Opinion: Column
Same old strategies won’t save republicanism
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Also by Gerald Cox:
- Options poor in county race (April 6, 2009)
- AIG sparks Congress' ignorance (March 22, 2009)
- Same old strategies won't save republicanism (March 2, 2009)
- Black leaders won't let America's racist heritage go (February 23, 2009)
- ASM constitution will not succeed without students (February 19, 2009)
If the woman or man you love rebuffs you several times in spectacular fashion and explains to you in exhaustive detail just what it is he or she disdains, do you double down on those features? If the graduate school you have spent the last four years preparing for rejects your application but recommends that a few years of job experience might make you a better candidate, do you work at getting the experience, or do you fire off another application, this time emphasizing the very lack of experience they decried? If you’re a political party whose spectacular electoral defeats have sent a clear message that there is little tolerance for your ideology, do you double down on your failed ideology?
If you’re the Republican Party, the answer is yes.
The future of the Republican Party has been on display for the past week. And, my, what disservice to America it will be.
Tuesday night was cast as a “coming out party” for Republican Louisiana Governor and probable 2012 presidential candidate Bobby Jindal. His response to President Obama’s address to congress was supposed to be a poignant and rousing repudiation of the Big Government ideology of the Obama administration. Instead, the so-called future of the Republican Party came across as some highly laughable cross between Sesame Street’s Big Bird and my kindergarten teacher. Further, the irony that a man whose most important and populous city — New Orleans — is currently being rebuilt by the federal government would so anachronistically decry the role that President Obama has put the federal government into was much too apparent.
I couldn’t help but think: If this is the future of the Republican Party, bring back Sarah Palin. At least she can give a rousing speech, and make me laugh instead of cringe in embarrassment. At least she acts like a leader, not a babysitter.
I admit to a measure of excitement about Gov. Jindal that may be the source of my considerable disappointment. Not only did he sound like a man who cannot lead a nation in the face of unprecedented challenge, his ideas defied reality and embraced conservative ideas over pragmatism and solutions.
Republicans have a powerful message when they remind the nation of the potency and reward inherent in American free market enterprise. An enabled and robust private sector is the key to America’s considerable economic standing. But the free market lies in ruins. Republicans rage against its rebuilding, insisting its rubble will suffice.
Even more emblematic of the Republican Party’s issues was this weekend’s Conservative Political Action Committee. CPAC boasted great conservative and Republican minds like Mitt “Mittens” Romney, Mike “I’m okay with Confederate flags” Huckabee, and Rush “Doesn’t require a nickname, he’s just that bad of a human being” Limbaugh. It also hosted a few Republicans I respect for their ability to see the political middle, like Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, and personal favorites like Wisconsin’s own Rep. Paul Ryan. In sum, however, the conference was a sad and discouraging microcosm for the macrocosm that is the ideology of the Republican Party.
The conference, whose agenda boasted such events as “Al Franken and ACORN: How Liberals are Destroying the American Election System,” put on display the Republican Party’s insistence on staying the course — on doubling down on a failed ideology.
I can’t help but wonder at the logic of conservatives who claim that the reason our nation voted for an unabashed big government liberal is because Republicans simply weren’t unabashed small government conservative enough. Huh? Isn’t that like saying the reason you didn’t get a date to prom is because you weren’t ugly and rude enough?
Two months ago, this page and other editorial pages on far more respected papers claimed that the Republican Party should look at itself in the mirror, and realize it had a big chunk of broccoli in its teeth while it was interviewing for that job. Further, its fly was down. However, instead of a quick mouth rinse and zip up, the Republican Party is trying its best to point out that, yes, indeed, that is broccoli in its teeth, and, yes, it is indeed wearing tighty whiteys.
The Republican party is clinging to the belief that its recent string of electoral and ideological defeats is not due to their ideology, but due to their failure to clearly communicate it. Or as an aptly named seminar on CPAC’s agenda claims “The Key to Victory? Listen to Conservatives.”
