I am not a reckless person. I tend to eat the same thing at Frank's Place, and I can only think of one or two times where I would willingly jump out of a plane. When it comes to fantasy baseball, I tend to err on the side of caution. I'm not sure about this, but that may come from having a father that works in insurance. Case in point, I usually don't risk a whole lot on rookie starters. When draft day rolls around, I pick up one or two that are on successful teams and had success in previous call-ups.

But just like life, fantasy baseball hardly ever goes according to plan. You may need to rely on a rookie pitcher once one of your studs goes on the disabled list. Don't bother saying "None of my guys are injury-prone, I'll be ok." They're pitchers. They get hurt. It's what they do. One small kink in their delivery, and the next thing you know they're serving up home runs left and right. My point is you need to know who you can rely on when things go wrong. Let's get to know some of these trustworthy rookies. A note of caution, however: keep in mind that they are rookies, after all. They all have bad games, and you need to pay attention to their matchups when deciding whether or not to start them.

Michael Pineda

I've been high on Pineda for a little while now, and I hope it's not hard to see why. So far with the Mariners, he's 1-1 with a 2.70 ERA, 0.975 WHIP, and 11 Ks. His minor league track record is phenomenal, where over five years the 22-year-old registered a 2.49 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and averaged almost a strikeout per inning. He's pitched well against two high-powered offenses in Toronto and Texas; the problem has been run support. So while he may not get you many wins, he's more than capable of keeping your ERA and WHIP under control. But wait, there's more: because he plays for Seattle he'll make about half of his starts in Pitcher Heaven, also known as Safeco Field. Seattle may already have a king in Felix Hernandez, but Pineda is the heir apparent. Pineda is owned in only 38.4 percent of ESPN standard leagues, so if he's available go ahead and claim him. He's worth the roster spot even if your pitchers are healthy.

Alexi Ogando

Ogando is certainly seizing the opportunity the Rangers gave him this spring. Both Tommy Hunter and Brandon Webb are hurt, so the outfielder-turned-pitcher was given the job. So far, he is 2-0 with an ERA of 0.00, and a WHIP of 0.538. Those numbers are certainly not sustainable, but Ogando has a track record of success. It looks like Texas made the right decision to make him a pitcher, because his career minor league numbers are outstanding. He has an ERA of 1.37, with a ludicrous 12.6 strikeouts per nine innings. Now, those numbers may be a little skewed because he was a relief pitcher in the minors, but they show that he has a lot of talent. The challenge for Ogando is to stay healthy despite the increase in innings, and to hold onto his rotation spot once Hunter comes back and if Webb is ever healthy again. But for now, Ogando is available in 62 percent of ESPN leagues, so if you need a pitcher who won't hurt you until your team gets healthy, you can do much worse than Alexi Ogando.

Derek Holland

Holland is the forgotten man in the Rangers rotation, but if you need a spot starter you shouldn't forget about him. He was a highly ranked prospect in 2009, but has struggled to find his minor league magic since coming to the big show. His minor league ERA is impressive at 2.47, as opposed to his 5.33 mark in the majors. To me, it looks like he's struggled in the majors because he can't keep the ball in the park. He allowed almost two homers per game in 2009, as opposed to one homer every two games in the minors. But 2011 is a different story. It's so far, so good for Holland, who is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA. More importantly, he hasn't allowed a home run yet. I know it's a small sample size, but if you need a pitcher to fill in for an injured one, take a long look at Holland. He's available in almost 87 percent of ESPN leagues.

I am by no means a perfect person. I say dumb things sometimes, accidentally leave the lights on, and leave the TV volume way too high. When it comes to fantasy baseball, I will never claim to be clairvoyant. I give my best guesses, and I hope most of them will pay off.

But even though I'm not psychic, I can give some advice as the regular season gets into full swing. I've played a lot of fantasy baseball over the years, and I've made my fair share of mistakes. Hopefully you can learn from my previous bad judgment, and take your fantasy team all the way to a championship.

