Researchers at the University of Wisconsin have received a $9.5 million grant that aims to prevent another pandemic of swine flu proportions by identifying virus mutations that could infect humans and spread worldwide.

The five-year grant, provided by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, will assemble scientists under lead researcher and UW professor of pathobiological sciences Yoshihiro Kawaoka to identify influenza virus mutations and prevent a new strain from causing a pandemic.

Dennis Maki, an infectious disease researcher and professor at the School of Medicine and Public Health, said influenza viruses are recombinant, meaning they are generally a mix of bird, swine and human viruses.

Millions of new combinations of these viruses form every day, Maki said, but most combinations cannot be spread between humans. However, when an entirely new strain forms to which humans are susceptible, a pandemic can occur.

To better predict which strains could lead to a pandemic, Kawaoka and other researchers will identify mutations that have the capacity to spread to humans.

Maki said the research will help scientists “get a leg up on” influenza strains and develop vaccines before the strains can cause pandemics, allowing for a more preemptive approach to controlling the spread of influenza.

The most effective way to control and prevent flu outbreaks is by developing vaccinations, which take three to six months to create, Maki said.

“If you could recognize a new strain and know immediately that this strain is going to very likely have the capacity to infect humans, it will help with the three to six month process,” Maki said.

The research will also examine how viruses that typically only infect animals mutate and spread to humans.

Maki said the research is designed to gain a better understanding of such mutations that allow influenza to infect humans and be spread person-to-person.

In an average year, 10 to 20 percent of the population becomes infected with influenza, but in a pandemic year, which occurs every 20 to 30 years, up to 70 percent of the population becomes infected, Maki said.

“We are now in the midst of the pandemic of H1N1 of 2009,” Maki said.

He predicts about one-quarter to one-third of the world — about 1 to 2 billion people — will become infected with the current influenza strain throughout the 2009-10 flu season.

“The improved ability to predict whether a virus has pandemic potential would be an invaluable asset to the global community,” Kawaoka said in a statement. “Millions of lives might be saved if intervention methods … could be implemented early.”

Maki said research conducted under the grant will be part of an informal international surveillance system that tracks the prevalence of influenza, determines which strains are active and identifies mutations.

“Awards like these fund research that has the potential to save many lives,” said UW spokesperson Terry Devitt. “We very much appreciate the confidence of the Gates Foundation in this endeavor.”

The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation writes grants for combating hunger and poverty, improving global health and providing more educational opportunities for Americans.