Two months ago this column urged the Republican Party to adjust its course. America is better served when its two-party system has two relevant and effective parties. At the moment, half of our vaunted political system is suffering serious ideological wounds. And in a failed attempt at reviving themselves, they’ve decided that bloodletting is the most effective treatment.
Gerald Cox (gcox@badgerherald.com) is a senior majoring in economics.
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Gerald, both Democrats AND Republicans suck. Everyone hates them both equally now. They’ve done their damage, now let’s do ours. No more bailouts. It’s all a money grab! The only way to stop it is with a federal tax revolt. Everybody pay their federal taxes to their home states. Keep the money at home and they can’t touch it…or us. Stop putting your blind faith in politicians. They don’t work for us anymore. They work for whatever powerful lobbies will pay the best bribes.
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Here’s the current issue: Republicans seem like they have no serious investment in the success of the Obama administration. Newt Gingrich can claim some success during the Clinton administration, but tarnished his gains with his political BJ witch hunt at the end. Republicans need to stop using their “gut” to think and start using their college drop-out heads (see Limbaugh, Scott Walker, Sean Hannity).
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If you want a second party in this country, swap out the republican party for some one else who has better ideas. I don’t know who that is at the moment, but I can tell you this, its over for the republicans. Twenty eight years of deregulation and “free” trade have sent us into the second great depression. If we can get out of it quickly it may save the repub’s but if it is protracted and painful the masses will reject repub ideas and they will only win local elections and will be relegated to the trash bin of history. Not taxing the rich by three per cent for the last twenty eight years has taken four trillion dollars away from the middle and lower classes. This and the “free” trade, average seven hundred billion dollar trade deficit during this time have bankrupted the country. Reagan, Bush, Clinton, and Bush will go down in history as the failures that almost destroyed America. Thirty per cent of this country will still worship Reagan and his policies because of his social stance. But the rest of will come to hate him and his minions for the death and destruction he has wroth.
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Gerald,
First, CPAC is not a political action committee, as you erroneously wrote in your article. It is a CONFERENCE; CPAC stands for conservative political action conference.
Second, the reason that conservatives (and the GOP) lost the elections in 2006 and again in 2008 WAS because they did not stick to conservative principals. Bush was not a conservative in many respects. He spent like a drunk sailor…and the people decided that as long as we will continue to see our deficits and debt mount at an alarming rate under republicans OR democrats, they may as well be getting a government handout/welfare check.
Third, the democrats will continue to overreach, starting with and as evidenced by the “stimulus” bill written by ants-in-her-pants Pelosi, which has thrown money at every lib constituency there ever has been. A couple more years down the tracks toward european quasi-socialism, and the even more massive deficits and redistribution of wealth and capital away from productive citizens and toward non-productive ones that will ensue, and America will be done with the false promise of “change” that will pay their bills, fill their gas tanks, pay their mortgage, and “get” the bad Wall Street scum.
Last, you really should listen to the speech that Rush Limbaugh gave on Saturday at CPAC - especially the first half. If you could just set aside all of your negative feelings about Rush as a person, and listen to what he is saying, open your mind for 1 hour, I think that you would see that low taxation, small government, capatalism, and rewarding hard work and self responsibility are what made this country great. We have freed more people from tyranny than any nation in history, we continue to defend freedom around the world, and we give more aid to the rest of the world than any nation in the history of the planet. Our poor are the “richest” poor in the entire world. Most of the “poor” that the president speaks of have, for the most part, shelter, food, warmth, electricity, and many have cell phones, transportation, cable tv (or even broadcast tv), and healthcare at any emergency room the walk into. And we have only been a country for a couple hundred years. Penalizing hard work and productivity, as Obama is talking with his tax cuts on the “rich” (produtive) citizens, and rewarding less productive citizens with welfare (if you paid NO taxes into the system, but get a tax “refund,” it is a welfare check) is not what made this nation the greatest in the world. How did we do it? Listen to Rush from Saturday at CPAC.
While we are not perfect, there is no place in the world that I would rather be a citizen than the United States of America. President Obama’s proposals are not continuing the PROVEN success of America’s ways. They are moving the country away from those principals and strategies.
