Opinion

Turkey needs to jump on the bandwagon

U.S. war planners were dealt a blow March 1, as the Turkish Parliament rejected a bill to allow the United States to use military bases in the southern portion of their country. The bill fell three votes short. But, if passed, it would have meant as many as 62,000 American combat troops could have been based in Turkey to open a northern front against Iraq.

Turkey is the only Muslim country with both strategic value in the Middle East and any semblance of a democracy. The surprise defeat of the bill that would have opened up a northern passageway to U.S. troops in exchange for $15 billion in loans and grants, may be a victory for democracy, as polls show as many as 94 percent of the Turkish people are against a war with Iraq.

Despite the overwhelming majority of Turkish citizens against a war, it is still puzzling to try and understand why the Parliament would have voted against this bill when the future of Turkey is extremely dependent on U.S. support.

Turkey unquestionably knows the United States will go to war with Iraq, with or without Turkey’s backing, if the United States feels a war is the only way to ensure total disarmament by Iraq and to force a regime change.

U.S. government officials have said they can fight a war and win without Turkey’s support. But the war would likely be bloodier and longer because of the logistical and strategic inconveniences lack of Turkish cooperation would create.

It was the United States who applied pressure to France, Germany and Belgium just weeks earlier when these three nations vetoed NATO protection for Turkey in case of Iraqi aggression.

The impact of another war on Turkey’s economy would likely be devastating because of the flood of Iraqi refugees. It was devastating in 1991 during the first Gulf War. This time, the United States is prepared to give Turkey $15 billion in loans and grants to cushion the impact a war in the region would have on Turkey’s economy.

Turkey has also been seeking U.S. support to secure billions of dollars of future loans. American support was crucial when the country went through an economic crisis in 2001. The political support Turkey has received from the United States in their quest to join the European Union could also be in jeopardy.

The U.S. government will be less likely to use its political capital to help Turkey in the future if the United States cannot receive support from the Turks at times of war.

If Turkey does not offer critical support during a war with Iraq, the United States is unlikely to give them a voice in the post-war restructuring of Iraq. Not having a voice in the rebuilding of Iraq is something the Turkish government fears because of worries that a war with Iraq could lead the Kurdish refugees in northern Iraq to declare themselves an independent state, which could inspire Turkey’s own Kurdish minority to follow a similar path.

In the days following the surprising vote again U.S. troop deployment, the Turkish economy took a major hit. On Monday, Turkey’s stock market plunged 12.5 percent and the Lira, the country’s currency, lost 3 percent to the U.S. dollar.

Some economists, including Tevfik Aksoy of Global Securities, believe the plunge was actually cushioned by the hope that the Turkish government would reconsider a resolution to allow U.S. troops. The economy will likely rebound if Turkey’s parliament reconsiders the bill. If the parliament decides against reconsidering the bill or if the United States decides it cannot wait any longer for a second vote, a further plunge in the stock market would almost be a certainty.

In a potential moment of clarity for the Turkish people and their government, Turkish citizens elected Recep Tayyip Erdogan to parliament with an overwhelming 84.7 percent of the vote this past Sunday.

Erdogan had been the de-facto leader for the Justice and Development Party, Turkey’s governing party. He has also been a strong advocate for U.S. troop deployment in Turkey. He will likely be named the country’s Prime Minister later this week and will be able to remove members in his Cabinet that have dissented on this issue.

Because of this new development, it appears more likely Turkey will join the United States and its coalition of nations who support a war with Iraq if Saddam Hussein forces such a mission to be undertaken. Not only would compliance be a wise move for Turkey’s future, but it will make the potential war safer for U.S. and British troops, Turkish citizens near the Iraqi border and the Iraqi people — something we should all desire.

Matt Modell (mmodell@badgerherald.com) is a senior majoring in journalism and political science.