1. Don't Overreact

This is probably the most important thing you can do in fantasy baseball. Keep in mind that it's a marathon, not a sprint, and you'll be fine. For example, I have Albert Pujols on two of my teams this year. He went 0 for 5 yesterday, and ground into three double plays. Should I (or you, for that matter) be worried? Hell no. One game does not make a season, and barring injury, Pujols will hit something along the lines of .320, with 40 home runs and 120 RBI. You also need to keep in mind that many players start slowly, such as Justin Verlander. Over the last three years, Verlander has a 6.30 ERA in the month of April, to go along with a 3-8 record. But you'd be crazy to drop him or trade him after a bad April. Verlander usually figures it out after a month, as his ERA for May sits at a sweet 2.67.

2. Don't make a trade until June

This rule comes with a simple caveat--the only reasons to make a trade before June is if one of your players suffers a season-ending injury, or if another league member blows you away with a desperation deal. Otherwise, I wouldn't even think about it. Why? You really can't get a good sense of what your team is missing until June anyway. Remember that you drafted your players for a reason, and you need to give them a chance to prove themselves.

Here's an example from last year--I drafted Raul Ibanez as my third or fourth outfielder, and he went on to hit an abysmal .221 in April. I dealt him just to get rid of him for a corner infielder that was over-performing. Want to guess what happened? Ibanez went on to hit .283 the rest of the year in a potent Phillies lineup. Learn from this. If you're making a trade just to make one, you're going to get burned. 

3. Know when it's time to say goodbye

This one was the hardest for me to learn. Going into last year, Aaron Hill was one of the highest ranked second basemen after he hit .286 with 36 homers, 108 RBI and 103 runs in 2009. I was convinced Hill could have similar stats in 2010, so I drafted him. He promptly went about his business of hitting .205 over the year, although he did finish with with 26 homers. Normally, a fantasy owner would have dropped Hill and his inability to make it well above the Mendoza line after it became clear Hill's season was lost. But not me: I kept him for the whole year. I was convinced that Hill's season was based on bad luck (it was), and that his power numbers meant the average would creep up to .250 by the end of the year (it didn't). I simply didn't know when to let go.

Hill was a high pick for me, and I wasn't willing to cut him even when I picked up the red hot Kelly Johnson off the waiver wire. This applies to any "sleeper pick" you've made this year, or even a high draft pick. You may be high on Freddie Freeman or Gio Gonzalez this year, but if it becomes clear it's not their year, you need to let go. Or trade him to some sucker (like me, apparently) who believes there's still some potential there-- it's your call.

If you're like me, and for the sake of your grades you shouldn't be, you've been spending a lot of your time doing mock drafts at ESPN.com. And while I might not have much of a life, I figure you have better things to do than try to decide if you should take Josh Beckett or Brian Matusz as your last starting pitcher (Hint: When in doubt, take the veteran pitcher on the better team.)

So I've decided to share with you my crucial, yes crucial, fantasy baseball draft strategy. It's called "positional tiers," and if you want to set yourself up for September glory, it's a strategy you should take to heart. Love it, cherish it, and tell your friends that it doesn't work to keep them confused. Remember, psychological warfare is fair game in fantasy baseball.

In short, the positional tiers strategy centers on the idea that at every position, some players will give you about the same level of production. For example, Stephen Drew may give you a better average than Ian Desmond, but Desmond will give you more stolen bases. In the end, it all evens out. But it's not enough to know which players will produce at the same level; you need to know where players are usually drafted. For example, Drew and Desmond are drafted on average three rounds apart. Unless you desperately need a shortstop, or you have some unreasonable hatred of Desmond, there's no need to reach for Drew in the 11th round.

Let's take a look at one of the shallower positions: third base. The top is pretty easy to define: Evan Longoria, David Wright and Ryan Zimmerman. All three of those guys will give you production in at least four categories, and all three will be taken within the first two rounds. After that, things get a little messy.

I have Alex Rodriguez alone in my second tier. Rodriguez will still be a worthwhile pick at third base, but he's also going to be 35 this year, almost three years past what is usually considered the "prime years" for baseball players. His batting average, stolen base, home runs and run totals have been declining for four years now. If you need a third baseman and A-Rod is available, go ahead and take him, but you need to know going in that A-Rod is now four years removed from his last MVP season.