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Nice article Gerald.
What do you think about Jonathon Krohn, the 14-year-old “political prodigy” that spoke at CPAC? Does he make viable points that republicans should listen to, or is he just spewing the same republican strategies verbatim?
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None would have happened if America was a socialist country.
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A liberal lecturing conservatives to “come to the political middle”…. yawn…
The definition of “conservatism” hasn’t changed, nor does it need to.
We don’t need to reinvent anything. These principles are sufficient. We have allowed the ‘party’ to abandon the core principles in search of liberal appeasement and middle ground appeal. As the current climate demonstrates, this doesn’t work.
As for liberals, this is the Obama Era of Progressive politics.
Let’s see how much Progress we’ve made so far…….
Feb 10 2008: A relatively unknown Obama announces he will run for president. On Monday 2/11/08, The Dow Jones Industrials closed at 12,240 points, up 54 points.
Aug 29 2008: Obama becomes the democrat presidential nominee. The Dow tumbled 177 points to 11543.55.
Nov 5th 2008, vote tallies confirm Obama elected president.
On November 5th and 6th, the Dow Jones dropped a total of 929 points (nearly 10%), the two days immediately following the presidential election. The Dow dropped over 486 points on November 5 and an additional 443 points on November 6, closing below 8,696. The US markets vote ‘No Confidence’ in an Obama presidency.
Jan 20th 2009, Inauguration Day. The US markets vote ‘No Confidence’…. Again! The Dow Jones lost 4% (332 points) to close at 7,949; the S&P 500 fell 5.2% (44 points) to 805; the Nasdaq tumbled 5.8% (88 points) to end at 1,440; and the Russell 2000 plummeted 7% (32 points) to finish at 433. It was the Dow’s worst Presidential Inauguration Day drop in its history and pushed the S&P to its worst start to a year.
Feb 17 2009, Obama signs democrat ‘Stimulus Package’ into law. As Obama $igned his $787 billion $timulu$ bill and democrat$ were dictating restructuring plans to US automakers, the Dow Jones industrial average closed down another 297.81 points, or 3.79 percent, at 7,552.60 - its lowest close in five-and-a-half years. The US markets vote ‘No Confidence’…. Again!
Monday, Feb 23 2009 As Obama and the Democrats are nationalizing the banking system along with the health care system, the Dow Jones Industrials went down another 225 points. The Dow closed at 7140. The US markets vote ‘No Confidence’…. Again!
Monday, March 2, 2009 The Obama 2010 budget is published on-line. The Dow Jones Industrials Index dropped another 180 points to 6900, the lowest level in 12 years. The US markets vote ‘No Confidence’…. Again!
The correlation is quite striking! Since Obama threw his ‘hammer and sickle’ into the presidential ring one year ago, the US Dow Jones Industrials market index has lost 5340 points, or 44% in value. The large drops following each significant event in Obama’s rise to power show correlation as well as ‘cause and effect’.
Obama told Joe the Plumber he “supported redistribution of wealth”, reflecting his true marxist values.
Less than 2 months after taking office, he has achieved that goal….
Now we are ALL poor!
Hope….. Change…. Insanity.
Invictus Maneo
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The free market in ruins? Shows a lack of education…did you expect a smooth ride through infinity? I mean seriously - and I’m not going to even get into the regulatory role.
Also, it seems you forget how tight the race really was. I’d honestly say it’s the democrats that are in trouble. They believe that failed socialist tendencies were voted for, when it was the man, the voice, the chant (yes we can), that was voted for. The opportunity for someone to own a slice of history and say - yeah I voted for him.
You have a host of cognitive errors in your piece but most important is the narrative fallacy. Look it up.
Lastly - I’m young and closest to republican - socially liberal (liberal here meaning I want less government intervention - oddly - normally a conservative position) and fiscally conservative (meaning I understand economics very well, and how dangerous a tool it can be - and favor “free as possible” markets - like any thinker should). There are a lot of people out there like me when you peel back the onion. You’re looking in the wrong places, and have a whole lot to learn. Show me the successful socialist experiment. Where is Obama’s model?
