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Governor’s races could be crucial

With gubernatorial races getting into full swing around the country, some are already starting to speculate how the outcomes could affect 2008 presidential candidates — especially in swing states like Wisconsin.

Recent polls, including one conducted by Madison's WISC-TV, indicate a close race this November, with Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle leading his Republican challenger, U.S. Rep. Mark Green, by 9 percent.

"Having a Democratic governor helps Democratic [presidential] candidates," said Charles Franklin, a political science professor at the University of Wisconsin. "Where a governor helps is in helping bring together the governor's campaign supporters into the support of the party's presidential nominee."

Franklin, who specializes in election polling, added that a governor's endorsement can be especially helpful in the early nomination contests, when voters know little about the candidates.

"If I knew Doyle endorsed Falk, and I like Doyle … I have an easier time making up my mind," he added.

The Doyle campaign agreed, saying Wisconsin is a major battleground state. In the 2004 presidential election, Democratic challenger John Kerry won Wisconsin by just .38 percent, the closest margin in the country.

"It's critical that Jim Doyle gets re-elected in 2006 for the state to elect a Democratic [presidential] candidate," Doyle spokesperson Anne Lupardus said. "It's important for the obvious reason that a governor can act as a surrogate."

Lupardus also said Doyle could help a Democratic presidential candidate by bringing certain issues to the foreground, such as stem-cell research and health care.

However, Franklin is skeptical of a governor's influence on a presidential election that is out of its nomination stage.

"There is a moderate amount that the governor can do during the primary season, but there is probably less they can do during the election," Franklin said, adding presidential elections are usually driven by big issues and the personalities of the candidates.

"I don't think it's what ultimately swings elections one way or another," he added.

But Green spokesperson Luke Punzenberger took Franklin's argument a step further. He said he does not believe a governor can influence a presidential election — even in the early stages.

"Folks in Wisconsin don't vote for a party — they vote for a candidate," Punzenberger said. "In 2008, those candidates will have to stand on their own merit to win the support of Wisconsin voters."

This November, governors will be elected in all 11 states that were decided by fewer than 5 percent in the 2004 presidential election.