Opinion
Escalating crisis imperils region
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North Korea has finally created the explosive notice to the international community that it has been wanting. On Monday, the reclusive Communist nation announced it had detonated a nuclear weapon underground in Hwaderi, 240 miles north of Pyongyang. North Korea's ambassador to the United Nations, Pak Kil-yon, described the tests as "very, very successful" and able to contribute "to the maintenance and guarantee of peace and security in the peninsula and the region."
While many would have said that at the end of last week, with the Democratic People's Republic of Korea dangling the threat of a nuclear test, the situation could not be any more tenuous, and seems to have drastically changed for the worse. Many have speculated about the potential ramifications of a North Korean nuclear test and none of the scenarios portend a positive outcome. One potential result, and the one most talked about, is a renewed arms race focused in Northeast Asia among countries that feel the need to be independent nuclear powers in order to defend themselves against possible aggression. Countries such as South Korea, Japan and Taiwan all might step up their nuclear development capabilities in order to counter the apparent advantage of North Korea.
The scariest scenario resulting from this situation is the increased chances of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East. The Bush administration has already expressed concern that North Korea is more likely to transfer nuclear arms to a state or non-state actor in the Middle East and that it would hold them equally accountable for any event that would occur as a result. This is not an entirely implausible scenario because if the resulting sanctions imposed upon North Korea create a paranoid frenzy in the Communist government, the probability that they will resort to desperate measures in order to bring the United States back to the bargaining table will only increase.
While this is certainly a difficult situation for the U.S. and the U.N., it is not yet intractable. With the appointment of South Korean Foreign Minister Ban-Ki Moon as Secretary-General of the United Nations, the international body finds itself surprisingly well equipped to deal with a crisis in Northeast Asia. The new secretary-general will be as familiar with North Korea as anyone in the United Nations and will have the support of the Security Council. The Security Council member nations have all denounced the test and many have stated that a strong reaction is necessary.
Furthermore, China's belief that it held sway over its Communist ally has been shaken, creating a solid opportunity to convert the country into a more potent ally able to moderate North Korea's stance. China is an especially important state actor in this situation, as its trade relations with North Korea are largely the impetus for keeping the junior Communist state an economically viable entity. With a less supportive China and the potential for the most serious repercussions it has faced yet from the international community, the rogue nation finds itself in an even more isolated state.
For this situation to come to a safe resolution, the United States might have to follow a course it has been trying to avoid: returning to bilateral talks. As the focal point for North Korea's ire, the United States has the power to mitigate an already reactionary government without appeasing it to the point of hubris. By leveraging the importance of China's trade to the country, the U.S. could get North Korea to accept stringent trade and military sanctions in return for the United States' return to the table, which has long been a goal of the country anyway. By forcing the acceptance of sanctions with the inclusion of meeting one of North Korea's most longstanding requests, the U.S. can reduce the risk from the country without causing the leadership to completely lose face. But whatever the U.S. and the U.N. choose, it must been done quickly and convincingly, before North Korea escalates its acts of desperation even more.
Mike Skelly (meskelly@wisc.edu) is a senior majoring in finance and political science.
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The NRA says that our country would be safest if everyone carried a gun. Well, NRA and Republican cohorts, that logic makes me believe that our world would be safest if every country had nuclear weapons.
Oh my gosh! A country that doesn't like us has weapons that can hurt us. Call our allies... wait, we flushed them down the drain by going to Iraq.
Who's the rogue nation now?
I think the UN rep from NK said it best (I paraphrase) when he said the UN should congratulate them rather than pass more useless resolutions. Everyone knows the UN is worthless, funny how NK is the only one who is will to voice that opinion.
Sad to say but I am going to be ROFLMA when the North Koreans invade the South and loot the place. There won't be a damn thing we can do about it - thanks to Clinton and Mr. Peanut.
I say bring the troops home from everyplace, put them on our borders and let NK know that they'll end up as a glass parking lot if we ever connect them to an attack on the USA.
Can someone please tell me what NK or KJI would possibly gain from nuking ANYONE? If they even invaded Cuba, Palestine, Israel, or the US, the entire world population would crush them. If KJI is smart enough to goose-step, he's smart enough to know that any imaginary benefit that might exist would be immediately outweighed by the enormous pain and suffering that would fall upon him.
Reason would suggest that they're developing it as a deterrent so that they don't become the next Iraq. After all, isn't deterrence the reason we have thousands of nuclear weapons?