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“Republicans seem like they have no serious investment in the success of the Obama administration”
WTF???
Were the Democrats invested in the success of the Bush administration?
The Democrats were almost treasonous in time of war, much less ever did anything to help Bush, or to help the USA. They were all about trashing Bush no matter how that affected the USA.
Everything was going great until the Democrats took over Congress. It’s been downhill ever since, with a horrible increase in the downward slope since Barry HO was elected.
Democrats, including White House Budget Director Peter Orszag, continued to pound George Bush this weekend for the failed policies of the last 8 years.
Those failed policies dropped the deficit 4 of 8 years Bush was president, held an average unemployment at 5.2%, saw the strongest productivity growth in 4 decades and witnessed robust GDP growth.
Bush was able to do this despite 9-11, a recession he inheritied, wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and Hurricane Katrina.
He did this by cutting taxes and giving people back their own money to invest. If only we could be so lucky to have those failed Bush policies today.
Instead we’ve Democrats who are determined to spend their way out of this recession. http://gatewaypundit.blogspot.com/2009/03/ugh-dow-dips-below-7000-thanks-barry.html
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2:49, I love this new line from the Right, “both parties are bad.” For 8 damn years, I couldn’t convince any of my Republican friends that the Bush administration was incompetent; now, however, it seems to be common knowledge amongst both parties.
As a Democrat, I am so far pleased with the actions of the Obama administration. I’m most pleased, particularly with the recent Iraq strategy, that Obama did not choose to concede to the far Left. Furthermore, if Obama and the congress were allowing GM, Citi, and AIG to fail through the “free market,” the GOP would be providing us commentary with the ills of a do-nothing president and congress.
Regardless, I will not always agree with the decisions of Democratic leaders, and I will have no problem voicing my concerns DURING the issue. I will not, unlike our lemming-like Republicans, follow a failed leader off a cliff and complain years later about HOW DAMN WET WE ARE NOW.
So, Republicans, if you are losing your job, DO NOT whine about government hand-outs and spending on “the poor,” especially if you ARE poor and needy.
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Pelosi-Obama-Reid (POR) Economy: Tanks a Lot! http://tiny.cc/aAZfw
The POR economy kicked in during the latter part of last June, when its architects — Nancy Pelosi, Barack Obama, and Harry Reid — decided that starving the economy of energy by refusing to allow more offshore drilling in the face of $4 gas prices was a winning political position. Pelosi claimed that because we couldn’t totally “drill our way out of this,” we shouldn’t increase drilling at all. Reid put an exclamation point on Pelosi’s stubbornness by insisting that fossil fuels are “making us sick.”
This turndown has been much more severe than it should have been because of a serious breakdown in “the rules of the game.” Why invest in, start up, or expand any kind of business if there’s a realistic possibility that the government will aid your direct or indirect competitors, or otherwise radically and whimsically alter the playing field? This uncertainty has also taken its toll on consumers. Despite having billions of extra dollars available thanks to energy price drops and lower interest rates, their spending appears not to be ramping up proportionally.
The solution from Washington? More bailouts, leading to more uncertainty across the board. Another bigger “stimulus” and a less effective one at that. While tax “rebate” checks such as those sent out last year are not as effective as across-the-board rate cuts, at least they put money into consumers’ pockets quickly. But the new “stimulus” package evolving in Washington is dominated by public “investments” that, even if justified, would take much longer to make their way into the economy.
Roosevelt tried massive public works programs during the Depression. All he did is prolong it for seven years. Japan tried government stimulus for 10 years running in the 1990s. It only resulted in “the lost decade.”
What Pelosi, Obama, and Reid should do is expand the tax cut element of the stimulus plan to include all incomes, ditch almost all of the alleged “investments,” open up oil and gas exploration, and, eventually, watch the royalty money pour in. I know; that’s way too much to “hope” for.