To be quite honest, my third tier of third basemen scares me more than Justin Bieber's popularity among teenage girls. After A-Rod, I have Adrian Beltre and Jose Bautista. Both of these guys scare me: Beltre only puts up decent numbers in contract years, and he just signed a five-year deal with Texas. Don't believe me? Take a look at this: In years prior to Beltre signing a long-term contract, he averaged an AVG/OBP/SLG line of .327/.376/.591, with 94 runs, 38 home runs and 111 RBI. In non-contract years, he hit .266/.317/.442, with 74 runs, 21 homers and 79 RBI. So you'll have to excuse me for the fact that I'm completely avoiding Beltre this year. If he falls below his average draft spot of No. 36 overall, I might think about it. But otherwise I'll let another team reap his "benefits."

Bautista is a whole different story. I'm reasonably sure that Bautista won't hit 54 home runs in 2011, and if you draft him expecting he will reach even 50 again you're going to be disappointed. I'm in no way alleging that Bautista's power isn't real, but he's going to be 30 this year and is still in his prime. He may have found his power swing last year, and has a good chance to put up about 30 homers again. But Bautista comes with some risks, mainly batting average. Bautista hit .260 last year, and while that's nowhere near Mark Reynolds' atrocious .198, its not a number I'm comfortable with in the fourth round.

After Beltre and Bautista? There's Michael Young, Aramis Ramirez, Martin Prado and Casey McGehee. These four all come with question marks, and probably won't come close to matching the production of the top-tier players. Keep in mind that I've only mentioned 10 players, so in a 10-team league they will all be drafted.

So when you're drafting, and you notice that Ryan Zimmerman is still on the board, go ahead and take him, and know that you're saving yourself some serious third base-related heart trouble. Ranking positions with tiers can and will save your team come draft day. But don't tell my league-mates that.

Spring is right around the corner, and with it comes Major League Baseball. Players are reporting to camps, trying out new pitches, meeting new teammates and getting ready for the 2011 campaign. If you're like me though, you don't play in the majors. I can't throw a 95 mph fastball or hit a major-league curveball, so instead I play fantasy baseball. And just like playing in the majors, preparing in the spring can set you up nicely for a championship run in the fall.

To start out, let's talk about pitching. If you follow baseball regularly, I'm willing to bet you've heard the old saying "pitching wins championships." This idea may work in the pros, but it has a different meaning for fantasy baseball. In my opinion, one of the worst things you can do in a fantasy draft is reach for a top starting pitcher, especially in the first few rounds. For example, let's take a look at Philadelphia's Roy Halladay. Halladay is ranked ninth overall by ESPN, which means that ESPN is projecting he'll be drafted near the end of the first round. But does he deserve to be taken that high? I don't think so, or at least I wouldn't take him there.

I'm not taking anything away from Halladay. He won the NL Cy Young last year, racked up 219 strikeouts, won 21 games, and pitched to a 2.44 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. Those are phenomenal stats, and it's more than likely he'll put up great numbers again in 2011. In fantasy baseball, however, you need saves to win your league. No matter how well Halladay pitches this year, he will not get enough saves (if any) for me to call him a "five-category" player. With your first pick in a fantasy draft, you should pick someone who will contribute in all five categories, and no pitcher can do that.

Mets third baseman David Wright and Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki are ranked right behind Halladay at No. 10 and No. 11. Both of them are "five-category" players, which means that either of them will give you runs, home runs, RBIs, a good batting average and stolen bases. Or, you could try and grab new Red Sox first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, who should be insanely productive in his first season at Fenway. My point is there are still plenty of five-category players available late in the first round, meaning you'll be playing catch-up for the rest of the draft if you reach for an ace too early.

Another factor that keeps me from drafting pitchers early is injuries. Keep in mind that baseball pitchers are repeating an unnatural body motion by throwing a baseball, and even the smallest of injuries can drastically affect a pitcher's performance. I'm aware that injuries happen to everyone, not just pitchers; but you're already taking a risk in the first round by drafting a player who, at his best, will only produce in four of five pitching categories. A prime example is St. Louis' Adam Wainwright. Wainwright pitched 230 or more innings the last two seasons, and was one of the game's best pitchers. He now needs Tommy John surgery to replace damaged ligaments in his elbow, and will not play in 2011. Not even the best pitchers are immune to serious injuries.

So when you're sitting in your draft room with your buddies, and someone like Roy Halladay is still on the board at No. 9, take a step back and think your pick over. Take a five-category player ranked below him, like Wright or Tulowitzki, and know that you're setting yourself up to take home the trophy in October, just like the players down in Florida and Arizona right now.