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New study finds more hurricanes hit Atlantic Ocean

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by Alexandra Rogers

Friday, March 2, 2007

More hurricanes are striking the Atlantic Ocean, an historically low area of activity, according to a new study released by scientists from the University of Wisconsin and National Climate Data Center.

The study, recently published in the Geophysical Research Letters journal, reported hurricane incidents were rising in the Atlantic Ocean while staying relatively stagnant in other oceans.

Though its findings do not necessarily confirm nor refute global warming, the study does add legitimacy to the controversial debate, according to James Kossin, one of the report's lead authors.

"If the Atlantic is the only ocean where the trend is upward, that's telling us something," said Kossin, a research scientist at UW's Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies. "Much of the debate on whether storms are getting stronger in the Atlantic has been based on whether the data is good. Our work at least suggests that the data is good."

The study's co-author, Daniel Vimont, a UW atmospheric scientist, said the motivation of the project was to gain a greater understanding of the relationship between climate change and hurricane activity.

"A lot of the press reports … state that this is new evidence that global warming is affecting hurricanes and that is not the result," Vimont said. "The result is that, in the Atlantic, hurricane activity is increasing, and in other [oceans], it is not clear that [the trends] are substantiated."

Though the report won't solve global warming, Kossin said he hopes its data will help shed light on another lasting debate among environmental scientists.

According to Kossin, the report reveals a more consistent data set, as well as estimates of hurricane intensity and trends based on the new data.

"There's been recent work that … suggests storms (have been) getting stronger over the last 30 years or so," Kossin said. "Scientists [have] been questioning whether the data is strong enough to tell if there's a trend."

According to Kossin, the report reveals the reconstruction of previously inconsistent data in the field since 1983. He added that the report reveals a more consistent data set, as well as estimates of hurricane intensity and trends, based on the new data.

"This is the first time that anyone's gone back and objectively [analyzed the data]," Kossin said. "So, it's quite significant in that respect."

Vimont agreed with Kossin's sentiment, saying more consistent data would positively contribute to the field.

"One problem … is that it is unclear whether the quality of the data is good enough to make a strong statement that says that hurricanes are affected by global warming," Vimont said. "What this paper does is it provides a completely new look at hurricane activity using a different and consistent data set."

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Anonymous (March 2, 2007 @ 5:44pm):

First off, the report is bogus! There is little REAL hurricane data prior to the 1940s. Why? Because we did not send hurricane hunters into the storms and ships were not a great way to get data! Prior to that time, we only knew of storms (and not the intensity) if it hit shore or if a ship got in its way.

There was not satellite data until the 1970s, which is when the best data started being collected. So to say they have gotten stronger in the last 30 (or so) is a crock because there is little comparable data prior to that to really compare it to!! My God people, where is your questioning attitude?

Just an additional comment, hurricanes do not "hit" the Atlantic Ocean, they develope in the Atlantic (and Pacific).

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