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We’re you at CPAC this past week? You simply looked at the agenda, probably caught the two second clips from CNN and made your assessment of the entire conference. I was there and what I can tell you is that the conservative movement, that is not the Republican Party (there is a difference which you do not really seem to make; conservative is a political ideology and Republican is a political party.), has not changed and never has changed. Sure there have been outgrowths since the initial conception of what we now consider conservativism; such as, neoconservativism, social conservativism, libertarian conservativism, ect. Over the course of two days at the conference, conference-goers could participate in the straw poll which asked questions such as, “Who do you want to run for President in 2011?”, “Which one of these issues is most important to you?” and the like. Needless to say, Mitt won for the third year in a row over the likes of Palin, Ron Paul, Newt Gingrich, Mike Huckabee, ect. But what is an interesting measure is that 44% responded that they were unsatisfied with the field of potential candidates. That is nearly half the people which is a staggering number. Furthermore, the issues that people listed as the most important were the following: reducing the size of government; reducing government spending, the war on terrorism; and, lowering taxes. Those have always been the core principles of the conservative movement (supplanting terrorism for communism). These are the principles that Barry Goldwater ran on and the very same principles that got Reagan elected, and dare I say, what President Bush said while campaigning for the 2000 election. While Reagan was principled and stuck to these principles, President Bush sort of pushed to be a quasi-socialist version of a conservative that ballooned the size of government. In this past election, the election of Obama and the defeat of McCain is not a knock on conservative principles or a sign that conservativism is “dead”. This is because the party did not have a conservative as the standard bearer; McCain is not a conservative. Conservative values triumphed across the nation in local and state elections. Examples of this are the marriage laws that passed in California and Florida.
And for the record, the panels that you simply mention their name and make an assessment off that is a bit comical, especially for a journalist. I believe the old adage, “Don’t judge a book by it’s cover”, is highly applicable here.
It would do you best to separate what “republicanism” and “conservativism” is because they are not the same. Maybe that wasn’t your doing, Gerald; just the editors who are just that stupid.
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“[Bush] spent like a drunk sailor” Really, Bush was writing legislation? Wrong, son, the recently re-conservative Republicans were spending like drunken sailors, so now no one sees their crocodile tears.
As for Obama causing the Dow Jones to fall, Invictus, you are pathologically deluded. What happened on Monday 9/29/08? The Dow dropped almost 778 points, which beat the previus loss of almost 685 on the first trading day after 9/11 (both days, whack-jobbus maneo, occurred during the Bush-might-be-Jesus administration… you’re right, it was either Clinton or Obama’s fault —- it’s not you who’s crazy, it’s everyone else).
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Obama is a fraud. He does not represent real change. Most of the stuff he differs with Bush is on really obvious stuff like caring about minorities and poor people. Take Israel. He blindly supports them as much as Bush did even though they killed about 700 civilians in Palastine. Also like Bush, Obama enjoys giving money to coporations except he is calling it a ‘bailout’. The only thing this bailout is doing is ensuring that coporatate executives have enough money to go on vacations.
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“What happened on Monday 9/29/08? The Dow dropped almost 778 points…”
I’d say that was the day that the market decided that BHO was going to win.
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6:48, no. That was the day the House failed to pass a stimulus bill. You know, the one McCain rushed back to Washington to personally endorse?
Quick, call Limbaugh for another thought injection.
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Seriously? “In sum, however, the conference was a sad and discouraging microcosm for the macrocosm that is the ideology of the Republican Party.” Were you there? I failed to notice your presence at this year’s CPAC. I, however, was there and seem to remember things unfolding quite differently than you state in your article. This year’s CPAC was the largest ever, and it also had the largest student attendance on record. The republican party is excited and ready to start rebuilding for 2012, sorry to burst your liberal media buying bubble - we’re here to stay! And as far as I am concerned CPAC WAS AWESOME! It was the FARTHEST thing from sad and discouraging this is OUR country and we are ready to take it back from nancy ants in her pants pelosi sooner than you may thing
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12:27, I’m not from the Right. I’m actually a disenfranchised Democrat. I’ve always hated Republicans. Now I hate Democrats just as much. Hey, don’t be offended. Most Americans are neither. We simply vote for the candidate that seems to be the lesser evil. No one is required to be a party loyalist. To expect loyalty in a democracy is, well, undemocratic. You’re welcome to change lanes anytime, as long as the road you’re on doesn’t lead you off the edge of the Earth, which is something we all worry about every election.
