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Presidential hopefuls’ return to Wisconsin unlikely

With only a week left until Election Day, visits from either presidential candidate seem unlikely as Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama retains a significant lead in the polls over Republican presidential nominee John McCain.

Although the last two presidential elections in Wisconsin have been won by only a couple thousand votes, it looks like this year’s support could be pretty strong for the Democratic candidate.

The lack of visits from either candidate in this crucial week reflects this overarching support.

The Associated Press reported Monday neither campaign is planning to visit Wisconsin between now and Nov. 4. But the two campaigns say this is not quite the case.

Kirsten Kukowski, communications director for the Republican Party of Wisconsin, said they do not have confirmed travel plans, but it is still a possibility that McCain could visit. She added history proves Wisconsin to be a close race, and a win here for the McCain campaign is both needed and wanted.

“It’s important to turn out our base of voters; we can’t have any Republicans sitting at home,” Kukowski said.

The Obama campaign also denied banking on Wisconsin, saying they are continuing efforts here by phone banking, holding early vote drives and canvassing, according to Phil Walzak, Wisconsin communications director for the Obama Campaign.

“Election Day here in Wisconsin has been very close, and we know that it’s a very competitive landscape,” Walzak said. “A return visit to Wisconsin is possible in the next eight days.”

Although possible, the probability of either candidate coming here is unlikely, according to Charles Franklin, University of Wisconsin professor of political science.

What makes a candidate campaign in certain states at this point in the game is the closeness of the race in that location, he said.

“At this moment in the race, Obama has a significant lead,” Franklin said. “If it is a close race, it certainly will be one of the major surprises of the election.”

Obama currently leads McCain in Wisconsin by more than nine percentage points, according to pollster.com, with polls in the last couple weeks by Quinnipiac and SurveyUSA reaching a double-digit lead over McCain.

According to Franklin, Obama does not need to focus on states previously won by John Kerry, such as Wisconsin, because he has strong Democratic support there. McCain, on the other hand, has to ensure support in states won by President George W. Bush, especially battleground states like Ohio and Florida.

“The key is if there is any way for McCain to reach 270 electoral votes, and in order to do that he has to put together Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania or he won’t reach the 270 mark,” Franklin said.

Throughout this election, poll numbers have changed, and it is questionable whether they have significance in predicting election outcome. However, evidence does show that the closer the polls are to Election Day, the more accurate they become, Franklin said.

No matter how close the polls are in Wisconsin, elections are unpredictable and neither campaign will rule out a visit from the candidates, Franklin said.