer, this will be his first Derby starter. Buddha is coming off a thrilling victory over Medaglia D’Oro in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct and has also won all three of his starts over seven furlongs (seven-eighths of a mile). The last two winners of the Wood, Monarchos and Fusiachi Pegasus, went on to win the Derby. With champion jockey Pat Day riding, Buddha presents a lot of upside.
Johannesburg
Trainer: Aidan P. O’Brien
Jockey: Gary Stevens
Odds: 6-1
Jonannesburg has taken a peculiar path to Kentucky. His career began by winning all seven of his starts as a 2-year-old, including the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile, which earned him the title of champion 2-year-old in both the United States and Europe. But then he returned to Europe and raced only once, losing by a head to a 4-year-old filly in a seven-furlong turf race. His path was similar to that of Arazi, the 1991 Kentucky Derby favorite who fizzled badly. His training methods raise a lot of questions that won’t be answered until Saturday.
Medaglia D’Oro
Trainer: Bobby Frankel
Jockey: Laffit Pincay Jr.
Odds: 6-1
A lightly raced horse, Medaglia D’Oro has only four starts in his career. He was a surprise winner in the San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita and followed that up with his close second-place finish in the Wood Memorial. He likes to be close to the front, so breaking from the nine hole won’t hurt his cause.
Essence of Dubai
Trainer: Saeed bin Suroor
Jockey: David Flores
Odds: 15-1
Another horse with questionable training methods. After a successful 2-year-old campaign in the United States, Essence of Dubai was sent to Dubai by his owners, Godolphin Stables, where he remained until April. He won both of his races in Dubai, albeit against weaker competition than his American-trained peers. His does have some things going for him. He is the only horse in the field who has raced 10 furlongs, and his bloodlines are impeccable. His sire, Pulpit, fought through injuries to be the morning line favorite in the 1997 Kentucky Derby (he placed fourth) before retiring due to injury. Pulpit’s sire was A.P. Indy, a late scratch as the favorite in the 1992 Kentucky Derby who would go on to win the Belmont Stakes and the Breeder’s Cup Classic. And A.P. Indy was sired by 1977 Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew, so the potential is certainly there.
Perfect Drift
Trainer: Murray Johnson
Jockey: Eddie Delahoussaye
Odds: 15-1
Perfect Drift hasn’t raced since winning the Spiral Stakes at Turfway. He has three wins and three seconds in six career starts. Delahoussaye is perfect on Perfect Drift after riding him for the first time in the Spiral Stakes. He has been improving with every start and could be a dark-horse contender Saturday.
Race Outlook: In a race with 20 horses, anything can happen. With the annual struggles of the favorite, it is better to look for value. While Godolphin Stables have had very little success in its attempts to win the Derby over the past few years, one simply cannot ignore the bloodlines of Essence of Dubai. At 15-1, he’s the pick to wear the roses.