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“We simply vote for the candidate that seems to be the lesser evil.”
This time was different. We voted for a president. I think you need to wait at least 2 months for Obama to fix 8 years of Bush policies (read, sarcasm… this will take a while).
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“the day the House failed to pass a stimulus bill”
And how has the market done since the “stimulous” bill was passed? Or the next one? Or the one after that?
PS. The “McCain rushed back to Washington” was one of his bigger mistakes that led to Barry HO winning - so I stand by my contention that the market was reacting to news indicating a BHO win.
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7:12, I know you were being sarcastic, but most of Obama’s supporters are actually naive enough to think he can do it. I don’t wanna be around when they finally realize it’s all been just a liberal’s wet dream. Right now I don’t trust anybody in Washington. Personally, I’d rather go with that blue state secession idea everybody was talking about in 2004.
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Dude, where’s my honeymoon rally? http://tiny.cc/PVq5H
The market has notably plunged since Mr. Obama introduced his budget last week, and that should be no surprise. The document was a declaration of hostility toward capitalists across the economy. Health-care stocks have dived on fears of new government mandates and price controls. Private lenders to students have been told they’re no longer wanted. Anyone who uses carbon energy has been warned to expect a huge tax increase from cap and trade. And every risk-taker and investor now knows that another tax increase will slam the economy in 2011, unless Mr. Obama lets Speaker Nancy Pelosi impose one even earlier. Meanwhile, Congress demands more bank lending even as it assails lenders and threatens to let judges rewrite mortgage contracts. The powers in Congress — unrebuked by Mr. Obama — are ridiculing and punishing the very capitalists who are essential to a sustainable recovery. The result has been a capital strike, and the return of the fear from last year that we could face a far deeper downturn. This is no way to nurture a wounded economy back to health.
Listening to Mr. Obama and his chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel, on the weekend, we couldn’t help but wonder if they appreciate any of this. They seem preoccupied with going to the barricades against Republicans who wield little power, or picking a fight with Rush Limbaugh, as if this is the kind of economic leadership Americans want.
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Obama lied; the economy died http://tiny.cc/JazQ2
If President Obama were to try to misrepresent his positions for the next four years, there would be nothing he could say that would approach the inaccuracy of his claim last week that he is not for big government. It is the essence of the man and his presidency. He doesn’t like America the way it has been since its founding - and it will take an abusively big government to realize his dreams of converting America into something quite different. If you don’t know that, you don’t yet know Barack Obama.
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The President, shock and awe, and Tertullian http://tiny.cc/itNH4
Many people, I believe, have been stunned by the President’s behavior in his first weeks in office. It’s been a shock and awe performance. Historians of this period will look back in wonder: how ever did a new President waltz into office and, before he had even finished unpacking, extract $800,000,000,000 from taxpayers for partisan spending programs? Partly, it was a matter of successful rebranding: the President managed to convince some important people that his spending package was really a stimulus package, i.e., something that would help the economy, not hobble it. We know better now, having just suffered the largest post-inauguration market rout in history. But those historians will note with interest how, even at the beginning of March, some reputable commentators still referred to the President’s poverty program as “stimulus package.”
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The stimulus bill is not the problem. Barack Obama, Jimmy Carter, George Bush, and Bill Clinton are not the problem. You must understand, also, that this is not just an American problem, so your assertions of pervasive socialism causing economic disruptions is obsurd. Toyota wants a $2B bailout from Japan, so how does that relate to GM needing money?
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@10:02 10. Secure borders. Deportation of illegals. Si se puede.
I read this as “Immigrants are really scary.” It just makes me think of a white stripes lyric. “Well Americans, what? Nothing Better to do? Why don’t you kick yourself out you’re an immigrant too.” If you insist that everybody picks themselves up by their own bootstraps (see value #8), you must respect illegal mexican laborers. I once saw a 60 Minutes piece about chile pepper growers in New Mexico (i’m not sure if it was 60 minutes or chile peppers, but i’m confident on new mexico) where the owners of the farms COULDNT GET ENOUGH LABOR TO PICK THEIR PEPPERS. If nobody wants the jobs, and it’s hurting american farmers by leaving produce rotting on the vines, how can you possibly square this anti-immigrant philosophy? We need a path to citizenship.
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Hey 7:20
Please review the facts here:
http://directorblue.blogspot.com/2009/02/wisdom-of-crowds-and-obamanomics.html
If we zoom into the September-to-November timeframe, we’ll see something very enlightening. By late September it was increasingly clear to Intrade.com bettors that Obama was going to win the election. From 9/28 to 9/29 Obama’s Intrade price went from 57 to 61, which represented a huge jump.
Note what happened to the stock market at nearly the exact same time. Around September 29th the market began its collapse. Mapping the political events to the market’s reactions make the effects crystal clear.
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“$800,000,000,000 from taxpayers for partisan spending programs”
How much did the Bush tax cuts cost? $1.4 TRILLION?
Wow! Kettle, meet pot.
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Key quote: I’ve yet to meet an immigrant who went through proper channels who wasn’t embittered by the experience.
http://www.reason.com/blog/show/130941.html
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http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123604419092515347.html
The Obama Economy As the Dow keeps dropping, the President is running out of people to blame.
As 2009 opened, three weeks before Barack Obama took office, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 9034 on January 2, its highest level since the autumn panic. Yesterday the Dow fell another 4.24% to 6763, for an overall decline of 25% in two months and to its lowest level since 1997. The dismaying message here is that President Obama’s policies have become part of the economy’s problem.
Americans have welcomed the Obama era in the same spirit of hope the President campaigned on. But after five weeks in office, it’s become clear that Mr. Obama’s policies are slowing, if not stopping, what would otherwise be the normal process of economic recovery. From punishing business to squandering scarce national public resources, Team Obama is creating more uncertainty and less confidence — and thus a longer period of recession or subpar growth.
The Democrats who now run Washington don’t want to hear this, because they benefit from blaming all bad economic news on President Bush. And Mr. Obama has inherited an unusual recession deepened by credit problems, both of which will take time to climb out of. But it’s also true that the economy has fallen far enough, and long enough, that much of the excess that led to recession is being worked off. Already 15 months old, the current recession will soon match the average length — and average job loss — of the last three postwar downturns. What goes down will come up — unless destructive policies interfere with the sources of potential recovery.
And those sources have been forming for some time. The price of oil and other commodities have fallen by two-thirds since their 2008 summer peak, which has the effect of a major tax cut. The world is awash in liquidity, thanks to monetary ease by the Federal Reserve and other central banks. Monetary policy operates with a lag, but last year’s easing will eventually stir economic activity.
Housing prices have fallen 27% from their Case-Shiller peak, or some two-thirds of the way back to their historical trend. While still high, credit spreads are far from their peaks during the panic, and corporate borrowers are again able to tap the credit markets. As equities were signaling with their late 2008 rally and January top, growth should under normal circumstances begin to appear in the second half of this year.
So what has happened in the last two months? The economy has received no great new outside shock. Exchange rates and other prices have been stable, and there are no security crises of note. The reality of a sharp recession has been known and built into stock prices since last year’s fourth quarter.
What is new is the unveiling of Mr. Obama’s agenda and his approach to governance. Every new President has a finite stock of capital — financial and political — to deploy, and amid recession Mr. Obama has more than most. But one negative revelation has been the way he has chosen to spend his scarce resources on income transfers rather than growth promotion. Most of his “stimulus” spending was devoted to social programs, rather than public works, and nearly all of the tax cuts were devoted to income maintenance rather than to improving incentives to work or invest.
His Treasury has been making a similar mistake with its financial bailout plans. The banking system needs to work through its losses, and one necessary use of public capital is to assist in burning down those bad assets as fast as possible. Yet most of Team Obama’s ministrations so far have gone toward triage and life support, rather than repair and recovery.
AIG yesterday received its fourth “rescue,” including $70 billion in Troubled Asset Relief Program cash, without any clear business direction. (See here.) Citigroup’s restructuring last week added not a dollar of new capital, and also no clear direction. Perhaps the imminent Treasury “stress tests” will clear the decks, but until they do the banks are all living in fear of becoming the next AIG. All of this squanders public money that could better go toward burning down bank debt.
The market has notably plunged since Mr. Obama introduced his budget last week, and that should be no surprise. The document was a declaration of hostility toward capitalists across the economy. Health-care stocks have dived on fears of new government mandates and price controls. Private lenders to students have been told they’re no longer wanted. Anyone who uses carbon energy has been warned to expect a huge tax increase from cap and trade. And every risk-taker and investor now knows that another tax increase will slam the economy in 2011, unless Mr. Obama lets Speaker Nancy Pelosi impose one even earlier.
Meanwhile, Congress demands more bank lending even as it assails lenders and threatens to let judges rewrite mortgage contracts. The powers in Congress — unrebuked by Mr. Obama — are ridiculing and punishing the very capitalists who are essential to a sustainable recovery. The result has been a capital strike, and the return of the fear from last year that we could face a far deeper downturn. This is no way to nurture a wounded economy back to health.
Listening to Mr. Obama and his chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel, on the weekend, we couldn’t help but wonder if they appreciate any of this. They seem preoccupied with going to the barricades against Republicans who wield little power, or picking a fight with Rush Limbaugh, as if this is the kind of economic leadership Americans want.
Perhaps they’re reading the polls and figure they have two or three years before voters stop blaming Republicans and Mr. Bush for the economy. Even if that’s right in the long run, in the meantime their assault on business and investors is delaying a recovery and ensuring that the expansion will be weaker than it should be when it finally does arrive.
IP hash: f6d3c493
3:14pm: If there are jobs in this country that no American wants, fine, let the temporary guest workers have them. But when illegals get good-paying jobs that Americans need, using an American’s Social Security number and doesn’t pay taxes on the income they earn (if you’re already an illegal, why would you pay any taxes at all?) then it’s time to do something about it. How’d you like to have the IRS hounding you for back taxes on income you didn’t earn from a job you never had? I’ll tell ya right now, the IRS will definitely try to collect from you, even though they know you’re a victim of identity theft, just to see if they can get away with it. Uncle Sam’s got his own bills to pay, so what the hell.
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“How much did the Bush tax cuts cost? $1.4 TRILLION?”
So any money that the government doesn’t take out of my pocket is a “cost”??? So all income really belongs to the government???
So any of MY income that they let me keep is a gift?
Obama will make us all “rich”, since he will only be taxing the “rich”.
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Listen very careful Gerald Cox. It should be “If you’re a political party whose spectacular candidate for 20th Congressional Election is refuses to accept his responsibility even documents proved that he has unpaid taxes, shall we put him in jail?
If you’re the Republican Party, the answer is YES.
Then.. If you’re Democrat Party, probably you’ll seek advice to your Daddy Barack Obama to file a bail for him, right? Well, Your Daddy Barack is going down very similar to your Uncle Bush administration. And what are you going to say? In just a month Obama made an economic recovery plan? Well, it will turn out to futility. It nothing in the package. I’m telling you. If that will continue, we’re in a moment of tragic economic downfall. And what’s next for the American people? Giving Tax credits for tuition fees? Better talk to Scott Murphy and tell him to pay his unpaid taxes, that will work even a least.
Scott Murphy for Congress Tax Liens
IP hash: 79388cc9
Nader 2012?
Anyone? Bueller?
IP hash: 08bcbc8a
Oh bash away at us “the broccoli in teeth, whitey tighty” Republicans all you want. So we lost the last election…piss off. We’re not going anywhere and we’ll keep fighting for freedom until the very end.